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RNS! And, we’re off…
Not since 2016. Great news.
Awesome
Looking good....
A number of people entering around 3p might think the same esp if there is a lack of operating results.
For 2022, i expect EBITDA of $120-150m and as the cash rolls in , equity value should replace debt as it gets paid off.
it sounds optimistic, but if you look at 2014/15 and similar companies, you will see the powerful operational gearing inherent in the business.
Agree, that they might want to drop the Seafox junk assets into the company...
A 5-6p bid would suit me just fine now. Did an average down in the raise and now just hoping that the price doesn't fall too much below the 3p mark!
If anyone could have done it, I think it was Castro....but being a legacy holding and almost worthless position, I can see why they don't want to put in more money and pick a fight with SF. Horizon is the mystery here - did they perhaps sell to Mazroui? What's their end goal?
Also, maybe they are not after a squeeze out. What if its a vote for a merger with the rusted rigs of SF that they are after? Or perhaps, there is no sinister intention, and they are really out to fix the company and piling into a good risk reward. Interestingly Mazroui had bought in April or May when it was in 6-7p range.
For Castro to have bought in much higher up, when the sesv and o+G markets were much softer and and now to not take up the open offer when the company's immediate future is secured and the underlying market firmer is a bit of a connundrum.
Some of this heavy turnover will be the same share flipping across holders. I hope someone with a strategic eye and a long term view has picked up a blocking stake.£3m to control the fate of a $450m enterprise is a cheap option.
Thanks AA.
Yeah, looks like Mazrui picked it up in the market. And beats me how this doesn't amount to acting in concert....
@4C - yeah, it's 90% for a squeeze out.
Wow, so that's 55.59% between SF and Mazrui. How the two of them are not being classed as acting in concert during this whole situation is nuts.
Now to figure out the composition of the other 44.41%. I think we can safely assume Aberforth are indeed out of the picture entirely now. They went to 0% and there was speculation they used the proceeds to take up their share of the placing. If no TR1 by tomorrow then they must indeed be fully out. There is no TR1 in relation to Castro's exit - so they must still be here.
wow, interesting. lots of games.
Mazrui's participation in the fundraise was to take up their entitlement, keeping their shareholding at 13.33%.
This TR1 suggests they've just bought another 12% of the enlarged share capital in the open market.
So mazrui is one of the "institutional" investor
If Castro and Horizon are still there with their combined 5%, I am sure we can find another 5% who won't sell for 5 or 6p.
pretty sure they'd get to 90% udner 6p if the SP rises quick. Many might bail for a 50% in a week or so.
sounds plausable. And, having loaded at 3pm, quite frankly, I would be pleased for 5-6p in a few months.
@AA2020 - is 90% the minimum requirement for squeezeout?
As of now, SF&CO + placement institutional investors = 74% of the company. Hence non-SF ownership is AT BEST 26% or 270m shares.
However, 9 June to 25 June traded 250m shares, which is 70% of the tradeable shares during that period (about 350m) and 25% of current outstanding. I would think whoever bought during those period already owns a large part of the non-SF shares – but not sure if the 90% is already achieved. Because….
74m shares were taken by existing non-SF shareholders – so that is 7% of the current outstanding. Assuming they sold their existing shares, I think we can reasonably say that there are still 3% holders who are non-SF.
Also, Castro was one of the biggest holders – if they haven’t already sold out, they would be diluted to about 3.4%. Another investor is Horizon, who voted with SF to kick out the last board – they owned 6% pre capital raising, and will own 2% post the raise. So those two are combined 5%. Horizon’s intentions were not clear – they were aligned with SF, but they haven’t participated in the capital raise, and I am not sure why they would vote with SF to accept a lowball bid. My view is that a bid is unlikely, unless they already have a grip on over 90% of the shares, which seems unlikely at the moment.
Happy with the volumes these days though - they are sizeable
I also think that will probably be what happens - but would it be enough to get to the 90% level to force a squeeze out ? That I’m more sceptical of.
What I think will happen in the not too distant future is that SF will make a bid for all of the outstanding shares. They are now past the point where they were required to pay 22p or 11p in the new post shafting world, so they can and almost certainly will bid a much lower price. All those institutional investors who got in at 3p would probably be happy with a quick 100% profit and sell at 6p. My guess is that we will see an offer price between 5p and 6p and that the BoD will rubber stamp it and SF get all of the goodies for very little - in the olden days this was called piracy.
Is there a time frame? Many have been waiting for the special thing since a year atleast
something special might happen here
I was watching for the past 3 years and have bought occassionally and then after the debt agreement as i could see trading improving. I applied for max over allotment.
My understanding of the issues to watch as far as I am aware are that we need to be well clear of the 10% which would allow a forceout in a bid situation. The more pertinent issue is the level of seafox friends who would not be not deemed connected parties, as they will be able to bugger things up for us if they use a scheme of arrangement.
Any corrections/additions to this view are welcome.
Any other
The total take up from existing shareholders was 74m shares (out of total possible of 371m shares)
i am the only one that took up my portion and subscribed for more and bought more at 2.95.
GLA.