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Nelson &Northern
I too believe that the 2023 year will show the true potential of this share with increased pgm copper and cobalt production,and with profits from Cypress maybe playing a part.
What of 2022-
Chrome will show an increase of at least triple profits as compared to last year
Pgm's is the difficult problem,We now know that production will be more or less the same as last year.Bull points are
1 With the new set up production costs should come down
2 The East limb should be helpful to improve profits
3 Prices are still higher than the first half of last year
4 Production of copper even with the late start should be a lot higher than last year
5 We may also be able to produce some cobalt
The main problem is that prices are now much lower than the second half of last year.
As a person who always hopes for the best outcome I estimate we will show an improved profit on 2021 profits, thus keeping up the company's record of improved profits in each successive year.
Only time will tell.
Nelson - I agree with the comment on the adjusted EPS.
Hard to give numbers on next year as will depend on speed of copper expansion. My read is we will have steady growth in 2022 FY with the substantial copper and cobalt returns hitting in 2023.
That said I would like to see an updated brokers note or company presentation with the latest view.
Northern
Northern Shark
THank you for sharing your findings - very much appreciated. I assumed the £17m Nickel writedown is the reason for the adjusted EPS of 2.25p? Is that your view also having done the long hand?
So at 17p, P/E 7.55! Does anyone have a conservative view of the additional profit we will see in the current year? Would be great to get a consensus view of the forward EPS and hence the forward P/E here with copper, and expanded Platinum to come. Way too cheap and that would still not factor in the Elephants and Cobalt that are already lined up to be subsequent periods of growth.
Not selling anywhere near this level and this is now my largest position in my PF - but would like to see us rise to reflect current profits and growth potential.
GLA
NtD
NtD
Feels like mms may be holding this back
NorthernShark
thanks.
mleshem,
The accounts are more focused on what was delivered in the financial year and the shorter range outlook for copper. Cobalt I am sure will come into focus when Lechwe is in the build phase.
Reading the accounts and listening to Leon on the Directors Talk interview they have delivered a huge amount in engineering and process terms - and continue to do so on the copper side.
I will continue to hold as the market hasn't grasped the scale of opportunity here or the quality of business which Leon and Colin are building.
Northern
Cobalt?
NorthernShark
Thanks for your valuable insight - appreciated.
ATB Shorn
Managed to get throught the accounts and even for someone like me who trained as a management accountant there is a degree of complexity.
The major thing which stands out for me is that they have written off £17m in respect of the Nickel tailings project in Australia which is in the operating expenses line as amortisation rather than an impairment (I would have thought they would). Either way it is a one off and won't be there next year making the comparable profits more significant. Also taking this out gives a better understanding of the true overheads. Strange there isn't any reference to this in the accounts apart from in the intangibles reconciliation (p86) - you would have thought this would have attracted a comment at least in the financial summary.
There are also an estimate £35m of tax losses to carry forward against future periods (p83).
From a balance sheet perspective there is £34.5m in relation to Tjate so getting a deal over the line there will be important in time.
No gremlins from what I can see and imagine what the EPS would have looked like without the Nickel project write off!
Northern