The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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George, no, your statement is incorrect. The Cargo element rose by 12% and not 300% in the third quarter. I am starting to think that you are a 15 year old kid larking about in your bedroom.
@Anditsgone, Thank you. TBF there are lots of people suffering out there and my losses are only about 2.5k over the last week as I sold at 1.09p and then bought back at 1.03. I could have held them but decided to sell half my SH now as i think it might drop beginning of next week. If it doesn't then all well and good my other IAG holding will make up for it but in truth I don't stress about it as it's not a good idea to invest if you can't afford to loose it as the SM is the ultimate gamble! i just hope that many don't invest thinking the SP will rise overnight, it wont but long term i'm very confident it will.
best of luck to all.
George the fool: I see that he is still going on about cargo. In the 3rd quarter, the segment only rose by 12.3%. In 2019 it was 4 % of the turnover and this year it was 42%, it goes to show how few passengers they are flying. IAG can not survive on Cargo.
Tp69 I certainly agree with you IAG is a medium term hold to see any good significant gains. I actually agree with most of the stuff you write, differing only in that I think a vaccine will open up routes more quickly.
Sunsufer sorry to hear you sold at a loss. I really do think a good gap up will occur end of november on vaccine news , hopefully you've not sold at the bottom. And If Matt Hanc*ck can open and close corridors at an hours notice, i think and hope travel protcool will actually be decided upon fairly rapidly, say when a good % of vulnerable population has been vaccinated.
My hope is by spring/summer that can be achieved, it certianly seems to be a reasonable expection going from what fauci,who and whitty/vallance are saying. And at that point restrictions on travel should be very light.
TP69
With you on those points...I wish things were different but they are what they are. The only question short term is how much will the SP rise when a vaccine is announced!
@Anditsgone
No, I'm not being down on the vaccine.
It is what everyone is aiming and hoping for.
I certainly don't deny that people everywhere want to travel and will, I'd be a loony to hold IAG shares if I thought any differently.
So, I'm not down on the vaccine, only it's initial impact on the profitability of IAG.
It may be a short term boon to the SP, should make travel easier and hopefully less restricted but I don't see swathes of BA longhaul aircraft full to the gunnels shortly after.
That's why IAG are a long hold for me.
GLA
Full disclosure I have a large SH in IAG that is tens of thousands plus. I'm also a believer in IAG for many of the reasons already disclosed by others. I sold half my holding yesterday (at a loss) as I think the SP will go down for this reason. Bums on seats are what matter, we have achieved peak cargo and without travel corridors to the eastern board first (that made a billion profit on its own in 2019) losses will continue.
Of note in the figures was no discounting another round of raising cash. For sure, Vaccine news will increase the SP but not substantially enough to stop losses this year nor i believe next year simply bc it takes time to vaccinate a few billion people AND agree travel protocols. Sadly I think this share will continue downward. I hope it doesn't but can't see the covid situation changing anytime soon. Its been 8 months already with no end in sight....I hope i'm wrong...
Apologies, should say average age of death is 82
TP7 and WAM I think you might be being overly downbeat on the vaccine. Remember the age of covid 19 death is 82. Children and young adults are basically unaffected.
I mention this because you don't actually need to vaccinate all 70 million people to open up society more, what you need to do is vaccinate the vulnerable. This reduces your timescale.
Bushmaster I actually agree more with you now. I felt yesterday testing has limited use in bringing back normal, but I can see a scenario where a "covid passport" is required for all travel over the next couple years. Possibly even for all large events. So whilst I'd be suprised if we are still doing 500000 tests a day into 2022, there will be a significant continued demand for tests for a long time yet.
TradingPlaces69 - I mentioned this to AndItsGone yesterday about testing being positive to get things moving. The vaccine has downsides, whatever way you look at it, but in the end will play a big part for a lot of people. On the other hand, testing, lateral flow tests (LFTs) are going to be (hopefully) able to identify asymptomatic individuals.
I don't see the vaccine as the "magic bullet" as such, merely signs that we are at the beginning of the end of all of this unpleasantness so light at the end of the tunnel. In the short term it will be the rapid tests and removal of quarantine requirements that will get people booking flights which will gradually be replaced by vaccination certificates - I don't think longer term people will be able to travel to other countries unless they've had the vaccine - similar to other health travel requirements like malaria inoculations or something like that.
Sadly I think WAM is right re - the vaccine.
I read loads of posts here and all over other travel and leisure stock BBs stating how, in their opinion, it's THE game changer.
I don't think it's the holy grail everyone hopes/ believes it will be.
Let's take the UK alone. That's 70mil people who need to be vaccinated. Would everyone trust a new vaccine and take it up (so to speak).
Would the vaccine be recognised instantly Worldwide and then seen as an open ticket to freely travel. Obviously you'd need proof you had been vaccinated.
I have no doubt that news of a viable vaccine would lift the share price short to medium term,
But it's bums on the seats of IAGs family of airlines that actually matter.
Lastly, if the vaccine WAS seen as the holy grail to IAGs woes, it's CEO, I'm sure would have mentioned this in the results and RNS. He doesn't, he asks for rapid testing and entry tests to stop arrival quarentine. And for clearer government guidance.
I pray for a vaccine for all of us, but two months after one is announced or rolled out I don't see full BA A380s taking off until some time after.
GLA
I think we need to remember, people want to travel. That initself is going to create big demand with the vac/test. Hotels/resorts etc are going to give customers offers they can't refuse, for many lifetime trips they can't refuse. Winter is just starting in the UK/Northern Europe, by Jan people will lockdown (whatever that means) will be crying to get out to warmer climates. No doubt, the next several weeks will be a bit of train smash, but there is a lot of positive news on its way, its just taking a bit of time to ramp it all up due to manufacturing, picticular with approvals over the new tests etc.
Saying a vaccines wont change anything at all in the short/medium term, do you not think travel will rise at all on the vaccine news WAM?
@TP69, Thanks for correcting, I mean the risk the few of guys were talking about;
- I don't think any second RI
- I don't this will nationalize
- I don't think this is going into 50p
Other than those normal market/economic risks for any company and any investment has risk know?
@WASU
I admire your ever positive approach but to say -
'IAG doesn't have any risk now.'
Is, in my opinion, balderdash and I'm ever the optimist.
Every company on the face of the planet even before C-19 faces risk.
I hold IAG shares but there is no way the company is fully out of the woods yet.
By its very nature, any company that holds an RI is in some form of trouble and needs to raise capital. You only have to look over at Rolls.
I'm not deramping the stock (I own a lot of it) but you cannot make statements like that.
Or rather, you can make statements like that, but sadly it doesn't hold up to the most basic scrutiny.
For the record, I'm attacking that part of your POST and not the poster.
Nothin to worry about lockdowns as that will come and go.
Also for the vaccine, it will come soon 100% so just the wait still the time, but no more special bad news for the IAG now, those guys were saying that today at 8am is a bloodbath for the existing shareholders, but nothing happened and IAG is the best airline now to perform and start from today...
Yet again wrong prediction 80p from our friend Teddy. :-) I don't want to mention other nonsense guys as they are still crying here.
SP is starting a new upward journey today and IAG doesn't have any risk now.
All the best who have already purchased at these low prices, and wish others well.
Cheers.