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Maybe pump is from the south west. Nothing wrong with my lovely, my ansum
Tell me more about scannell pumper. What are they working on and who’s been kept alive for five years? Xx
Ok hun. Why are you invested in a junior biotech if you don’t think it’ll hit a pound? They’re not 5% a year managed funds.
A lot of good stuff gets posted on here by knowledgable posters. It just gets ruined and glossed over by drivel from other types of poster like you pumper. Be nice if you could contribute something useful for us. I’m sure everyone would be pleased to hear your insight. The floor is yours.
She said to her lover in this forum . may be one of you in here who know!
Who do you think you are referring to people as "my lovely", do everyone a favor and get lost.
Thanks Pingu - very informative.
Reasonable numbers once you get to clinical trials.
Phase 1 to 2 biomarker Clinical trial success rate.
- Oncology, Non bio marker 28%, bio marker 43.5%
- Autoimmune non 38.9% v bio 55.6%
- Infectious diseases 39.7% v 66.7%
Phase 2 to 3
- oncology non 17.4% v bio 38.8%
- Autoimmune 25.4% v 35.7%
- Infectious diseases 34.7% v 44.4%
A lot of the recorded drug failures happen pre-clinical.
Agree chances are likely higher, but trying to calibrate as everyone talks as if so much is practically a foregone conclusion. Chances are higher, so does that mean a 3 in 10 chance?
I've been in the share 3 years or so...wouldn't fancy having to wait another 2, but perhaps that's how long we might have to wait to have any chance of the $bn valuations others have been touting.
Bogyo - I seem to recall you saying you work in a giant pharma...do you have any insight to offer on success rates for pre-clinical pharma trials?
Solow, thanks very much, very helpful.
Heres a funny....whats the odd of Vlad getting an RNS or a few RNS's out in the next 15 days counting today!! :-)
If you hold it through to take over or past phase 3 trials and it DOES get to market.....
Nobody has ever disagreed with the fact that lots of drugs fail at the end, Hemogenyx because of their humanised mice are at a distinct advantage here, but regardless nobody has ever guaranteed that CDX will definitely make it to market.
It does not matter, it has a very good chance, and if you look at lots and lots of comparisons of some what comparable licencing agreements with pre clinical or phase 1 licencing agreements the patent holder gets millions in up front payments, sometimes billions, here its more likely to be 10's to maybe 100m or so.
THAT payment will blow the MCap away. Everyone is so focused on 2-3 years down the line.
Eli Lilly are willing to invest and take the risk and if it fails it fails, they dont ask for a refund.
In the mean time Hemo have funded HEMO-CAR-T, Covid 19 test, ALL antibody, Covid 19 antibodies etc.....
In reply to Digitt´s question as to the success rate of pre-clinical drugs, I have found this article from Reuters. Seems general success rate is 1 in 10 across the board, dropping to 1 in 20 for oncology. Better odds than I thought, but not an all eggs in one basket investment for me. As always dyor.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pharmaceuticals-success-idUSTRE71D2U920110214
Either way, Vlad is writing cheques and taking holidays all while Eli are starting up Clinical trials and we are days from the end of that extension. Wait must be nearly over :-)
Think they were probably in the finalisation phase of that, before covo hit
We all know that it was due to covo, but do think it was also to agree numbers etc as in the Licencing agreement
Shaggy the extension was I am almost certain due to the Covid-19 lockdown and the closing of labs. Had Covid19 not struck no extension would have been required.
No doubt Eli want to be announcing the start of Phase 1 trials to coincide with the signing of the licencing agreement but they were all put on hold for months so you can understand the frustration.
Was it 2 weeks ago Eli announced they are resuming Clinical trials? You would imagine there was some backlog and existing trials will get moving first, IE new volunteers for existing trials before completly new trials. But that means they can now sign and announce scheduling of Phase 1 trials which up to now was out of their control.
Side note that Licencing agreement comes with a big upfront cash payment, yesterday Hemogenyx announced a sponsored program with University of Penn... Wonder where Vlad is planning to get the money to pay for that program from... hmm....
I really think this 3month extension was only to work out and agree to the numbers etc.
And in addition to this, if you were not happy as a company with the progress and the partnership so far and you were thinking of walking away, why would you let Hemogenyx issue a RNS with the details of your company and that you are in a JV, if you wasn’t happy and this was discussed you would say no don’t let them tell the world that have collaborated with us. Roll on Monte Carlo!!!
Look when you sit in front of your share holders and say we are very confidant that a deal will be done and you say that you are very happy with the results so far on any work you have done in a JV with a global company, the signs are very good. When that company says it has 5 Billion to effectively spend this year and more, why would they even think about walking away, It won’t happen. Not long now and we will all be in a better more secure place and let’s not forget the CDX licensing agreement is just one of many things that could propel the SP to a different level. GLA
If you are so heavily invested in Hemo as JHFH, you take off less days than the Vlad himself! I expect JHFH would be an instant centibillionaire if this ever booms to £1. He will be inviting all of us to his superyacht in Monte Carlo when it happens!
Clinical trials and actually getting any treatment to market where its generating revenues of 100s of Mil will take years.
Right now Hemo have proved that what they have works in pre-clinical and is good enough to take to clinical trials.
That is enough for Hemogenyx to multibag on licencing just from up fron payments, talking nonsense about it MIGHT fail at phase 3 is completely irrelevant.
It is a total nonsense comparing hemo to motif bio. First MTFB had one antibiotic that had already run into problems in clinical studies that they were trying to register in a sub population of renal impaired patients as they can not use vancomycin. There was nothing very exciting about the product or the he market- now compare that to the multiple ground breaking products that hemo are working on, the big pharma partners that obviously recognise the potential, the market size for each of the therapeutic areas they are going after : it is a totally different prospect- albeit none are currently in clinical stages and it could be several years before any are likely to be approved. Before that several years are up they will obtain commercial agreements with big pharma with milestone payments and the sums of those milestone payments will be multiples of the current market cap. I think hemo has a lot more to offer than mtfb