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GGP was flying at one point in the 30's then had disappointing Scallywag results followed by Gervais Heddle leaving and being replaced by Sean Day who is more of a corporate/ii guy to take it further who is only really being accepted by PIs after lacking a bit of polish at the start.
They currently have a 25% interest in JV with Newcrest in mine Haverion which is in it's infancy. There seems to be no doubt though that it's a world class asset and the new CEO has pitched that he sees GGP becoming a multi billion pound company.
I'll caveat this with I more understand companies that deal in widgets than mining and like here am more of a passenger over there (I only view and rarely post on GGP). My energy/mining investments are HE1/GGP/SENX/GLEN.
Never been in GGP so couldn't say much on them but mining metals minerals is hell and a longer term bet than here Their mcap peaked at about 600m? Investors hoping for a buyer right? Because production could cost a ocean full of cash. Not that I'm deramping that, but their journey obviously has bit a slow progress stage.
In fact my view is looking at GGP mcap without production is useful, it sets ceilings to meet or break. No chickens or eggs here
…further, I think the loose comparison with HE1 right now would be if the SP reflected an assumption that the helium was x% (some bullish number), when the discover shows it to be at y% (a good but lower number) - of course we’ve still got to discover
PS. with GGP there was also buyout talk which subsided in the partnership deal
Hi screen You may have timed that very well, or very badly. But you're in now. The h&p report uses public data and three CPR on the prospects. They estimate a price value of 58mcf and a 10% value of that onto SP. So their view is TAI will add 27p, but also derisk the other planned drills. In a later report they wrote geological COS increases by 50% in the other prospects, if Tai is good.
Then in a later report, from that,they said Geological cos is increased from the seismics.
If you take that first idea that Geo. COS increases by 50%, you can deconstruct and reconstruct the SP to 69p if Tai is good adding their predictions of derisking. If Tai hits 8%HE with same Gas in place you can call Tai a 58p + derisk= SP of 100p ( 27p derisked initial + 31p which is the derisked and unrisked at double bubble HE rates). If Tai is 2% HE H+P reports extrapolates to 53p.
I keep harping on, but it's a frontier commodity so undecideds and unknowns abound. One thing to remember, if Oil is found in a prospect then neighbouring prospect increases COS, but uncommercial oil risk is still there. That risk doesn't apply here. There is no bad kind of Helium *In no way am I declaring a 100% accuracy of H+P reports. But merely using the most applicable source and evidence
I’m in GGP and the big rise was upon the haverion discovery. They keep drilling and hitting decent mineralisation but the SP is tracking back. Probably need to factor in the drop in POG from pandemic highs as well but the point remains.
That said I don’t know much about geology/mining but thought it was a point worth making.
Thanks, Keith Yes I am new here. But for your info I was expecting to have to wait a while for my, probably smallish compared to others here, investment to pay off. Of course I won't complain it the SP rockets in the coming week or so, but my expectiaton is that normally 'speculative' investments like this is (in my opinion only - I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade) often take time to realise their full potential. I invested because, given the imporance and potential scarcity of Helium, it seemed a good long term investment.
Hi Mr Screen L-plate. 1st with my business development hat on - I started this thread primarily to open up a wider perspective, particularly for those who have recently joined the board, many of whom are here apparently for just a quick buck on 1st drill results, then get out. 2nd with my exploration geologist (hard) hat on - copper and other metallic ores are normally found in small (often less than 1 km across) economic deposits, of variable grade, so you first have to find them, then put in a sufficient number of holes to be sure of what you have. With the Rukwa basin, He is being produced continuously from great depth over a very wide area. What you need to do is find the structures that can trap it - one hole into a trap will confirm the presence of He or otherwise. If successful, this first drill at the Tai prospect will confirm the entire Rukwa hypothesis, that has been developed over 65 years, and de-risk what could be the world's largest He resource. This is why everybody is getting their knickers in a twist and coming up with share price forecasts that range from hopeful to deluded.
Of course one drill does not quantify the size of the find, it just increases the chance that it is a big one (and hence the sp will respond accordingly, basically from zero to hero!), however to truly delineate the field/reservoir will require multiple drills and logging to build an understanding of the reservoir. This analysis then has to be certified/endorsed by an independent body, this is called a Competent Persons' Report (CPR). only then will the facts be certified and the sp underpinned, however prior to that the sp will have gone hyper anyway!
What about crossing bridges? Running before walking ? lol, A Serious question though: are people expecting the results of one drill hole to make such a huge difference to the SP? Doesn't it usually take quite a few drill holes to confirm the 'size' of a find. Or is He in some way different from say Copper deposits in that it needs fewer drill results?
Very unique and peculiar market. Exxon as far as I know only produce in America and solely at the BlM point. That's why they have big % of global production ,but have no global footprint as they do in oil. Then it's all nationalised/ or market nationalised like in Qatar and Russia.
For me there is natural X to walk in, but heck of a lot of companies like Exxon and shell with a heck of a lot of mining history who need to reduce hydrocarbons. Purely speculation I think America have enough, don't think the Russians will move, they would want to buy purely from Amur. That leaves Chinese, who would have Taiwan by the balls for their semiconductor productions. Then Thai, Korea, Vietnam , Indonesia.
But I’d be disappointed if we did and this doesn’t hit at least £1 very quickly reading some of the forecasts.I think it’s Exxon who have 20% of the market so let’s see who and where we go from here.the world awaits.