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Header, let’s face it you’re not invested here, no one would be that stupid to berate their own investment and risking their own Money ….. unless of course you’re related to Gerald Ratner 😂😂 move on you are just a bitter loser , accept your failure and own your decision!
Due diligence is key.
With any project in any industry sector there will be risks. What is important is consideration to as a many factors as possible.
There is every reason to be bullish here. Old I’m eaters can average down and new investors have an excellent opportunity.
Disgruntled shareholders are par for the course.
Quite happy to have a position here, and will add when I can.
GLA
I'm pickedpeck and i'm not a bickerer, i just go off on tangents in a rage when I am proven wrong! Show me any laterite project that has received financing that is also 1% grade, especially an highly capital intensive acid leaching one! You are wrong and encouraging people to believe otherwise makes you either naive or as bad as J.M. Even a cheaper electric arc ferronickel, or pig iron project on it likely will cost $725M plus a 2nd furnace & it will produce 70% less nickel than aguaia.
Vermehlo was a good story when Nickel price was high and is now a liability. Allocating 16M$of borrowed cash for an asset fesability that's not getting developed and will be waay out of date by the time it does, when the company is short at least 70M$ on something that will make money is utter stupidity.Trying to put a posotive spin on that is, well it's just plain, manipulative ramping. I can see why the toys have gone out the pram.
Pickepeck 14.17…great post.. brilliant comments. Plan and simply put the 1st mine is so close the major players would be bonkers not to fund.. this is going to fly.. your remarks today have been excellent!
Poor Headder. Very positive on this until 30 October when he sold out missing the recent rise. Must be p!ss@d off! Still plenty to be made here, only just started the rerate. Come back aboard and enjoy the ride.
vale did the original dfs. are you saying they got it wrong and are ******s because they disagree with you?
maybe la mancha and orion having done due diligence are ******s for putting up the money for the feasibility study, as they plainly disagree with you too. i would imagine having provided the money for that specific purpose that's what they actually wanted done with it, and maybe have a contract to that effect.
maybe even glencore are ******s for just having 18% of the shares in the company, having sold the xstrata assets to hzm. perhaps they should not have invested yet and waited for the mine to be built. i mean why bother at all if they have the off take.
you are the one with vast holes in your arguments and calling anyone a ****** that disagrees with you. i'm not bickering. i am flat out saying you are wrong, and are presenting half truths and misdirection to support your flawed argument. in your first post about vermelho you neglected to mention it's not a straight nickel mine and also will produce cobalt. you are also forgetting that it's production cost is also lowest quartile because of cheap hydropower. the cobalt and low production cost make the lower ni grades more than viable vs indonesia with no cobalt and coal powered electricity.
no one is asking you to put your hand in your pocket to fund it. mining capital companies will do due diligence and decide if its viable, oh wait, they have already done that for the pfs and funded the fs.
Sunday Mail page 83
Risers & Fallers :
HZM leading the Leader Board as The Biggest Riser with the following statement:
Peel Hunt Brokers Slap BUY Rating On Firm 🤫
To do with factoring in vermelho, why was this thread started with the implication that it adds to the value, it doesn't and has proved to be & continues to be quite the opposite.
I can see how new shareholders could be upset of their 100k production narrative to entice buying having massive holes in it and resort to bickering as the facts run away from them. The truth is, there should be no value in for it, as you said over the economics of it being a globally inferior grade to current production, continuing to waste money on a fesability study shows that if anything it removes value, about 16m$ worth against dilution according to the latest RNS. If you disagree, you are a r',tard. FYI I do have shares but only a 1/3 position as I expect to take the rest on a placing. That is unless the shareholders can be persuaded to j.v line 2 for money to complete line 1.
Great posts as always PP.
Unfortunately Header has put himself in an awkward position having sold out at a loss he has of course made his Failure Certain, he now feels compelled to justify his Failure by telling us why he sold up using his own Flawed Research / Reasoning.
He has of course Doubted Himself, in reality, doubt is the surest, as well as the shortest, path to failure.
Headder, it’s all about numbers. The mine has a large resource, longevity, potential expansion, low cost.
It is 100% owned.
Even if the grades were not top notch, the viability is there as a tier 1 mine.
From an investment perspective, is there future value from current position. The answer to that question is a resounding yes.
LTH’s I have sympathy for, they now have a wait to realise their investment. But, from current position of market cap, the growth and return opportunity is very good, and that is what is important.
It is good to have balance so your post is welcomed but I look at this project from an investment perspective and are no reason to be negative from current position.
Where will the market cap and SP be once fully functional.?
That’s what it’s all about.
1.92% currently being mined at Araguaia.
It's really easy Headder. No one is factoring in Vermelho at all at the moment. If it has a business case then it might get finance, if not it won't. On the surface of it there is a return because of the low production cost with ready infrastructure, low cost clean hydro power, shallow pit mining and reasonable effective grade. That's what Vale's DFS said anyway.
Indonesia doesn't have infinite supply of 1.7% either, they are importing from the Philippines now at much lower grades.
Well, pickedpeck, either being called a ramper of a negative poster, I am merely pointing out that extrapolating from the company website is a fools errand. Even if they could high grade the deposit, that's what everybody does at first, so you have maybe 1.2% deposit to develope against an Indonesian 1.7. the only rational conclusion here is that you have to wait for resource depletion, like aguaia, which is being developed as it's in line with global grades. Which 10 years ago were what, 2%?
The 46kt was Vale's assessment when they spent $300m on developing Vermelho, scrapping it in favour of Goro as it would have led to over capacity. HZM bought it for peanuts at the bottom of the cycle, even just as a straight asset sale it should be on the books at a higher value.
I'd sooner read the final DFS report rather than your negatively speculative posts to be fair, but perhaps the additional resource value is because it is a Nickel Cobalt project rather than just Nickel, with the Co production being factored in to the return as a Ni equivalent raising the effective grade and payback.
Why all the negative narrative Headder. Every post seems to be twisting facts to fit a negative agenda. I can't imagine why, the price is already under the asset value floor. What are you hoping for?
Waste of time, vermehlo in my opinion. Nickel is not rare so if you want to develope a resource, grade is everything;
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/vermelho-nickel-cobalt-project/
Now, why would you develop a 1% resource when the big money is developing 1.5-1.7%?
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/HPAL-development-project-in-Indonesia_tbl1_356950657
Referencing the company website on develppement costs, of 500M£ for 25Kt, against industry standard of 2.3Bn$ current for a 50ktpa setup is just lunacy, it's quite clearly a lie to attract investment. I would also add, that vermehlo is probably a decade away at least from production and the bfs is a wate of time!
So answer me this; Why is vermelho in your calculations? In a wider market context,now, should all the phillipines 1% ore be in peoples global output forecasts also, along with all indonesian 1% that isn't being mined???
Just to quote a source for the 100kt plus...
BMO Conference presentation Feb 2023, slide 4.
https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20230301-bmo-conference-presentation.pdf
Totak PFS / FS of three projects 107kt p.a.
Vermelho will likely be resized down from 46kt to the 29kt for initial development to control capex.
Araguaia North does not have a current FS in development but was previously sized at 32kt p.a. By Glencore.
Araguaia South 29kt for lines 1 and 2. There is potential to add more lines to extend this further.
By the way, Glen haven't managed over 100kt for a while. 2023 YTD (Q3) 68kt FY projection ~85kt , 2022 81.6kt.
Glencore is one of the worlds leading Nickel producers at 102kt p.a. 100kt p.a. puts us right up there globally on one of the most important metals for clean energy technology. The mine is almost built. £55m market cap beggars belief.
Just to say the £1.7m wasn’t made up, it’s the total as stated in the 2022 annual accounts.
Pickedpeck - thanks for that. Huge capacity…. I think this is going to take off as the enhancements to production infrastructure and independent review should be the driver and assurance for additional funding thus allowing them to draw further on the senior debt facility and get Araguaia established and functioning. Good luck…I’m really bullish with this….
That’s a great reply.
Just look at the site, what is being constructed, and how close it is to completion. It is an enormous project, and yes most definitely the schedule of build and costings will vary.
The key factor in any project particularly a mining project is viability, and this is an enormous viable tier 1 mine that is in every way viable.
And another tier 1 mine in the making too.
There will always be challenges, always questions asked of any BoD, but it will be completed and it will be a globally significant mine. And, it it’s 100% owned.
Billy,
If you really want to dream about the long term future then the ultimate estimated potential of all the current assets is 105kt p.a. production, that still gives a 35 Yr mine life against best guess of reserves. The 60kt p.a. is the relatively short term (5 year ish) target of just A1, A2 and Vermelho first line. Araguaia North, Serra do Tapa, more Araguaia South lines and so on extend that a lot.
A major buys this and they could mine that 100kt plus, or more than Glencore or Anglo American current production, and probably top 2 or 3 in world production outside Indonesia.
That's without further exploration. The Araguaia license is more or less the size of Sussex and has more exploration potential to extend reserves.
Obviously we need to compete the first line at the first mine as a gateway to all that potential. But the Ni in the ground hasn't gone anywhere, and the potential is what attracted all the blue chip backers in the first place.
Obviously none of that will happen without a deal this month, but there is a big incentive to get one done.
Legin252 - I genuinely feel the same when I looked at this again. It’s a massive venture…they’re talking with the two mines a capacity of 60000 tonnes per annum. The maths is scary in terms of revenue @$18k per tonne.
Website reminder
Horizonte Minerals is a leading nickel company that is developing two, tier one projects in the Pará State, Brazil. The Araguaia ferronickel project and the Vermelho nickel-cobalt project are both high-grade, lower quartile, long mine life projects. This portfolio provides Horizonte with a scalable production profile of over 60,000 tonnes of annual nickel production, positioning the Company to be a significant global producer. As a critical component in both stainless steel and in electric vehicle battery technology, nickel is a key enabler of the clean energy transition. As a member of this sustainability driven supply chain, Horizonte is committed to the ethical, safe and responsible production of low carbon nickel products.
So £1.7m was just a made up number then?
I also am guessing the 'other' and share based bonuses go out of the window if the schedule isn't met. Share based payment will be the taxable value of anything granted and not necessarily cash value.
The 5m in options only has a value above the option price, so if the bulk granted last year were at 170p (? Anyone know the actual figure) then they are worth a CGT taxable 1p each IF the price gets to 171p, 30p each if it gets to 200p, and nothing at all with a share price of 170p and below.
That salary for a CEO is not that unreasonable. He is getting it for taking a £10m mkt cap junior explorer through bargain basement asset acquisitions, PEA, PFS, initial fund raises, DFS, complex low cost Export credit, bank debt, and equity raises, negotiating an extreme low cost power supply, a 100% off take contract, and getting a green field mine permitted and almost built in Brazil. Anyone here done that? Not exactly washing cars or walking dogs is it. What do you think he should be paid?
You're also a moron if you think for a moment that JM was at liberty to 'tip off' anyone outside of an RNS. Firstly it would be illegal, see what happened to Elon last year, secondly the board would have been controlling the message not JM, third the Nomad forced their hand on announcement before it was quantified and likely also prevented suspension, fourth the cornerstones would have had every expectation of being informed and controlling the news first. What do you expect? JM to phone and tip off every PI personally? Or just you?
Yes the schedule and mine build is compromised, the market herd baling out dumped the price and set the new value. Could it have been done better? Probably, but anyone that has run a very large and extremely complex project like this knows sh*t happens. You earn your crust by how you deal with the sh*t. Bringing in a new ops director, having an independent engineering assessment, walking the key stakeholders through the issue and forming a detailed action plan is what you would do. Jury is still out on whether that is enough to give them many choices on completion of the build.
When you read through the detail, it is very clear that this project is not only enormous, but it is being constructed professionally and will be cost efficient when in operation.
This is a tier 1 mining facility, which is 100% owned.
An additional tier 1 mine is currently in the feasibility stage.
I would recommend that anyone on the sidelines that is not invested should read this report as it gives a detailed company position.
Due diligence is key to any investment decision.
I am confident from my own due diligence that mid to long term will see significant increase in market cap, and a cost efficient operation that is profitable and sustainable with future tier 1 mine in development.
Not financial advice.
GLA
Https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/press-releases/2023/construction-update-for-the-araguaia-nickel-project-3/
Funding and senior lenders visit to operations;
As of 30 September 2023, a total of US$429 million has been spent on construction at Araguaia.
As of 30 September 2023, US$215 million has been drawn down from the senior secured project finance debt facility of US$346 million (the “Senior Debt Facility”). As of 30 September 2023, the Company had total liquidity sources of US$253 million comprised of US$131 million undrawn on the Senior Debt Facility and a Group cash position of US$122 million. Of the Group cash position, US$93m relates to the project to cover current construction activity and working capital which includes the full draw down on the Cost Overrun Facility of US$25m as well as US$5m cost over run equity. The cash balance is committed to near term capital expenditures. US$16m of the Group cash position is segregated for the development of Vermelho with the balance of US$13m spread amongst other entities for the ongoing running of the Group.
The remainder of the undrawn Senior Debt Facility of US$131 million is intended to be used to fund current project capital costs, and in order to draw down on the Senior Debt Facility, all conditions precedents must be satisfied including a cost to complete analysis. With the estimated increase in overall Project capital, the Company is working closely with its senior lenders and its cornerstone shareholders on a financing solution to solve the funding gap. The Company’s objective is to put in place a financing solution which will satisfy the cost to complete requirements and thereby allow the Company to continue to access its Senior Debt Facility.
The senior lenders and the independent technical engineers were on-site on 4 October 2023 undertaking a review of construction progress to date.
I was given grief by a fellow poster about ramping. I have never ramped and stand by my genuine beliefs that this company is going to make its shareholders very wealthy….the assets are huge and the remaining finance is small stuff when considering the genuine asset value of probably $6bn? Looking forward to 50p in a few weeks as a starter…