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ADUK, that Oxford paper is potentially dangerous (though I fully support them writing it, it's just how it's been publicised rather than peer reviewed), because it would then imply that the incubation period for the virus is far longer than currently thought, which means that for social isolation to have any impact it will go on for far, far longer.
I've already personally witnessed one person behaving in a challenging way because, as he put it 'I'm immune, I caught it in January', then pointedly licked his fingers before paying for something in cash.
The original Ferguson report is well worth everyone read - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
The learned Aduk ; would you kindly expand on your statement, with references, rather than give wispy opinions plucked out of thin air. Unless of course you have heard one of your infamous "whispers" from high government, The WHO, The International Rd Cross, et al.
Good to see too, you have finally realised the coronavirus, isn't a flu virus....just took a bit of time.
"There of plenty of reasons to believe that, and it also applies to other european countries "
ADUK & robone,
For that to be true quite a few unproven guesses have to be accurate. Assuming its current form was the same in December there's no chance this could have been freely circulation without anyone noticing the demands on the healthcare system.
robone,
"I think covid-19 is here in UK since December last year"
There of plenty of reasons to believe that, and it also applies to other european countries. And also in Wuhan, it had been festering for at least two months. A lot of people tend to think the outbreak started in January, but that was simply when the mortality rate became disturbing, and the coronavirus was actually identified as being a new variant.
"I thought it closed down because of the now almost universal practice of keeping two metres away from anyone else (presumably including one's spouse, which may be providing some people with much-needed relief)."
You are lucky enough that you don't need to stay away from your PC or mobile otherwise what would you do with your spare time?
Hand relief?...... supported by memory?
;o),
'One of the biggest Condom manufacturers in the world has just been closed down because of Corona Virus at the factory !'
(BlooBird)
I thought it closed down because of the now almost universal practice of keeping two metres away from anyone else (presumably including one's spouse, which may be providing some people with much-needed relief).
"Bartlebobton:
Malrees... thanks, but that's a generic search, which specific doc...dates things back to the 1950's.... tnks...
Birling... I'm trying not to get too hung up on the date...."
Oh, ok. Sounded as if you were. Dont you agree thats the trouble these days, far too much mis-information being propagated and any challenges deflected.
"If you believe that only 3000 died in Wuhan ask yourself how the Chinese were able to keep the mortality rate so low."
I think covid-19 is here in UK since December last year, I personally know 2 elderly friends who died early this year and they both had flu symptoms, both had been connected to respirators in their finals days.
Sadly nobody in hospital was doing any coronavirus tests.
Wonder myself sometimes what are the real death figures since beginig of 2020, especially in care homes?
"Do you honestly expect them to tell the truth."
Do you think BoJo says the full truth or any of the authority around the world?
I doubt it!.... We are just the numbers on the paper. Fact.
;o(,
DC... as I pointed out before, the WHO...the International Red X... Journos from Reuters and so on... plus a media savvy younger generation are all there. I take the view something would have leaked out about the mortality rate.
If you believe that only 3000 died in Wuhan ask yourself how the Chinese were able to keep the mortality rate so low.
Do you honestly expect them to tell the truth.
Birling... I'm trying not to get too hung up on the date.... My main thrust is the change of a virus which belongs to one family, the mutation, which is common in many flu viruses, albeit CV is not a flu virus.
This article, explains it better than me....
"Influenza A viruses that infect humans can undergo a dramatic antigenic change, called antigenic shift, which generates viruses that cause pandemics. This dramatic change occurs because influenza A viruses have a large animal reservoir, wild aquatic birds. The RNA genome of influenza A viruses is in the form of eight segments. If an intermediate host, probably the pig, is simultaneously infected with a human and an avian influenza A virus, the genome RNA segments can be reassorted, yielding a new virus that has a surface protein that is immunologically distinct from that of influenza A viruses that have been circulating in the human population. Because the human population will have little or no immunological protection against the new virus, a pandemic will result. This is what most likely occurred in the Asian flu pandemic of 1957 and the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968.
And China's lockdown is said to have saved 50,000 lives from reduced pollution as opposed to 3000 lost to the virus.
My source being Michael Burke on the Moral Maze so that's as far as my research goes!
Bloobird
that was easily predictable and has already been reported.
It's been obvious for several years now that the World is getting overcrowded.
But if some religious people think that this Virus is God's way to solve the problem, it is going to badly backfire.
a) Because millions of very bored people are going to be cooped up together for weeks on end.
b) One of the biggest Condom manufacturers in the world has just been closed down because of Corona Virus at the factory !
bartlebobton
You continue to avoid the question.
Did covid 19 originate in China?
DC ... you don't seem to understand, it belongs to a family of viruses....so out of one comes another. So, you'd need to know where the others came from, CV19 isn't the beginning, nor the end... it's a member of a family. Do you get it now ? The key is in the large-scale consistency between genetic relationships ...that is why the Genome was so important with CV19. Scientist wang on about taxonomy, think files and folders, trees and roots...
so that is a NO
Bartlebobton, you state your 'research may not be right' , it certainly appears to be a few years adrift if you're suggesting 2008 for the 1st CV. Whereas Malrees suggestion of the 1960's is close enough to the mid last century to be considered more correct, according to accurate research that is.
Stephen N.J. Korsman MMed FCPath, ... Wolfgang Preiser MRCPath, in Virology, 2012
History
Coronavirus disease was first described in 1931, with the first coronavirus (HCoV-229E) isolated from humans in 1965. https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/coronavirus
And
D. Hamre and J. J. Procknow, “A new virus isolated from the human respiratory tract,” Experimental Biology and Medicine, vol. 121, no. 1, pp. 190–193, 1966. View at: Publisher Site | Google Scholar https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.3181/00379727-121-30734
Malrees... I'm a bit finiky (sp)... thanks... I'll have a further read, my point wasn't the date, it was the virus "family" it belongs to.
DC ... you don't seem to understand, it belongs to a family of viruses....so out of one comes another. So, you'd need to know where the others came from, CV19 isn't the beginning, nor the end... it's a member of a family. Do you get it now ? The key is in the large-scale consistency between genetic relationships ...that is why the Genome was so important with CV19. Scientist wang on about taxonomy, think files and folders, trees and roots...
Bartle, I assumed you were interested in reading more on the subject.
I can assure you that 229E was known in the 1960's though.
Malrees... thanks, but that's a generic search, which specific doc...dates things back to the 1950's.... tnks...
bartlebobton
You continue to avoid the question.
Did covid 19 originate in China?
There is another interesting point a Doctor from Imperial Coll was explaining on the radio this morning.
Keep in mind we are talking about antibodies, with some viruses you might think you have immunity ( ie antibodies in the your white your blood cells). What has been seen to happen though in some cases is when new strain of a virus appears, it accelerates the condition of a patient and it worsens. The thinking is there is some interaction between, the antibodies in your cells, and the new virus. Further research on this is taking place in Australian.
Bartle...I just saw your request, this might help as a link
https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?q=229E+coronavirus+research+1990&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart
Bartle...you wrote "The first Coronavirus was in 2003, another outbreak emerged in SaudiA in 2012".
You say you have done research in this area.
Well, simple facts of much earlier earlier research show that scientists first found evidence of Human Coronaviruses (HCoV) in the 1960s in the noses of people with the common cold. Two Human Coronaviruses are responsible for a large proportion of common colds: OC43 and 229E.
My knowledge doesn't extend in research terms beyond 229E, but I do wonder about whether you have done any research in spite of your claims.
this report isn't convinced that the virus was engineered in the lab:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9