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Think BP had a fold too many. :)
Although it has been damned annoying it has also given a chance to average down considerably and increase one's holding to allow for the dilution. Risky, maybe, but breakeven is now a lot closer and the benefits are far greater if it works.
Infa a penny.. and all that. :)
Sorry, I should have made clear that I was talking about the last 12 months, which to me was obvious from the accompanying reference to the share price (talking in round numbers) - apologies.
Blair
I am not sure that many on here understand the consequences of a four-fold increase in the number of shares in issue (mirrored by a quartering of the share price - funny, that.. ).
I am not so sue you understand basic maths? if the issue was 1.5B shares pre H & W and now it is 3.5B how does that equate to a four fold increase? I think you need to check that calculator!!
Mr T
I am not sure that many on here understand the consequences of a four-fold increase in the number of shares in issue (mirrored by a quartering of the share price - funny, that.. ).
Institutional investors will have different client bases and different risk profiles, but I believe it is safe to say that many would be more than happy to present their investors with a 100% return; indeed, many would cash in well before that. Of course, the dumping of an entire large holding is unlikely to be achieved at a given price, such a move would precipitate a drop in the share price by itself, but to corrupt an old adage - if you are going to panic, panic first!
Any jump in the share price is likely to be met by a sell-off, after which a yo-yo effect will be set in motion. There are now simply too many shares in issue for any hope of a short- or medium-term increase in price.
I remain mildly optimistic about the future for H & W, purely because politics always trump both economics and common sense. As for Islandmagee, I fear the worst. The blatant disregard by the board for (self-imposed) milestones and the accompanying lack of communication to the market are, to my mind, unforgivable. In fact, I believe that these should have regulatory consequences for the directors responsible in any company.
Yes, I am bitter at sitting on a 50%+ loss here. I continue to hold, as I still see this as the better option, but I rue the decision not to bail at a slight loss when the H & W news offered a brief spike (not to mention my finger not falling on the "sell" button in January...).
Dawski,
You clearly state that year end targets are now not attainable in your post. I must ask, if you are not privvy to inside information how you can state that the yearend targets are not attainable. My point is, if you know this, the bod clearly must know this, so why haven’t they informed the market. I agree the timelines are now probably out of the window on this, but, I also think this should be out in the open. We have had no news on IM for over 6 weeks now when it was announced in the last update that everything was on track and the targets were clearly set out in that announcement of what the further updates before the end of Q4 would be. Now I know the EU funds are probably outside the control of the bod, if so, why include it in the targets to be met this quarter? By including it in the targets it implied that the bod were confident that the EU money was to be received before the end of Q4? Or they knew for a fact that the money would be received before the end of December?
Also the chairman announcement is now way overdue, again this was issued as a target to be met in Q4 in the RNS 1 November 2019? Therefore I see no reason this cannot be achieved. If they were confident on 1 November of being able to make the announcement then it should be made.
I would also think that even if certain conditions are not completed i.e. consultations etc, the bod by now know who the finance partner is, and more importantly what the terms are? These could be released now by adding “subject to” in the notification!! Could it not! This has been dragging on for 12 months now so come on JW spill the bloody beans for goodness sake. The deal for H & W was triggered by the IM construction contracts and the cost savings to be had, therefore I believe some numbers must be there and the finance also must be nearly there, if not, then the huge contract promised for H & W some 200m in construction in respect of the IM project will certainly put a hole in that business? ie H & W bought with the understanding it would be handed the IM construction contract pretty damn quick to kick start the work for the many H & W workers currently employed by us!!!
So please JW, can you issue an update as soon as, at least to stop any speculation or rumours being circulated.
Mr T
Hi,folks again ..despite being a former "significant shareholder" and being in frequent contact with all 3 Directors I have never asked for nor been given any sensitive information prior to any announcement..My clear understanding though from the AGM is that delays to both E.U .funding and start of the Daera Consultation period are down to damn niggling bureaucratic nonsense and paper shuffling + possibly a delay as to start the process of the latter at this time would/could be seen as insensitive to others..no more no less.
IMHO though we need some clarity in the next 7 days as the year end targets are for sure now not attainable ..hold on tight !!
Thanks for response Dawski. This is much more high risk than when I entrred at the takeover. Yes it is frankly scary when you have much invested. Agonizing to be on a huge loss but scary to think you could lose all. Your answers to/ opinions on the Daera questions and opinions on timelines would be valuable if you have them. All the best.
Hi dawski37, I'd like to pick your brains about one thing:
DAERA still hasn't annouced public consultation dates. Assuming they do so in December, it would still require at least 21 or 42 days (depending on where you look, but 42 seems to have more backing) to complete, and if there are any concerns raised that DAERA deems valid, Infa would have to respond to those.
IM Capex will depend on the outcome of the consultation, because DAERA may uphold some of the concerns and order alterations to the project. Regardles of how likely or unlikely it is, you're not 100% sure what your Capex (and timelines) will be until that happens, so you don't know how much money you need to raise, which impact the timelines of equity funding.
And the FID, in order to be truly "final", needs to happen once all this is completed. So, it seems, Feb/March 2020 at the earliest.
Does that sound about right?
Hi folks .. Yes I am still very much invested here ..painfully like all of you but apart from the short term pessimism, until we have news flow and confirmation of e.u funding and FID for IM, the future is in the short term high risk for this otherwise beauty of an AIM tiddler.H&W increases the short term risk as we need some pre payments to now run the daily costs which are *****^**!! H&W puts a huge plus marker on the balance sheet...I have not sold and do not intend to cut losses but the next few days will be frustrating and .....quite frankly scary..hold on very tight !!