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Pecten11,
Sorry, missed your reply.
"Perhaps the key dataset presently missing, is the %of asymptomatic cases in the population - something which could manifestly change the current predictive models"
Yes. It's a key dataset, but not simply related to 'asymptomatic' cases. How about people who had symptoms and the 'rottenest case of flu they'd ever had in their lives' but aren't of the mindset to go to A&E or call their doctor whenever they feel a bit under the weather? (I put myself into that mindset, and don't call the doctor because due to various reasons, most don't do house-calls any more.)
It's why I'm very sceptical about the data one sees on the TV, and why I've stopped watching such stuff so frequently. I'm not in a panic about CV-19, but our 'leaders' obviously are. Because the micey-nicey 'systems' are breaking down.
acrossthesea,
"finally some one with insight into the the true nature of what is going on with this virus. This really is story of The Emperor's New Clothes."
To whom are you referring? Send link, please.
finally some one with insight into the the true nature of what is going on with this virus. This really is story of The Emperor's New Clothes.
IAmNotAnAnalyst,
"Colds being transmitted because of people being close together in winter is not the main reason that happens. Think about your life and how much time you spend in enclosed spaces with people even in summer, it's not that different. "
A sweeping statement, which all depends on peoples' 'lifestyles', where they live, and so on. Sure, if one's office-bound for work, not much difference between the seasons. But not everyone is tied to a desk.
Heck! I'm 'retired' and live in the centre of a town. But right now in early spring, I'd be reckoning on spending more of my time 'outdoors' than cooped-up in my flat, as is the current situation. Or on the road in my car, which is 'home-from-home' for me, and maybe where I'm the most 'zen relaxed'.
But that's a liberty which has been taken away from me by a 'government' in panic-mode, sticking band-aids onto a 'system' which has failed, and thereby creating even greater problems down the line.
I don't believe people's behaviour is so drastically different in terms of numbers of social contacts at Christmas compared to any other time. After all Covid was spreading quite a lot in February and March.
Colds being transmitted because of people being close together in winter is not the main reason that happens. Think about your life and how much time you spend in enclosed spaces with people even in summer, it's not that different. The reason is more likely the cold and dry air supports viruses travelling further and stick around longer as well as people's immune systems not working as well because of a shortage of vitamin D.
IAmNotAnAnalyst,
Sorry, forgot this part of your post.
"Your earthquake analogue is only applicable if Covid drastically changed in December."
I disagree.
It's HUMAN BEHAVIOUR (carriers of the virus) which changes around December! Holidays. People going hither-and-thither around the global village to 'be with family', and so on. And in places like Europe, suddenly cramming themselves together in warm places, in close proximity, and so on. Airports crammed. Etc...
The virus doesn't have to change at all. It's just being given an ideal 'incubator'.
Just like the Common Cold. People generally associate that with wintertime, and the weather. Poppy****. It's simply because in wintertime, people tend to stay closer together in warm places.
A vaccine for CV-19? Still haven't found one for the 'Common Cold' yet. Not even quite sure what it is.
ADUK thanks for the response, apart from referring to the individual I observed licking his fingers as my acquaintance- only true in the most literal sense, most definitely not in any meaningful way.
At the moment the actual method of transmission, the incubation period of the virus and the viral load needed for differing degrees of infection is still to be confirmed, so yes, it is possible that the SARS-CoV-2 virus gas been in circulation for longer, however, the commonality of the cases/mortality curves worlwide would suggest otherwise.
Perhaps the key dataset presently missing, is the %of asymptomatic cases in the population - something which could manifestly change the current predictive models
IAmNotAnAnalyst,
" how can something as contagous as Covid only thinly spread itself all around the world, and not proliferate as it is doing now? Has it changed how infectious it is? If it is spread thinly then it would be much more difficult for it to spread around the globe."
I am absolutely NO expert in this, so please treat my reply as pure opinion.
What we are talking about here is NOT the 'spread of the virus'. Instead, it's the STATISTICAL MAPPING of its spread. And that only really started once the thing had been identified after the Wuhan 'outbreak', and then, quite possibly, only retroactively.
And even now, 'testing' is generally only being carried out on people admitted to hospitals in an unwell condition, or as a precaution, those in contact with such patients.
It is obvious that the virus has spread worldwide already, with the possible exclusion of Antarctica. But in some ways, and given the current lack of 'testing' means, it's downright impossible to know what percentage of people worldwide have contracted it, maybe fallen mildly ill but got over it at home, not been ill at all, how many have died at home due to complications arising, and so on.
All we see on the media are 'reported cases'.
Sorry 'bout staying 'on-topic', but the way this 'crisis' is helping to crater the economy has a direct effect on the stockmarket and my HUR shares...
Gawd....more attention seeking ADUK, no cases in France at the time, but you make this leap that you have had CV. You probably had a bad case of the flu, don't which strain, don't know. As for the chest/breathing problem....you're old, you smoke, so what do expect, the lungs of a Sherpa from Nepal ....
Oh, and 'Pecten11' (and anyone else interested, maybe 'Robone') when I wrote "I too, believe I've already 'had" this thing, in late December", I'm not kidding, and have good circumstantial reasons for thinking so.
Around 13th December (I think it was then), I was at a private poker game amongst 'friends': including a young (late-30's) Chinese man, who was coughing and feeling a bit unwell. A relatively small room, ten people in close proximity, having 'fun' trying to take each others' money off them. People remarked on the fact that this guy wasn't looking too good, but he wanted to stay.
Ten days earlier, his parents had arrived from China to stay with him, for both the Christmas holidays and also the Chinese New Year. And they were already coughing and feeling unwell. But they blamed it on the long-haul flight, and the jetlag, and so on.
The 'Xmas holidays' were no fun for me: for a couple of days I thought I might die. But didn't care. But rarely have I ever been so unwell.
This is how a disease can spread, insidiously. And the most important thing about this new one is the inability to test for whether someone who has already had it is in fact 'immune', or may in fact remain a 'carrier'.
I appreciate the response ADUK so let me set out my disagreements to your disagreements :D
CDV-19 could have been in wide, but thinly-spread circulation in Europe without the health services batting an eyelid - how can something as contagous as Covid only thinly spread itself all around the world, and not proliferate as it is doing now? Has it changed how infectious it is? If it is spread thinly then it would be much more difficult for it to spread around the globe.
Just 'seasonal flu' with a few 'at risk' patients (maybe already under care) not making it through. Here and there. Nothing statistically important - why would it not be statistically important before yet is incredibly so now? Again this suggests there has been an increase in transmissivity or in incidence of ill health requiring hospital treatment, proposing a mutation.
It took an 'epicentre' (in this instance Wuhan) for people to sit up and take notice - that's because widespread infections happened, purely down to how the virus acts. Are you saying that Wuhan was the mutation and that the previous 'round' of Covid was a weaker version, yet one from which people gained immunity?
Your earthquake analogue is only applicable if Covid drastically changed in December. Otherwise the virus could not moderate itself just to act like a small quake before then changing to be a 'big quake'...these are 2 different phenomena caused by 2 different viruses.
The other thing that would be apparent if your hypothesis is true is that there would be a significant number of people floating around with immunity. And they would be shown to have the antibody once these tests are more available. I haven't seen any evidence suggesting this is the case and that's why I think it's wishful thinking.
Pecten11,
"ADUK, that Oxford paper is potentially dangerous (though I fully support them writing it, it's just how it's been publicised rather than peer reviewed), because it would then imply that the incubation period for the virus is far longer than currently thought, which means that for social isolation to have any impact it will go on for far, far longer."
In what way is it 'potentially dangerous'? In that it suggests that 'lockdown' may have to go on longer? Yes, if so, I'd agree, because the longer 'lockdown' goes on, the greater the resultant societal and economic damage is liable to be.
However, I don't see how in any way it implies that the 'incubation period' is longer than at present believed. 'Spread' at an earlier period may be presumed to have been international travel for the holiday season. And it may also be safely assumed that international travel is (by and large) not undertaken by those in the most 'at risk' category. In other words, old, poor, and already infirm.
So it could have been spreading via relatively otherwise healthy people who thought they had caught a cold, or were coming down with the 'flu, or not showing any symptoms at all.
"I've already personally witnessed one person behaving in a challenging way because, as he put it 'I'm immune, I caught it in January"
I too, believe I've already 'had" this thing, in late December. I was seriously ill from Christmas Eve, through to early January. Just look at my 'posting history' here to check! :-) Barely one post a day, and none at all on Dec 28. That's how bad it was! But literally, for a few days I could hardly breathe, and thought I might die. But I live alone, have no 'dependants', and if I die, I die. Won't call an ambulance no matter how bad I feel. But (slowly) recovered. And am interested in the 'now immune' idea, but a good test for that still hasn't been developed, and I'm not going to waste my local hospital's time by volunteering for a 'trial test'. They've got more things more urgent on their hands right now.
Back to your acquaintance who ' pointedly licked his fingers before paying for something in cash'.
That's not only downright irresponsible, but anyone who 'pointedly licks their fingers' before counting out banknotes is ill-mannered in the extreme. Even in 'normal' times. Usually a gesture used by racetrack bookies paying out a winning punter...
aduk .... Patient zero is who the Chinese authorities have been looking for, some seem to think it's a shrimp seller. The article you need to read is below, it explains how genetic analysis now make it possible to trace back the lineage of a virus through those it has infected. Your theory about Europe is somewhat fanciful, stick to the science, don't mean the fictional type.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200221-coronavirus-the-harmful-hunt-for-covid-19s-patient-zero
IAmNotAnAnalyst,
"For that to be true quite a few unproven guesses have to be accurate. Assuming its current form was the same in December there's no chance this could have been freely circulation without anyone noticing the demands on the healthcare system."
I disagree with you. CDV-19 could have been in wide, but thinly-spread circulation in Europe without the health services batting an eyelid. Just 'seasonal flu' with a few 'at risk' patients (maybe already under care) not making it through. Here and there. Nothing statistically important.
It took an 'epicentre' (in this instance Wuhan) for people to sit up and take notice.
Hey! In the part of France where I live, we frequently have earthquakes! (A little-known fact, but true.) Takes something more than 3.5 Richter to even merit a paragraph in the regional newspaper. In fact, the 'shakiness' is almost 'fun'! I remember a (long) weekend away last year, got back home and noticed some pictures on the walls of my flat weren't quite 'plumb'. Just by a couple of millimeters, but I knew there had been an earthquake, and checking the French seismology peoples' site on the net, found it was true. (My pictures are my 'earthquake detector'!)
Wuhan may have been the 'epicentre' and the 'big quake', but there could have been little 'rumblings' going on widespread for a while earlier, without being noticed for what they were.
Of course, these may be 'unproven guesses', but people are now in such a spin over the actual state of things, that I doubt there are many researching back a few months...
Thanks Pecten11 .... I love the folksy, bedside manner.
JAdam ... Just keep to the Disney Channel and you'll fine, failing that, walk back into the corner of your room and finish evolving.
Boobird "People seem to think that there will be vaccine out soon for Covid-19 and as in ww1 " It will all be over by Christmas " but the following is a sobering comment by a researcher.
"More than 30 years and 30 million deaths later, there’s still no approved HIV vaccine -- a cautionary tale for anyone expecting a coronavirus vaccine within the next year, according to Kinch, a former drug developer who’s now associate vice chancellor at Washington University in St. Louis."
Fortunately, a British company has been working on an universal flu vaccine for a number of years and it is just entering phase 3 trials
https://www.pharmiweb.com/press-release/2020-03-10/positive-results-from-phase-iib-field-study-of-flu-v-vaccine-flu-v-003-which-has-been-developed-by-imutex-limited-hvivos-49-joint-venture-with-t
Bartle, when you started posting, I may not have agreed with some of your points of view, but at least they were well written and it appeared you could manage a cogent argument - sadly, as time has gone on, that quality has disappeared, become personal and abusive.
If you are having issues with other parts of your life, you have my sympathy, especially in these current difficult times for most, but please either desist for your own good or ask a professional for help
People seem to think that there will be vaccine out soon for Covid-19 and as in ww1 " It will all be over by Christmas " but the following is a sobering comment by a researcher.
"More than 30 years and 30 million deaths later, there’s still no approved HIV vaccine -- a cautionary tale for anyone expecting a coronavirus vaccine within the next year, according to Kinch, a former drug developer who’s now associate vice chancellor at Washington University in St. Louis."
Pecten11,
"Bartlebobton, you seem obsessed with trying to get a rise out of ADUK"
Thanks for the heads-up. But he doesn't stand a chance. I've got the turkey filtered.
Looks good, thanks for the reminder!!
RoFL
hold a mirror to your face.... Pecten11
I'm not the one confused bartle - 'give wispy opinions plucked out of thin air. '
Pot and kettle - judge yourself by the standards you want to set for others
Don't get confused Pecten11.... the personality disorder and narcissism, sit well and truly at ADUK's door, if you agree with many of his posts fine, but I don't, and am free to question any vacuous statements he makes.
The doc from Imperial is an example of something useful, unlike silly, judgmental statements.
Bartlebobton, you seem obsessed with trying to get a rise out of ADUK - grow up
Most of your contributions are truly pointless and driven by narcissism