The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
oh ok Guilty as charged then!!!
I assume he means you, Davey...!!
"When even the cheerleader in chief is in despair, surely that is actually signalling a huge buy opportunity??"
Who is that?
Nice bounce in NY today to brighten the mood. Not that the SP is anything to boast about.
However many larger pharma and growth stocks have also been under pressure recently as the investment tides appear to be turning.
When even the cheerleader in chief is in despair, surely that is actually signalling a huge buy opportunity??
I continue to add for the very long term.
As expected there was no mention of potential listings and there were no Analayst Questions, all questions were stated by the BoA Analayst. It was a general discussion about the pipeline and compelling events for the remainder of the year.
Very good analysis, tacly.
You are spot on about the reasons behind lowering share price. Every investor, big or small, who has put their money into this company has done so, after doing due research about the management, its assets, research facilities, openings it has made in the USA, drugs in the pipeline and future potentials. When all such prospects have been intact and progressing well (as per company’s news releases so far), why should any investor be inclined to sell at a loss? Hence, the drip feeding of small selling orders is, very likely, deliberately done so as to keep the shares low. But, for what reasons? Is it to scare away all private investors? Does it help the company to quote significantly lower initial listing price in HK/Shanghai?
Btw, what’s on the agenda in today’s investors conference? Are we going to see the repeat act of selected financial analysts turning into onco-pharmaceutical experts asking questions about the role of particular chemical molecules of different drug candidates waiting in the pipeline? Shall we expect to hear /see some decent (and honest) discussion about Asian listing/s, migration to the main LSE market and collaborations with major pharmas etc.,?
"As the result of the lacking of buying interest, even a small-ish sell can push down the share price dramatically as the market makers will just push down the price until someone buy the shares."
I think that is my main concern. I have no issues with the Company, its stunning progress, strategy and the fantastic Leadership Team, but I am concerned how a small sell-off can wipe hundreds of millions off the mcap, and how that could put off future Investors.
Up till now I believe the Hutchmed board and HHHL, having mishandled their ADS placements a few times, are quite happy with relying on getting big chunks of $100M investment from GA, Baring etc to finance the company to the point of “proven commercial success first”, then do a HK/Shanghai listing.
Why did GA, Baring etc invest? It must be the promise of jam tomorrow with Hutchmed meeting milestones and HK/Shanghai listing pushing up the share price.
Thus the company has been either deliberately keeping the share price low in order to attract these big chunks of $100M investments, or incompetently handling the situation. Either way, the result is same: the share price is low and getting worst. It is quite alarming to see that the achievement of milestones or getting awards did not make any difference. There has been a persistence lack of interest in buying HCM shares.
As the result of the lacking of buying interest, even a small-ish sell can push down the share price dramatically as the market makers will just push down the price until someone buy the shares.
I am beginning to doubt whether a HK listing can rescue the share price now as the company may have waited too long and missed the opportunity. Surely, any potential future Chinese investors in HK/Shanghai will look at Hutchmed’s share price history on Nasdaq and AIM markets and wonder whether this company is investable. They too buy shares to make money, not because of patriotic duties.
I will see how Christian Hogg presents himself at the fireside chat. Up till now I think he behaves more like a Chief Scientific Officer than a CEO while the Chair, CFO and CSO are nowhere to be seen. Not sure the non-execs are worth their money either.
I am certainly wouldn’t buy anymore Hutchmed shares. I am agonising as to whether I should hold until 2024 “proven commercial success first” HK/Shanghai listing, or dump it now while I am still in a tiny profit and buy it back when the share is lower, or just call it a day and move on.
Selling while the share price is rapidly down is rarely a good idea unless there are clear signals of the company heading toward bankruptcy which Hutchmed is definitely not.
HHHL, GA, Baring, Christian Hogg, etc all have big chunks of skin in the game. There is literally billions of dollars at stake here. No way these guys will stand idly and let Hutchmed sink.
So it’s a hold for me. It’s time like this that you need to have nerves of steel. Numbers don’t lie.
I have been a regular buyer for the last 5 years and am currently sitting on large losses, whilst the share price may have got ahead of itself 3 years ago I assumed it would remain static and not fall back by 35%.
Valuation updated to $43.10/ADS or 663p/share We value HUTCHMED using a DCF-based sum of the parts approach, including a detailed pipeline rNPV model. Reviewing assumptions post-FY20 results generates in an uplift in our valuation to
$6.27bn/£4.83bn, from $6.1bn or £4.7bn previously
Today the market values Hutchmed @ $25 per adr, nowhere near the theoretical $43.10 attributed b y TD.