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EID - risk vs reward... thats what I meant.. with aim there is always a risk of delay.. I always factor that in risks.. GL
I think 33% chance of funding in Oct is better than no f'n chance. Don't you.
UK - people are missing the bigger picture.. HAA delivered PEA as he promised and he is bullish about delivering finance package by end of Oct-20. This would be transformational... less than 5 weeks, risk vs reward etc I continue to hold significant proportion of my PF in gold and in KEFI.. GL
I don't think anyone would complain with 4.5 but quite a few bridges to be crossed first
I must say I burst out laughing when I read your last sentence re funding operations is not an issue - such a statement - it has been the ONLY issue for the last 2 years and still no money but 1.5 billion more shares to split the company between should they eventually get there which obviously is NOT guaranteed and the RNS was actually quite downbeat when compared to previous ones !
Also the TW target of 4.5 is now so so so much less than people who were talking about ten baggers a few months ago -
From over the road
From y'day and fwiw TW remains very bullish on KEFI and talks about the PEA RNS also says to expect more news in a couple of weeks as Harry will be in Ethiopia and expects him to be signing off on TK,also says he believes there will be "a material rerate a really very material rerate before xmas" in fact all in all he is a very excited chappie ????
https://www.*************.com/views/51316/tom-winnifrith-bearcast-no-dan-my-friend-i-can-t-sack-pete-brailey-without-proof
I'm not new to kefi either, and the number of shares is irrelevant to the economics of a raise, and 'dilution' is a very poorly understood concept among retail investors, which I'll deal with in a later post. The main issue right now is that 4/5 months ago the world, but most particularly the market, was in a desperate state. Almost ANY company that tried to raise money in early May was looking at a deep discount on the pricing if they were to be confident of getting it away. Kefi management perhaps panicked a bit under those circumstance, and that's on them to some extent, but this was hardly unusual, especially for small, pre-revenue resource companies which are always thirsty for cash. If you don't understand just how parlous the condition were at the time, then of course you're not going to understand how dramatically those circumstances have improved, especially for Kefi who have delivered on proving up their assets. Read the RNS more carefully. Funding operations is not an issue and if they have to tap the equity market, there will be significant demand at prevailing prices.
Catching up with some reading and noted TW view after yesterday's news ending his piece with;
('As such the current valuation is cracker and, at up to 2.5p, still a strong buy with a target of 4.5p')
A few things - I said new to Kefi not new to shares !
Well the last “small” placing to raise 3.7m (or 3.5 net of expenses) increased shares in issue by 50% - yes 50% - that was 4 months ago so hardly a “history “ lesson. Your confidence that they will be able to raise more money without huge dilution with no TK funding agreed flys in the face of history. The “fact “ that shareholders will have more of the pie post ANS wasn’t some master plan from financial geniuses it was because they couldn’t even raise the 9m from supposed big insurance companies and bank in Ethiopia itself. Finally I am not saying Harry’s objective to is dilute and dilute again simply that he hasn’t been able to get this over the line for the last what 6 or 7 years but still he and the board continue to draw huge salaries paid for by you.
no spare cash sadly to add more - but not worried about placement - also, Harry has more shares than the rest of us put together - why would he want to give away the company?
As announced on 1 July 2020, based on discussions and proposals received to date from specialist mining financiers and Ethiopian investors, Project company, Tulu Kapi Gold Mining Share Company ("TKGM"), is now also seeking to potentially reduce the number of shares it issues to any third party by increasing the amount of funds raised by TKGM from specialist mining financiers in other acceptable forms, and by doing so, increasing existing TKGM shareholders' ultimate beneficial interest in TKGM. This would have the effect of increasing KEFI's beneficial interest in TKGM.
Well said Blue.
This could be a good opportunity to pick up some cheap shares.. Fast forward a few months and we could be double this price IMO
Fresh should say ..private school not very good
I must say its a breath of fress air ..now bluerill is here...someone who actually knows what he is on about..
I'm not 'new', been in the shares for some time, not that that matters a lick. In fact, it's you that's showing his relative naivety. You may think Kefi's benighted early history is somehow unique among greenfield resource companies, but it isn't. Management's missteps, even where you think they 'lied' on funding, were pretty much as common as dirt in this space. Welcome to the world of early-stage mining investments, girlfriend. What is unusual in fact, is the speed with which the company has advanced Ethiopia and now, a promising new discovery in Saudi. So I tell you again: this is now a 35m market cap company with multiple high impact assets and any need for small million pound raises going forward will get done quickly and without any difficulty (or discount), making a mockery of your needless history lesson.
Also hardly gonna book in a media interview for oct if he thinks no chance of good news...and as I said put more in pension only two weeks ago
I don’t know what will happen but we will see!
Presumably that’s why I assume RAB are offering a WC facility to tide them over (which I assume wouldn’t be used if no prospect of deal concluding), but let’s se
I also don’t think vibe was negative , neutral overall but fact Ethiopian govt now putting money in direct new and not discussed
The last 3 or 4 fundraising have been done at steep discounts and the number of shares have risen from around 400m to 2 billion in about 18 months - they have been trying to finalise TK for about 3 years and the latest RNS was lukewarm about prospects compared with previous definite statements of funding That never materialised. I can understand someone new who doesn’t appreciate the dozens of times shareholders have been lied or misled about funding and thinking Kefi a good risk but please look at the RNSa from this time last year. I agree IF they get TK financing finalised there will be a rerate - unfortunately they have a terrible track record, the RNS gave no positive vibe and money is most definitely running out that any financier will surely take advantage of !!
and another thing; the issues around 'funding' for this company revolve ENTIRELY around large-scale project financing. At ANY point in time, given the enormous progress it has made already, if the company needed 2,3,4m quid to fund working capital, I know half a dozen guys would back an equity fundraise in a heartbeat and at little or no discount to the prevailing market price. Some of you have to try and rid yourselves of this idea that a small fundraise like that would involve some kind of catastrophic discount, just bc the previous one was handled so poorly. This is a completely different company now and ALL that matters for the share price is securing major project financing , not tiny raises that may be needed here and there along the way.
I know I haven't posted here before, blah, blah, blah, but for the record, I reckon the reason the shares had such a torrid session, particularly in the late morning, was bc someone(s) overreacted to the 'going concern' section of the footnotes in today's results. I read a number of your posts, though not all, and didn't see this mentioned anywhere, so I apologise if it was. Regardless, I'm pretty certain that - though a number of you mentioned that the market today and yesterday has seen some pretty aggressive selling in small cap AIM across the sector spectrum, particularly those names, like Kefi, that have seen substantial gains over the past few months - the special sauce with this name today was, I'm confident, that one or more holders read that pretty standard language for an early(ish) stage resource company and basically panicked. Ironically, as I have read a million of those auditor-required provisions (usually when cash on hand is less than a year's worth of estimated working capital), and written a few, Kefi's was in fact, pretty bullish. It makes it clear that the board's decision that it was '...appropriate to prepare the financial statements on a going concern basis....' was based on the company having MULTIPLE funding options. What was a bit unusual about Kefi's disclosure in this section was that it was very, very long - 6 paragraphs worth! - with probably more detail than was truly necessary, and it is very possible that our aggressive seller(s) today was/were thinking that somehow the company was trying a bit too hard to convince the market. Regardless, it was in my view, a complete misreading of what was in fact, a pretty puckish outlook for funding the company short- and long-term.