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ban4118,Lockedin has very effectively answered your first question. INFA will lose a large part of the project and I expect that this would act as a damper on the Sp, at least in the shorter term. I hope that Lockedin is correct in his assertion that our minority stake will still be valued at "multiples"of the current MCAP. He is certainly right about the revenues which would accrue from the management of the facility.
Relating to your second question and the opinion you express in the last sentence of your post :I don't speculate about Sp's because I think it is impossible to second guess AIM. Too many hidden influences and imponderables. But I am pretty certain that FID will be delivered and on time.As for the marine licence : that will also come but maybe with a huff and a puff. Why should it be denied. This is as clean a project as one could find and it is being managed by a brilliant,(and careful),CEO.
Gentlemen thanks both for your knowledgeable and incisive comments. Go well.
IMO the offtake, equity and dept, not to mention the construction EPC and Owner's Engineer would all be sorted before now if the marine licence had of been in place, as it should have been. Perhaps the chairman would also have still been in post.
However (also just my opinion) when the licence eventually gets the all clear, that is when I think all the contracts will suddenly be signed....and that (IMO) is when the SP will ignite.
I stress...all IMO only.
Si, I'd imagine INFA are well aware of who they want as well as who will work with who. Having multiple parties at the table helps ensure fair value is achieved for the asset but at this stage in the game I'd expect INFA to know exactly who they want and it's just a case of getting the complexities of the deals completed.
Sentata, with regards to dilution its worth noting funding will be at the project level and not the company level. Sure, INFA will lose a large percentage of the project but this is fully expected - they will maintain a minority stake which will still be worth many multiples of current MCAP as well as secure construction/management contracts etc which will bring additional revenues.
Setanta, many thanks for your balanced views as always. A couple of questions if I may. You note the deal could be dilutive for shareholders, but it’s clear from the RNS any agreement would be at project level - why would this be bad for shareholders? Secondly, (and I agree on this) you note the SP won’t rocket initially and it will be a gradual increase. Given the current SP is significantly below the costs incurred to date (factored into the deal) where do you see the SP initially landing if FID is delivered and the full licence granted? I think there will be a contingency if the licence isn’t granted, but it would heavily impact any deal and a sale may be more desirable at that point.
Si Derman and the point you make is a very valid one. Thanks for the clarification.
Okay, bad analogy. What I was getting at was the fact that of all the different parties that are part of the finalised package some may prefer to work alongside others, maybe for historic reasons, whilst another entity may have other favoured partners. It's striking that right mix that seems to be taking the time.
Cheers.
to 31 January 2019. And JW has been good enough to reiterate details of events which have taken place since that time. Almost everything is very positive and one sees the project developing smoothly and effectively. But there are one or two items which may account fot the fact that it has not exactly enlivened investor or produced many new subscribers.
The marine licence is still outstanding and though I am sure it will be granted investors are always cautious when there are important elements outstanding.
The second is lack of knowledge of the best deal that can be obtained from the chosen equity partner. The effect of the deal may be very dilutive for shareholders. That is why JW was reluctant to accept the deal which was offered at the end of 2018.Investors who see the Sp going ballistic upon announcement of the deal are likelyl to be a little disappointed. One of the reasons I would be happy to see a bid which might stimulate a better result!
One last point. Si Derman, I don't see any kind of "standoff" relating to the offtake providers. The RNS appears to indicate that the number of potential offtake providers has been reduced to three and that this decision has been, at least partly, driven by "counterpart requirements" of the three who have been set aside.
I have read the RNS & I see no negatives all seems to be progressing well & I would expect a further RNS before the May meeting.I would have thought that there would have been a more positive SP reaction.Looking forward to the next couple of weeks.
So basically, we are stuck in a Mexican standoff that is " driven by counterparty requirements".
Once agreement can be reached that suits all parties then it all should fall into place.
Meanwhile.... we wait.
“The Company is pleased to announce that, having completed technical DD, it is now in advanced discussions with the shortlisted two potential equity partners with a view to agreeing terms of investment. For the avoidance of doubt, any equity investment forthcoming will be at the Project level and not at the Company level. Post investment, the Company will retain a minority stake in the Project and will be involved in the construction and on-going operations of the facility post construction. It is the Company's intention to negotiate a management contract for the construction of the facility potentially providing an income stream in late 2019. The Company undertook discussions with potential debt providers during Q3/Q4 2018. The Company is pleased to announce that it has now received indicative terms from two banks. Additionally, the potential equity partners have also discussed providing a portion or all of the debt requirements of the Project. Subject to terms that are satisfactory, bringing the combined equity and debt requirements under one roof would reduce the time taken to reach Final Investment Decision (FID). The Company believes that is now in a strong position to negotiate the most optimum financing structure between the potential equity partners and debt providers. Offtake discussions During 2018, The Company had interest from six parties seeking storage capacity of the Project. Since then, the Company has had numerous discussions with all six and has now narrowed the field down to three potential offtake partners. The decision to focus on three offtake partners is predicated upon the synergies that the Company believes it has between itself and the potential offtake partners. These synergies include, inter alia, the length of the offtake agreement and the capacity charge that each potential offtake partner would be willing to pay during the life of the offtake agreement. The Company's decision to focus on the three potential offtake partners has also been driven by counterparty requirements of the potential equity partners. The Company is pleased to report that it is now in an advanced stage of contract negotiations with all three potential offtake partners, with a view to agreeing definitive terms in conjunction with agreeing terms of investment with potential equity partners soon.”
Nothing new. Still waiting on marine licence. As I see it, nothing can happen untill granted. Might be wrong...will be happy if I am wrong.. Just saying that is how I read the situation at present.
I'm sure they will :-)
https://www.investegate.co.uk/infrastrata-plc--infa-/rns/half-year-report/201904170700034126W/
Do you guy’s think, board will release RNS before the shareholders meeting. I think he wants to push the share, wants to see happy shareholders on the 8th off May.
It's a bulletin board Setanta not the bible :-) BBs are not the place to base any investment decisions on I'm afraid. I'd have to seriously consider my position if the sp ever rose above the 3p mark, which I think is achievable in the short term. I think many private investors too have rather sizeable shareholdings in this company so much interest there. Just a matter of time
Avyererdowt. Just saw your post in response to mine. What I said to Dawski and Snowman applies to your comments. But it is certainly good to see someone with such a high level of confidence in INFA.I'd love 6-7p. Go well.
Dawski if your thinking is correct,(and I certainly hope it is),we would still be very subject to the vagaries of AIM. So perhaps you may feel that a consolidation and a move to a higher echelon of the Stock Exchange would be appropriate. I cannot imagine a blue chip company wanting any association with AIM.
And Snowman, of course you're right to question my valuation. There is nothing scientific about it. But I imagine there is a great deal of new blood out there who would be delighted to invest in a three bagger. And we do need new blood. Just look at the lack of contribution on this BB ! Both, go well.
Great Idea,Setanta Dear Friend but JW has a long term vision here ...and beyond for this gem of a company ---there is huge pent up interest with a few investors now becoming rather impatient after waiting for 4 months or so for some real action ..2.5p would be a minimum !! If you believe in the Long Term Future of Infa under JW's leadership and direction hold on tight..just a little longer>
Setanta, with respect....IMO these shares are worth many many times that figure! I'm sure most SH would be mortified by that abysmal valuation. I certainly would be most unhappy with that.
I've had this thought before and now it recurs. Why wouldn't the equity provider make a bid for the company. If the provider is a blue chip energy company they will want to have full control over every aspect of the construction and commercialisation of the project. About £35M would do the business.That would make our shares worth about 2.5p each. I think the majority of holders would settle for that !?
althej. Maybe that's my answer to your question !
Avyerdowt, the state of interest in INFA is currently at a very low level among investors. Just look at the paucity of posts here. Also the MM's would drop the SP like a shot if they thought it would stimulate trade. They earn the same kind of recompense for buys or sells.
Hi All - Clearly we will be having an update 3 wks this Wednesday so I am expecting an RNS in that time frame & I for one will be going to the event on the 8th.Rome was not built in a day nor will the salt caverns.It is a Strong Buy at current prices provided you are prepared to take the risk.
#REMINDER: We will be hosting two shareholder update evenings in London (8th May) and Leeds (14th May). Email Infrastrata@yellowjerseypr.com to register attendance at either/both events. #INFA
Only 50 possible RNS days left until end of the H2, I'm hearing. :)
Thanks Dawski - that would be good for starters eh? 7p and I can pay my mortgage off and retire early!!
With Arlene and a Good Breeze behind us,say .05p ..if not ****** !!
Hi guys. I'm new to INFA but interested on thoughts of what you believe the SP will get to early doors. i.e. 3p - 5p - more?
Still very much here,Buddy --Yes foolish maybe as currently down a packet having not sold at .02 ish when we were then still awaiting news...but ,as you rightly say,nothing really negative has appeared and the project will succeed not because we have the Good Lord with us but because the project is deemed necessary by the Powers That Be ....
and the local Community whether in favour or not stand to benefit handsomely.It is up to the BOD to convince the locals and the Regulators that the environment and ecology will not be affected.When news finally comes the magnitude and reputation of the partners will be a bit of a shock to all including ,dare I say,the market ..unless they have been tipped off beforehand by Insiders as before !!