Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Another 1.7m bought yesterday just showed up
Do not get these small sells drip feeding the market either ..
Well soundbuy-I'm staggered-I didn't expect you to say that !
Always expect the unexpected but in our case always expect the unexpected at least 6 months later than you expected the unexpected to be.......
TDT agree 100% - it is much more interesting that Vermelho gets developed than where the SP reaches this year. If Vermelho starts getting developed, it will add HUGE mcap at the point where it is financed/built/producing so that is the value we need to unlock. I am more excited about Vermelho getting developed for the long game than any immediate impact on the sp. However, it is also bound to attract institutional interest buyers so as soon as it is on track to being developed we should see new money buying Horizonte, which is not a bad outcome for existing shareholders....particularly those eyeing their 'slices' or 'early exits'.
I think its a golden horse or is that a dark goose!
Horizonte has already said they expect to make an announcement on Vermelho 1st. H 2021 (although that will probably get pushed on) so there's definitely something in the pipeline. Araguaia funding secured first then Vermelho ? second should see us spike to well above 8.35p. How much above will all depend on how many decide to lock in profit. Where it settles after the spike(s) is anybody's guess. I expect it to settle comfortably above 20p.
Doesn't really matter where it goes in the interim to be honest. I'm here for the long game.
TDT
Vermelho - golden goose or dark horse, reckon news flow here could well surprise
Orion too, reckon they're going to play a larger role in HZM's future
Yes - if Horizonte are going to develop it at least in the early stages from own cash (as the appointment of the engineering chappie suggests) then they need cash - I think by financing the coffers will be relatively empty - if the latest $25m is largely a placeholder for the Araguaia long lead items and initial ramp up. So I'm looking for clues in the financing that cash is raised for Vermelho and if not - clues to who is going to do what with Vermelho in Q3/Q4. If Horizonte raise (some) finance for it in the main deal, which is not unlikely IMO, then game on.
I don't see 'no progress' as a likely outcome in 2021 on Vermelho simply because the clock is ticking and it is too valuable asset to have sitting around. Even if the only progress is to raise finance to progress the next stage of DFS development, my expectation is that will happen this year. And make no mistake, Vermelho is the golden goose here :) GLA
As far as I understand it the financing is largely, but importantly no exclusively, for A. Agree Wasa, expect plenty of newsflow on V.
final thing I would keep a beady eye on in Q3 is what is happening with Vermelho after Araguaia financing is announced. If Horizonte are making concrete noises, or getting a shift on developing this project, then you know you will see value from the second (larger, more lucrative!) project in a timescale you care about. I think for whatever reason Vermelho development is tied into the financing deal for Araguaia (or shortly after it) - perhaps it needs cash and the company don't want to jeapordise the big deal doing a raise separately. But if it looks like we're developing Vermelho, by Q3, it's game on for Horizonte and that is bound to attract even more institutional interest than Araguaia. So much potential and the financing could (and should) hold the key.
keep an eye on the nickel narrative (which will get stronger) and the other eye on the fact there aren't many like us with 4m tonnes of it 'ready to mine' around. That goes one way, eventually, once we have unlocked the financing. All imho.
Will do Wasa.
Far more an investor than trader (short or mid term) by nature.
Understand real world economics may now dictate deal will have to be viewed a bit "sympathetically".
Only been on AIM shares for 2 years, but investing since 1984. So still learning bit by bit about "Dodge City"... :-)
All the best mate.
SJ absolutely fair. All I would say is - analyse the deal with a cool head and look at the timescales over which it will deliver. My gut feel is more dilution at lower than what we'd like. But I am increasingly of the opinion of Craig, and Bwana, and others, that that doesn't matter - but potentially only for people who are happy to wait till production. Even - absolute worst case in my book - 3bn shares. This has the potential to be a £1.5-2bn company which would value us at 50-70p even at that worst case end. Yes it will take years and perhaps you will find a better investment for making 7p into 50p or 70p. But don't necessarily be put off by the initial deal. Really reflect on it.
The raise this spring caught me off guard as it wasn't quite what the company had mooted and it wobbled my confidence a bit, especially as I had continued loading right up until the announcement. I go into the main financing deal with a completely different mindset, eye very much on the long game, having taken enough off the table that I don't need the 20m shares. I don't really see an eventual exit less than 50p but of course, even 25p would more than do.
But if you do see better opportunities in Q3 fair play to you and they do exist, clearly, some stocks gain more multiples or companies get sold and others already pay dividend, perhaps that's years and years away for Horizonte. Don't discount a sale of Horizonte also - I still think at least 50/50 we get sold at around first production if not earlier.
Wasa.
I do agree that many are on AIM are dispassionate & with a shortish term target no doubt. Even if not a day trader, they see a share shelf life of say 6 months max. If good at picking, they well & then sell. Take a nice profit. No attachments, and move to a new thing.
To be honest AIM seems built that way generally in my experience to date?
A few shares that buck this.... But even they often finally suffer. GGP went from 1.4p in mid 2019, lumbered for 5 months while some of us saw prospects that seemed tangible so bought...exploded Jan 2020 to Dec 2020. Hitting 38p.... then fell off a cliff & in 3 months halved.
Of course with hindsight everyone would have sold last Xmas and rebought at 18p a week back... but hindsight isnt given to many of us sadly ..
Or perhaps the truely, as you intimate, savvy types sold at Xmas n just accept that if it does go to 70p sometime in the next 12-18 mnths.... well, so be it. They made plenty already (putting it mildly!). On to the next thing....
So yeah. With the fashion parade that is AIM shares it's a brave man that invests long term no doubt. Most haven't the patience nor the nerve for it.
Who is right who is wrong.... who judges their exit will be the real guru. Be that in a week, 6 months or a few years...
Anyhow to me help on making that "call" here is seemingly dependent on the quality of the deal JM comes up with. Mid April now. He has my ear till Q3.... sitting on hands till then, then I will decide the future of my 11.34 Mill tickets. I think that's only fair?
I think there are plenty (DJ one of them) who are happy with a 2x or 3x from low to current price and happy to pursue gains elsewhere (with at least part of their portfolio). If you are dispassionate about it it is easy you don't have to buy back. You can move to the next stock which you think will double. I'm not convinced all sellers want, or will come back, or if they do, they will want to profit from the next 50% rerate before selling again.
I think we had a debate back in the day about which strategies produce better overall returns. Now I have accounted for my ISA transactions (in my system I book the sell as a profit and re-enter the buy at the buy price) I am selling £7k bought stock and buying around £20k with it. This is on a year+ timeframe since some of these buys were first logged. There is simply no way, with my skills and ability to read the market, that I could outperform trebling my money in a year by moving it around - yes - if you knew what AVCT and ARB and other shares were going to do but that's hindsight trading. Granted, Horizonte may sit flat for a year, but I know with Horizonte there is another trebling around the corner at some point - it could be 2021, 2022, or 2023, but we WILL be worth 25p at some point (and hopefully then some). So it is pretty simple in my mind - why sell? I don't think I can outperform my buy and hold strategy with my skills, but accept others may do better and good luck to them!
An article caught my eye which again confirms (to me) the need to be invested in non cash assets. Biden under pressure to write off student loans. Apparently the US has $1.4tn in student loans. That is money somebody invented, leant to students who studied as debt, which the state may now decide to make the debt disappear. There is surely only so many times you can pull this kind of trillion dollar stunt before the the proverbial happens involving fans and the brown stuff and currencies become treated with some of the contempt they deserve. The positive for me is - lets get that money for Horizonte borrowed (in $) as soon as possible. Before$ worth a lot less than it might be worth today and we are paying it back from sales of nickel which are priced a lot higher in $ than it is today. GLA
Interesting that one or more buyers in substantial (1Mill odd) lumps V smaller, but consistent selling around 8.1 to 8.4....
So, seems a battle between confidence longer term. As against likely profit takers looking at the other interesting options out there. Of which clearly there are a few right now.
The later presumably feel they have "time" pre any JM finance update to hoover up 20% trading GGP (as yesterday), or another 20% buying and selling RMM (as today)...
I guess that's a fine idea if you have the gift of timing, and also rolling the dice that HZM doesnt announce a strong and well structured deal whilst one is playing away....
Interesting times...