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@Livepari: If you are going to invest in any share you must have correct intelligent data. The IAG share price in January hit 642p, I know because I was a holder. All the data you are viewing is based on the the RI dilution. In fact I can remember this share hitting just short of 800p a few years ago. Recalculate your figures on 642p and you will see how far we are away from reality.
Dont forget we also brought another airline for half price. Have got rid of old planes, stream lined the business and reduced costs.
We will recover much better than most beleive
Radhartgeorgr
Sorry on second reading of your post, noticed where are making the error. You are calculating 60% of the already diluted price instead of 60% of pre Covid undiluted price.
Radhartrtgeorge
60% dilution seems correct. It was about 445 in Jan 2020.
375 you are right exactly a year back. So roughly half way there. In my view 300 could be soon but 400 may take a year or more time for air travel to recover to 2019 levels. DYOR.
@notaflipper I agree with all your figures in terms of no. of shares issued in Jan '20, and following the rights issue in Oct'20. We are also (roughly) in agreement on the share price this time last year (£3.75-£4.00).
It would appear the rights issue increased the no. of shares in circulation by just under 60% (2.97bn / 4.97bn) which would suggest that the old share price should be reduced by the same amount to reflect the dilution. 60% of £4.00 results in a price of £2.40.
Therefore, today's price of £1.85 indicates we are about 77% of the way back to the pre-covid share price?
Do people agree? Or am I goign about this the wrong way?
Radhart - yeah, looks like Google accounts for this (and does your job for you!). 24/02 was 522, SP was sitting around 650 mid Jan
redhat, it really depends on what value you place on the company. Add the money raised on to the company value you decide on from your historical record, then add the number of shares created to the number of shares originally, then divied the new sp between the new numbers of shares. That is the only answer I can come up with for your question.
@radhatgeorge The Total Voting rights for the Company was 1,992,032,634 issued shares in circulation on the 28th Feb 2020. The shares in circulation confirmed on the 29th Jan 2021 RNS confirmed 4,971,476,010. So in the last year there has been 2,979,443,376 New Shares (representing 100% of the total number of New Shares issued) following 2 October 2020 statement. Share price on the 24th Feb was 375p I believe.
Most PIs don't look at the shares in issue to give them a weighted average when looking at historical share prices. So with a doubling of the shares in issue the reality is that most of the recovery in the SP has already taken place. Perhaps 10p more max but difficult to see 200p being broken until all quarantine measures rolled out in EU and US. With the grim 500k US death milestones reached this week in the US it has to be expected that US travel will not recover till Q2 '22. So with the pension shortfall to clear up you are looking at a long haul back to past 'unweighted' sp levels.
The share price was around £6.5 in Jan 2020 I think, google adjusted it all down recently (to account for the shares added?) it was at £3 something in Aug 2020 but now shows as £1.40. Can anyone confirm?
Tried reformatting with spaces - still no luck. I give up.
@big-blue Thanks for the input. I am only after one piece of information though. What SP today (with today's number of shares) is equivalent to the SP of £4.00 with the number of shares in circulation prior to the rights issue?
The consensus median for 4Q 2020 is -€1,252m
This is the number to look out for in the results. Lower, bad, higher good. -1,659 is the lower range.
A Current Market Cap 9,370,000,000 IAG Website
B Shares in Circulation 4,971,476,010 IAG Website
C Share Price £1.88 A/B
D No of new shares issued 2,979,443,376 IAG Website
E Shares in circ'n pre-rights issue 1,992,032,634 B-D
F Pre-Covid Share Price £4.00 Input what you wish
G Pre-Covid Market Cap 7,968,130,536 E x F
H Cash raised from Rights Issue £2,500,000,000 IAG Website
I Pre-Covid SP with todays share circ'n £2.11 (G + H) / B
As suspected the formatting was lost but hopefully you can see the 4 columns - letter, description, value and source of info.
Folks,
It would appear I am not the only one that is looking to calculate the appropriate recovery reference point to compare today's SP with. Personally I consider 400p to be the pre-covid benchmark but following the additional shares issued at the rights issue, the 400p must be reduced to reflect both (1) the additional shares in circulation and (2) the additional cash raised.
I have struggled with this calculation but think I am either there or at least getting closer. I am looking for others to point out if my calculations are correct or not. I'm hoping the formatting doesn't mess up as I post but here goes...
Source
A Current Market Cap 9,370,000,000 IAG Website
B Shares in Circulation 4,971,476,010 IAG Website
C Share Price £1.88 A/B
D No of new shares issued 2,979,443,376 IAG Website
E Shares in circulation pre-rights issue 1,992,032,634 B-D
F Pre-Covid Share Price £4.00 Input what you wish
G Pre-Covid Market Cap 7,968,130,536 E x F
H Cash raised from Rights Issue £2,500,000,000 IAG Website
I Pre-Covid SP with todays share circulation £2.11 (G + H) / B
So, I am right in thinking that with the current number of shares in circulation, a SP of £2.11 is equivalent to the 'old' price of £4.00?