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@Scott
Your right, I believe the other two fields do have sub surface salt horizons, so I guess as long as they intend to drill those fields the worst outcome is to become a LTH while waiting for success in those fields.
Also DM seems to have changed plan B to plan C after the latest seismic survey
Plan A Rukwa, Tai and others(unsure if still all 3)
Plan B, Rukwa, Re-evalute, both field and knowledge;understanding/interpretations,
Plan C Eyasi, and/or Balangida
So I get the impression that confidence in Rukwa has increased
Still the risks are there,. and all we have to go on is the info we are provided
Cheers Seagullsfan, but remember this my first mining stock, so what I post does not have much experience behind it, so you need to verify it and , if possible give some feedback, even if its doubts..
Seals,, back to basics...pulled from the investor meeting
Slide "Helium Play Genesis" @ 17:46
helium/nitrogen gas needs to be trapped in systems which are the same reservoir, seal ,trap structures that you would find in a conventional gas project.
Sedimentary basins have the potential and the capacity to trap and store helium in economic concentrations.
He1 pegged out high-grade helium/nitrogen seeps adjacent to sedimentary basins with potential.
Slide "Tai structure"@ 32:57
"we've got you know nice repeating reservoir seal structures especially throughout the karoo "
"up into the lake beds and even into shallow sediments there's potential for good trapping structure for good reservoir sealed couplers to form"
so it's the stacked HORIZONS which has really helped us to prioritize Tai
SeagullsFan, I hope deep down we will all make some decent money here so we can take care of our families and possibly do some good around us too. I wish you make a killing here, and on the other stocks we own too. ;0) as I think you are a genuine person and kind in your words. Stay safe mate.
Dai, I am not too worried about the size of the reservoirs to be honest, more than I am regarding the quality of the seal for the traps. That is the only thing I am interested in finding out more details if we could, but now it is down to the drill..the drill will speak to us soon.
ATB
@ST, dont trust what I post, nearly posted totally wrong calculations, woke up and found beer induced calculations, to complicated for me, thought DeepBlueDiver had hacked my PC... When I realised the mistake, I knew I had not been hacked.
When I reworked it I got SiesPro Porosity ratio..Now I dont know what to do with it ;)
End of the day, its down to the Drill, and lots of educated interpretations of the data by the He1 team.
And for the posters here, its working the clues to adjust the odds on our bets
And for the individual poster working out which posts are B":":"|"ks, which could be mine..
ST, DAI, SP, DBD.
Can’t thank you guys enough for the absolutely amazing work you have all put in on detailing what you think the potential and risks are here. I have a substantial sum invested and the reassurance your deliberations provide are much appreciated.
Yes, it could all go wrong - but if it does, then that’s life. But, I think deep-down we all feel something special is happening, with the potential to be life changing for those of us who have bought into this.
Just hope ST you’ve been able to do the trades you needed to get done and pick up some more here.
DAi, we just keep reading and working out the maths in the background to give us the best position to understand our investment here is safer today than it was yesterday; it is fine to miss words mate, I don't care anymore..too old to bother, just don't miss on the beer mate.
@ST
I am keeping both feet on the ground, my excitement is all about having an excuse for more beer based research,, it takes many bottles to work through his posts..
Its a "Must Drink" read ;)
and like I miss out words in my posts, I do the same reading, and make some up too :(
Dai: "@SiesPro - Truthfully now, are you a paid ramper? Only joking, its just that your observations are really exciting :)"
I think what SP just expresses the same excitement as the team if HE1 has, Dai; the are going to possibly blow the damn doors off of the biggest Helium field ever found in the world, and can 't wait to open their presents..that's why the rush in DM's efforts.
"not dependent on salt" can be our mantra.
But "not dependent on salt" can be good or bad. Good if you have another effective seal of a much better size and type of reservoir.
But bad if the seal is not effective. Sealing helium is tough. Tiny atom. Salt is crystalline and the best seal. Maybe helium needs salt seal. We are about to find out.
DM has already said that if Rukwa doesn't work out (he hated to even go there but was pressed about a plan B at one of the Q and A sessions), then the other two areas may have areas with salt seals.
@SiesPro
Truthfully now, are you a paid ramper?
Only joking, its just that your observations are really exciting :)
@DeepblueDiver & SiesProcessor
luckily stumbled on the transcripts, as often not added..
Yes, I struggled looking at the table side ways, holding the side plank position, plus reading and taking notes was difficult.
Too stupid to rotate the screen, hindsight hey..I just forget these days..
oh, I see Gas not Helium, sorry, sometimes stuff does not register, well often, nightmare
From the table..
I worked out the recovery ratio as SRK 0.6364, Inseisive 0.7
then helium content SRK 0.03898, Inseisive 0.047
Then the big assumption, Porosity( i guess its porosity ?)
+Rukwas rift basin is 50kmx300km=50,000x300,000=15,000,000,000km^2
In this instance Assuming a 500m depth of Resource, volume =7,500,000,000,000 m^3
Assuming 100% Gas no rock,
7500000000000m^3=264860 bcf
+ Then using the given total OGIP P50 4842, to find the ratio..
I get 0.1828..
which is Seisprocessors posted ratio for porosity, no beer either, just lots of fresh air and mud today..
My task for tonight, will be structures..this sounds really really interesting(b&*^&*y exciting)..
The two targets at Tai are broad structural ones and not subtle stratigraphic ones, and they're not dependent on salt or seals in the lake bed sediments. Hopefully that's why they're termed 'must drill' targets!
Should be posted every morning "The two targets at Tai are broad structural not dependent on salt or seals in the lake bed sediments"
@seisprocessor, looking at the permeability range from the very limited data, i would hazard a guess closer to 60% (technical, EUR estimate) recovery of gas based on E&P analogues, assuming no losses in the system. indeed, they HE1 have been very cautious in their reports and data share.
You're welcome dai2belts!
Thanks for the transcript copy/paste tip.
You probably deserved a beer or two after ploughing through all my comments last night:-)
Looking at the basement geology and the fact that helium seeps are 10% concentrations at Itumbula, I can't see why they would be any less at Tai.
In fact, with Kasuku, Miombo and Tai being closer to the rift valley wall and sources of helium liberation by hydrothermal fluids, you'd expect them to be at least the same concentration.
Add in the fact that the recovery factor of gas in the porous sandstone reservoirs is likely to be closer to 40% than 20% and that the drill might discover more sandstone units and of thicker sequence; then any cautious, pessimistic estimates tend to just get bigger and bigger as knowledge gets added and the field develops.
Dai2belts
Is the Kasuku supposed be 11.39," ..
i just checked the data again: http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf, page 31 (painful neck looking at it sideways!)
P50 gas recoverable (unrisked): 111.39 bcf
P50 He recoverable (unrisked): 6.97 bcf
P50 He risked recoverable: 0.7329 bcf
(at the risk of confusing readers), please be reminded that these are old dataset from the link above and reposted for data integrity, discussion and sharing purposes. This information have been superseded following the recent completion of 2D infill and brought Tai up to the top rank for drilling. We are just attempting to estimate the volume again ahead of DM sharing latest results.
please DYOR.
The trend for the last 2 trading days has risen faster than the previous weekly trend. We hit a weak ceiling at 22p (last hit on the 5th), before falling back into the 1st monthly channel and moving between the top of the channel and the old floor at 20.89p.
The next ceilings appear to be the top of the channel (currently 21.5p) which should cross the next ceiling of 22p tomorrow at close at the latest if the trend continues. After this, there may be slight resistance at 23p before the previous peak of 24.32p.
2 days is not enough of a trend to predict anything, but with the drill potentially starting in less than 20 days - on a prime target, I am hopeful it will continue.
https://ibb.co/hdPxBHD
@seisprocessor, much appreciate,
I got my axis mixed up, you had already explained the Y, so lucky for me you explained both.:)
Just realized how long I have been working through your posts..Takes so many read throughs these days, but interesting switching through the slides and following the logic. So grabbed a beer..
I assumed from the old SRK data we now had 1 target in the lake bed region instead of 2, then took the Red Sandstone(old SRK) target for the karoo target(new data) . And you have both in the Karoo.. MMMmmm..
I cant hold much info these days, and not so sharp noticing changes between docs, I think we are both close. :)
So I will find the right target locations, as I know I have it..
The upper is at the base of the lake bed, and below the red line, so I guess Red Sandstone
The lower target is in the karoo..
I believe above the red line is the lake beds, and above 0.3s is sediments..
Info is in this video, you can switch on the transcript for this one, in my browser below the video there are options to save, share, and 3 dots, the 3 dots have the transcript option which you can copy and past with or without time stamps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4zVkhSXlNw&t=1985s
In about 2 weeks I will have forgotten that I have forgotten this..
yes most people are holding shares now, they should be setting up the drill this week !! expecting 30p-40p range when drilling. If we hit in June then SP going to be Over £1 a share or 400% +++ ^^^^
Strong finish on USA currently up just over 18% @ 32c equivalent 23p so could well get our 10% rise tomorrow. This should rerate dramatically over the next few trading sessions leading into spud news.
and the 2nd part....
So a question if you don't mind and whenever, no rush, will be here for a long time.
Looking at Strike, line 14, about 0.4s, those black and red lines are from the same deposits/time?
Yes, the black and red lines belong to the same strata i.e. same age.
Then at about 0.3s above the trap the missing lines are erosion rather than slipping down through movement into 0.4s?
The missing lines above 0.3s are due to the time gap from when the Red Sandstone group was tilted and then the lake bed sediments were laid down uniformly on top after the faulting and possibly some erosion of the Sandstone ceased.
One question really.
Looking again, I might be seeing lines pushing up, which makes the missing ones erosion?
There are the two fault lines causing a discontinuity in the strata. There isn't much downthrown movement in the strike direction, but on Line 13 dip line, the interpreter has pencilled in a large downthrown difference on the left/western side of the major strike/slip fault - see how the red/yellow/pale blue lines jump down a long way.
The other clue to depths is in the cartoon schematic of the geology on page 12, showing the base of the Red Sandstone formation at only 500m depth. The rift valley wall runs NW-SE and Tai is about the same distance from the basement walls as Kasuku and Miombo, so I would expect the same depths of lake bed sediments for Tai as shown in the map on page 11 for Kasuku & Miombo.
Itumbula is further out towards the centre of the basin with a markedly thicker sequence of overlying lake bed sediments.
The cartoon shows most of the blue shaded targets as within the top Karoo supergroup formation - Kasuku has 3 such zones.
So for me, and it is imho, that the strong red/black lines below 0.3-0.4s belong to the Red Sandstone Group and that the interpreter has illustrated the 2 targets in the upper and lower Karoo supergroup formation, one below the red line and one below the yellow line.
The cartoon doesn't show prospects at the top of the Red Sandstone formation, other than Kasuku & Itumbula.
The two targets at Tai are broad structural ones and not subtle stratigraphic ones, and they're not dependent on salt or seals in the lake bed sediments. Hopefully that's why they're termed 'must drill' targets!
dai2belts,
thanks for the questions!
I've just been reading the posts of the day and come across your comments, so will do my best to answer them!
Do you know why the seismic sections do not seem to show the length and width of the closure, to me both the strike and dip sections show similar size targets, but I dont know what the y-axis scale is?
Yes, both strike and dip sections show similar size targets, but i think the NW-SE trending Line 14 strike line is the direction with 5km closure and Line 13 dip line is shown the similar size but more likely to have the 2km closure in the SW-NE direction at right angles to the main faults.
The y-axis going down is two way travel time from 0 to 2500 milliseconds at the bottom.
The x-axis going along the top is distance, and the numbers annotated are shot point numbers, although they're plotted at a scale of 80 traces/km so they're all crammed in so you can't make out the numbers. No matter, the clue is in the scale bar in the yellow contour inset map.
Above the SP numbers on Line 14, you'll see some annotations with a vertical dash |
These correspond to the locations of the dip lines 09,10,11,12 & 13. The distance between dip lines 11 and 13 is 2500m, and on line 14 this spans half of the target area, so the full target area with the perfect dip closure is 5km.
@deepbluediver
The only clues given were the seismic where the depths can be estimated, and the closure being 5x2km but DM mentioned closure could be a little bigger
"maybe two to three kilometers wide and five kilometers long"
Do you know why the seismic sections do not seem to show the length and width of the closure, to me both the strike and dip sections show similar size targets, but I dont know what the y-axis scale is? not important just interested..
Thanks, DeepBlueDiver
Is the Kasuku supposed be 11.39,
I think initially I was looking at double digits based on the largest resources in the P50 table, then Seispro produced the calculation with explaination, and more details on the depth of the traps. so my Sunday evening of beer and learning was put in my lap..
Using the siesmic details, trap size(depth) and 2 traps, I compared with original Tai OGIP, Recoverable, and He values, and the change in number of targets from 3 to 2.
Assumed both Lake beds were now shown as one target at 1.48 bcf(original)., as only 1 lake bed target shown in seismic. The other target being in the Red sandstone I assumed was still present, but siesmic indicated it was larger than that in the lake bed, so now at least 1.48 bcf, was 0.26bcf, so much larger.. So thats how I deduced 3bcf..but if you add the fact the sandstone target is lager, probably about x1.35 bigger then 2bcf, so you have 3.5 bcf.. but pure speculation, and I think conservative..
I also reworked all the ratios, and also attempted estimating the ratio OGIP to land km^2 using two different assumed resource depths..Good beer fuels the mind. Need another to work out what I did :)
Its probably incorrect but ended up with 3.28bcf, probably pure coincidence.
Just need 10% volume now..
just found it:
Posted in: HE1
RE: Question regarding the drilling.12 May 2021 09:35
Partial quote:
"Other notes on Tai while I was looking around:
BASED ON OLD DATA (IRRELEVANT)
-- Targeting (recoverable, mid case) 1.74 bcf of 138 bcf (unrisked) of He (source page 31, SRK CPR.
-- These numbers are superseeded - larger than initially thought of, following completion of 2D infill work).
BASED ON RECENT TAI HIGH GRADING
-- Currently Tai is expected to be larger than the initial main targets of Kasuku [ 111.39 bcf unrisked] and Itumbula [14.52 bcf unrisked]
Dai, agree with you.
That last statement is speculative and broad brush based on my reading between the lines when HE1 high graded Tai - I might be wrong here on speculated volumes (still no data shared by HE1 right? or did i miss it) as the driver for high grading following 2D infill could be better CoS or mixed of CoS and volumes, rather than volumes only. Perhaps lets wait until we get more info and we can do a bit of work on our end.
@Deepbluediver, would that be the permeability, and porosity post?
Anything over 2 weeks gets wiped from my mind, so will be a good refresher.
Once I have recovered yesterdays volume escapade, sometimes its better to wait and see :) too many assumptions required for the info we are given..
Dai, DBD, ST.
Again, thanks for your detailed posts on this. Just goes to show there is so much which is really unknown.
Not long to go now until we are, hopefully, celebrating a successful drilling exercise.