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Anyone know how many warrants remain outstanding?
Co still in closed period, so cannot say anything that could affect share price. Like for instance: the new target has a salt seal and the prospect is huge proven.
biggest observation of the weekend :)
I have read the recent rns and I have noticed that there was no mention of Helium seepage at ground level
Is it because it's there and it's too much info at this stage before drilling
I am with you re strategy as we go through the drills - it is not easy and we will all differ as to how we play it.
My probabilities were for 1 drill - ie trying to pierce 4 traps with a single hole, not 4 sequential wells. On top of that we then have 3 more wells which I did not go into. Clearly the first well will alter probabilities of the remainder as info on migration, trap permeability etc will then be known to some extent which will change future COS calcs
Kalinit - At the risk of seeming patronising !.....if ur trying to work out chance of 1 hit happening from 4 drills u don't need to go thru all the permutations:
assuming 12% CoS on all drills then 88% of failure on all drills
Chance of all drills failing = 0.88 x0.88 x 0.88 x0.88 = 0.6 = 60 % So the chance of at least one hit would be the other 40%
Of course the numbers need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt because the 12% figure is basically taken from the recent historical CoS of all wild cat drills. I actually think our chances are better than that . I would say better than 50/50 over the 4 drills - of course you have to make up your own mind.
The interesting thing for me is working out a strategy as the drills come up : If 1st misses how far will share price drop ? how far will it rise as we go to 2nd drill ? ie do i top slice before 1st drill to have money ready to catch the bottom again.
Tricky business this !
Please, bear in mind that info on page 102, as well as some info on the whole doc, doesn't take into account the news 2D seismic carried out that makes TAI a "look like a sore thumb" making it a "MUST DRILL" target, with a bigger area and better geo understanding!
My head was hurting, trying to work out the maths. As you can see, maths isn't my strong point :) Thankfully, posters with bigger brains than mine have stepped in. Thanks Kalinit/Trek.
I was just trying to get the idea of risk over to people who might not have considered how hit and miss this businesss can be . I have seen a few posters over the last few days who don't seem to appreciate this.
Anyway, it all looks good here and I'm comfortable with my investment. I'm glad my post stimulated a bit of discussion .
Kalinit, check page 102.
Tai has 3 targets if I understand it rightly. You will get all the Ps for each target and Helium estimates.
All the best
Evening Mick, Trek, SpaceT.
Thanks for all the work on COS.
All we need in the first instance is ONE target to be a strike, given that the lowest P50 in the previous target was 19bcf and each 10 bcf =1TCF in gas terms, any strike will be commercial.
Prior to the switch to Tai, we were given details of the 4 targets on the first well we were going to drill, 1+1a, 2, 2a, 3+4. See below for the multiple ways of achieving 1 or more strikes. I read somewhere the COS for any single layer was 10-14% (so take it as 12%). If so, the overall COS of 1 or more strikes in a 4 stack play is 39% (see tables below for all the combinations which are multiplied to give the total fifth column and then add the right hand 5th columns to get a total COS.)
TRG 2a 3+4 2 1+1a
Hit 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Miss 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88
1 Hit 0.12 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.082
0.88 0.12 0.88 0.88 0.082
0.88 0.88 0.12 0.88 0.082
0.88 0.88 0.88 0.12 0.082
2 Hits 0.12 0.12 0.88 0.88 0.011
0.12 0.88 0.12 0.88 0.011
0.12 0.88 0.88 0.12 0.011
0.88 0.12 0.12 0.88 0.011
0.88 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.002
0.88 0.88 0.12 0.12 0.011
3 Hits 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.88 0.002
0.12 0.12 0.88 0.12 0.002
0.88 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.002
0.12 0.88 0.12 0.12 0.002
4 Hits 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.0003
Total COS = 0.39 = 39%
Does anyone know how many layers/targets there are in Tai?
Does anyone know what COS each Tai layer/target has?
When we have that info we can make an overall 1 strike or more COS calculation for Tai. Happy to do the maths if someone can find the number of targets and COS for each. Given DM is clearly much more excited about Tai than the previous choice of well, I wonder if COS per target layer is greater???? or are the volumes bigger???
Would be great to have some answers from you guys if you have them, and then we can all have some real figures to use for our own individual investment strategies.
Credit to trek.
That's some meaty long message!
Thank you Trek.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but where would the porosity factor come in here, I thought the helium was in a pocket
An earlier post on the geo...
Faulted anticline traps, sediment, fault or salt seal
I expect ours is the fault trap in this pick but with stacked targets down along the fault. There are likely different types of traps along the Rift Valley depending on stresses. The anticlines eventually fracture over years. Gravity takes the gas to the top of the trap.
We have Stacked 3 way faults.
Well defined traditional traps. Proven technology to extrapolate helium. DME are already doing it!
We know there is helium from seeps and we know there are unlikely to be HC’s from previous drills!
The market absolutely gets this. A normal 3 way fault is very likely to have a seal, very bullish!
I posted before I expected a delay but not due to this wow!
There needs to be a thermal release of the helium produced in ancient deep crust and in Rukwa this is caused by the crust ripping apart due to a mantle plume (upwelling of abnormally hot rock) underneath East Africa. This is exceedingly rare, which is why it is unusual to find large primary helium deposits globally. This rifting and associated magmatism focuses the flow to the near-surface along major basement faults. Helium and nitrogen-rich water is thought to flow along fault and fracture zones. Numerous thermal springs release bubbles of helium and nitrogen through surface seepages, indicating migration along major fault zones.
There are suitable reservoirs at multiple stratigraphic levels that have the capability to hold helium with good porosity. The sandstone reservoirs have been proven by the two wells drilled in 3 stratigraphic levels: the Lake Bed Formation, Red Sandstone Group and Karoo Super Group. The basin is dominated by sand (i.e. potential reservoirs) with shales (potential seals) more sparsely distributed.
The two historic (dry) petroleum exploration wells in the Rukwa Basin demonstrate stratigraphy with effective seal capacity. Additionally, bentonitic tuff beds described in the Lake Bed Formation and Red Sandstone Group have the potential for high-quality seals. Seals are present within and at the top of the Karoo section as evidenced by the Ivuna-1 well. Observed seismic amplitude anomalies are conformable to structural highs may be related to gas effect in the rock, in which case effective seal is demonstrated although well data is required to confirm this relationship.
Migration can be halted by seals or traps. If trapping structures are present on the migration pathway, a gas phase can accumulate. The trap will be filled with helium-rich gas until full and then spill. The excess spilt fraction if not trapped further up in the system will escape at surface seeps.
Helium can be trapped at the top of the Red Sandstone by lacustrine shales at the base of the Lake Beds and anywhere within alternating sand/ shales throughout the Lake Bed sequence. The traps can be identified using seismic data. In the Karoo play, the dominant trapping geometry is rotated extensional fault blocks creating 3-way dip closures with fault seal in the 4th direction. The trapping style within the Lake Bed play is more varied than for the Karoo: there are gentle 3-way closures against faults as tested by the Ivuna-1 well and minor inversion structures, low relief 4-way traps, stacked low-relief 3-way traps against the fault. Stratigraphic trapping may also be present within the rift.
You have to also factor in that each drill may be hitting 3 or more stacked targets. Due to what we know about the structures and gravitational highs and evidence of water flow which is essential for helium accumulation it is likely that seals are in place. Some of the seeps will be from overspill some will be due to source rock permeability.
My concern was more around damaging traps whilst drilling so that the Helium leaks out and we loose pressure. This has been ameliorated by DME’s successes.
Also having Mitchell’s doing the drilling and appraisal is key as it’s less likely to lead to well damage. I am about as confident as can be.
For sure the probability calculations are essential. They are used to raise capital set valuations etc and until we drill we won’t know. But what we will know is any success on the first drill derisks the rest significantly! The next posts from Hannam ones confidence.
Was wondering in TAI specifically, from where they were, to now in terms of info and knowledge about that site. Also the fact they have moved this site to first drill ,( can't find the original where I think it was stated). I'd guess COS, although at this stage, not having much relevance, has improved.
I think TAI was from SRK, and the previous targets were all Inseismic CPRs.
Just wondering, how does the calculation takes into account a single drill with various stacks? ;0)
Adding to that my calculator gives a completely different answer, and more favorable
And where did you get the figures from especially the seal figure
Would anyone know DM’s track record of successful drills? He comes across as very confident which fills me with confidence.
I can't disagree with you mick cause I really don't know about it.
But I assume that was for drill singular? So 1 in 4 drills statistically should be a success at a 25% chance for 1 drill?
He1 have 9 drills meaning out of the 9 we should by rights see 2 successful drills on those odds.
I know each drill alone always will have the same probability of failure as the next but accumulation of drilling more holes would mean a tier chance of success.
It's nice that someone's put actual figures onto the success of this project. I know alot of us (myself included) just believe this will work out how we hope. I spose we have to otherwise we wouldn't be here haha
The overall CoS of a drill is the probability of each of the geological factors coming good, multiplied together.
Probability of 1 = certainty; Probability of 0=impossibility. The best probability you will see for any given factor would be about 0.95 because nothing is certain :)
Consider the following example:
The overall CoS is 0.9x0.9x0.9x0.5= 0.266 or 26.6% chance of success.
If you subtract this from 1, it gives the corresponding chance of failure:
1.0-0.266= 0.734 or 73.4% chance of failure.
Failures are to be expected in exploration. The trick is to be right more often than wrong.
Please note, I am not making any judgement about Helium1's prospects, just sharing my experience as an O&G investor.