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Qube opened new short position yday May 9th and we are up by 2.2%! So all the sold shares were absorbed by buybacks? If this is the case then I think Qube should close it soon?
And finally, to the trolls here.
It hurts more that you don't earn money or that others do.
Help me count. How much is this in one shorter week?
6.3 pence x 291500 shares
I am happy with this amount, although I count profits or losses after closing the investment. For today, it is just a record of the valuation on the account.
All we can do is wish trolls a happy weekend.
I have my point of view at ITV. Some of my opinion are more ore less optimistic, but they're always forecast. We all depend on external conditions that can be predicted, but also on extraordinary events that we have no idea about. And this is something to remember. However, I believe that, apart from great optimism, most of my forecasts come true, even with a certain delay. ITV needed a specific impulse to shares price grow. I have long predicted that the results for the first quarter of 2024 and the forecasts I thought I would hear would be such an impulse. And the last two days have proven that I was right. Also in that I gave up on stupid discussions with trolls, pointing out that in a few days we will find out who is wrong. Time will tell whether I am right about ITV's future valuation at the end of this or 2025 years. As well as predicting the dynamics of increases at specific price levels in connection with specific events. I will be glad if someone reading my thoughts and maybe even uses my free advice.
In a non-recessionary market, both ITVX and Studios should be generated at least 2-3 times higher revenues. With projected profit margins, the value of ITV as a whole could then easily be put in the range of £5-7 billion. And these are the optimistic forecasts of some analysts, as well as my own. The market is always pricing in the future. Merely entering the FTSE100 index means an increase in the company's value by 10 to 20% in the long run. And this is where the valuation of £1.2-1.5 quickly comes into play. If the company maintains the dynamics of revenue growth at the announced levels, in 2025 its valuation should increase at least three times from the current level, around 75 pence. The upward trends of the current cycle in the UK economy should continue until at least 2027. This bodes very well for future earnings and dividend levels going to shareholders. Of course, all this is a matter of time. But today we are virtually assured of a sharp increase in revenue and profit levels until at least the second quarter of 2025. This will be reflected in the market valuation.
I have already talked about the issue of a possible takeover in the past. It will not happen without the consent and active support of the largest shareholders. This will be realistic for me at a price above £2 per share, strongly supported by current revenues, growing profit and forecast dividend. And this may be possible already in the third quarter of 2025, provided that the company's optimism is fulfilled and external conditions do not delay the entire process. We have a couple potential buyers on the market. If ITV lives up to expectations, others will probably follow. Anyway, it's worth the wait, I guess.
So my optimism results from specific facts (I discussed some of them earlier and omitted them here) and I think we are well on our way to making it come true.
If ITV were an American company listed on the NASDAC market, its valuation today would have long exceeded £2 or £3 and no one would be surprised. From the UK perspective, we know that it is cheap, but we still think that it should and must be so. For me, this is a picture of the immaturity of local investors who wake up after their companies are taken over by others for next to nothing.
Carrington
Time will show who of us was right.
I think that sooner as many people predict.
Pogo - yes some UK value stocks are undervalued and I believe ITV is one of them, I have stated this already in previous posts but putting in mcaps of around 6 or 7b is just daft - you have to be realistic - I want and believe ITV will go up but in reality the company is the studios with ITVX tagged on - it cannot be valued at more than 4b when the studios alone are valued at 3b - 4b mcap is a 100p share price - that is my target and I am then out - gl and please dyor
And technically. One pointer. My forecasted profits for this year, together with the cancellation of 6.5 to 7.5% of the share capital, should result in a drop in the P/E ratio by 35-45%. What will be the effect of this? Please answer this yourself.
Carrington
I read 6 or 7 different studies about ITV fair price. Some of this are paid studies for individual investors (I was able to read it thanks my friend). But you're don't need looking too far as we have similar valuation made by investing.com The media average is around £1.8. Is it to much or to less? If you're be watching on UK market from the perspective of USA, ITV should be valuated minimum from £8.5 to £12 billion (£2.2-£3).
Unfortunately all UK shares market is valued from 30-60% less that should be. And is not only my opinion, as the same opinion comes from companies. This situation in long-term is very bad for the business - makes it difficult to obtain and allocate capital. Fortunately, however, cheap money that distorted the perception and financial processes has become a thing of the past. When the American market comes down to earth and the UK economy confirms its upward direction, we will see a shift of capital from the US to Europe and the UK. This process has already started. So it's worth being prepared for it.
Oh dear, it looks as though Tomtit and his altered egos are having a bad day😄
Pogo - £1.80 val - based on current shares in circulation that gives an implied mcap of 7.16b - Itv Studios worth 3b max which implies the remainder is worth 4b - at 1.50 which is your max estimate its almost 6b - please explain how you have worked that out as it looks like nonsense to me
Everything as expected. The rising recommendations (albeit ridiculous ones) should bring ITV stock to the attention of a wider range of investors, some of whom have invested in the stock before. This, combined with the reasons I have repeatedly mentioned, should firmly anchor price expectations at the minimum range of 76-82 pence. However, I think that due to the growing prospects, we will see stronger than 5% daily growth impulses, just to cut off a potential group of undecided and hesitant investors from the shares. This should move us into the range of ITV share price fluctuations between 82 and 95 pence. No surprise. Just as a reminder, the current market valuation of ITV according to many sources it is undervalued from the fair market valuation at the level £1.3-1.8 depending on the methodology and the adopted valuation method. In addition, a return to the FTSE100 index (realistic at the share price of around £1.1, which I keep reminding you about) will generate additional demand for 200-300 million shares of the company, excluding those "parked" at the moment in FTSE250 index funds. You would have to be naive to think that FTSE100 index funds that are considering this option will start purchasing only after the announcement of the change in index participation. Especially since they are obliged to make such purchases and everything is made automatically by computer's software. As I have already written, analyzing the entire situation, my forecast for this year for ITV is at least £1.2-1.5, and for next year £2-3.00. I f you looking why I suggest to look for detailed explanations in my previous posts.
At the same time, I admit that discussions with multiaccount trolls are below the respect I have for myself, my knowledge and experience. It leads nowhere, because no logical explanation will ever reach an idiot. Rejecting the truth that every forecast remains only a forecast until it is fulfilled, and what matters is its verifiability - will never allow us to make money on the market.
Carrington
I don't want to repeat what I said before.
This shorts are hedging open positions in shares. It's time to finally understand and accept this.
These were the short positions for ITV at cop yesterday - big losses stacking up - Barclays upped their target price for ITV to 85p today - more pain to come for the shorts going forward - can't keep holding forever - any short reduction will fuel the rise north - follow the money - gla dyor etc
https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=ITV%20PLC&land=united_kingdom
"the UK economy is gradually improving" - just to reiterate my comments from yesterday - UK GDP figures just dropped and smashed estimates big time - soon all UK value stocks will be rerated imo - this is one of them -
gla dyor etc
Given todays news on the pension surplus and last month’s renegotiation agreement with Ofcom on the 10 year licence, if ever there was a potential acquirer out there then surely now they’d make a move……….
Carrington,
Yes, the gloomsters, often citing the CEO, have there motives. Keep a clear mind. In my opinion it's a buy, like you I've been topping up and now have a significant holding. The broadcaster expects total ad revenue in the second quarter to be up 12% year-over-year, bolstered in particular by the Euros, which start next month. It all bodes well!
I did say on here yesterday that if advertising shows signs of picking up the share would go north and it has proved to be the case - far too much pessimism on here for my liking, had it not been for the strikes this share would be well above 80p by now - mcap at 3b is an absolute joke when the studios alone have already been valued in a bombed out market at 3b a year or so ago - rates and inflation now falling and the UK economy is gradually improving, all good for future advertising spend - the share is being supported with the buy backs and the Euros are on the horizon providing further support - I have added here substantially over the last year and have absolutely no intention of selling any -
gla dyor etc
New drama should be a big hit, especially as the brilliant Sheridan Smith is to play the protagonist.
Maybe as big as 'Mr Bates vs the Post Office'
https://www.prolificnorth.co.uk/news/sheridan-smith-to-star-in-itvs-i-fought-the-law/
Let’s hope next dividend payment will be more than last years 1.7p , may be just over 2p would be a start.
SP rise is all about the ads.
https://the-media-leader.com/itv-advertising-rebounds-as-content-segment-declines-in-q1/
On the assumption that pensions are honoured in full within the next 15-20 years of course, or that the retirement age itself does not rise higher and higher, at an advanced speed.
The latter scenario is IMO pretty likely. Not that I would put it past them to essentially steal our ISA's in one way or another either. The inflation tax is not going to be enough to this end, IMO.
There is a reason why they make SIPPs so attractive. Cannot help but feel they are like a venus fly trap, the ultimate ponzi scheme....but as long as you are not entirely dependent on a theoretical and full pension pay out in X number of years, then there is not much else you can do. And if it is not too good to be true, then you are laughing all the way to the bank.
Yeah i meant 166% there ;)
And as mentioned - SIPPS are free from inheritance tax - ISAs are not. So my children have greater tax free benefit when working out my IHT.
You lose instant access to the cash which is the main benefit of the ISA, but depending on your age and how close to retirement you are this may matter less...
And example for anyone not understanding...
I take £20,000 out of my ISA
I put £20,000 into my SIPP.
Shortly after my broker adds £5,000 basic rate tax relief into my SIPP.
I now have £25,000 to invest.
When I file my next self assessment tax return I claim higher rate tax relief and receive a tax refund of £5,000.
So the 20k i sent to my SIPP in cashflow terms only cost me £15k and it has £25k of buying power.
£25,000 / £15,000 = 1.66% - thats right an instant 66% profit regardless of what I then invest the funds in.
Or looking at it another way, if I use the funds to buy ITV at 75p - they only cost me 75p / 1.66 = 45p
You can't lose!
And I'm not making this up - google it! Any higher rate taxpayers on here not making use of this incredible tax benefit are frankly mad! :)
Pogo. Taken like a true gent.......
Jedclampit
Don't try to discuss with trolls. Not make any sense.