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FH1, on the contrary, fundamentally I’m very bullish on GKP. I still think its fair value should be around 300p. I know, some of you think that is a “bearish” view. From my POV it’s nearly another +100% and that is great potential. The bit where I’m getting increasingly more pessimistic is:
(1) KRG. Can they ever get their act together? As long as any investor has to keep fearing on a monthly basis whether GKP gets paid or not is incredibly damaging to sentiment and will increase the risk premium put on the share and hence depress the share price.
(2) Management. I’m not sure they can deliver shareholder value. A large part of the problem is not their fault. They have zero power over the KRG. Communication hasn’t been great. Mostly it’s crickets. There has to be a strong statement delivering a capital return via buyback and/or dividends. Any business that can pay out a cashflow yield >10% will find investors. Growing the business is less attractive in IMHO. Spending capex without any certainty that you get paid? Why bother ...
FH1, I have not given anyone any advice, I have outlined how I intend to react in certain circumstances - those actions are based on the trades that make up my position in this share and how in general I manage the money I have invested.
If facing up to an intellectual challenge is beating myself up then I would fail any concussion protocol - I have been doing it for so long. The madness would only follow if I stopped the critical thinking and watched daytime TV.
PUTUP what narrow mind are you referring to. You only post negative stuff about GKP. Is there not a single positive thing you can think of? I post negative stuff for balance but I can see both sides. I would run a mile if only saw negatives. You must be a glutton for punishment to beat yourself up every time you post. You really should leave GKP BB for your own mental well being.
That’s great Theory thanks for the reminder. It’s clear to you that GKP is not a good investment. That’s understood. So surely you have followed your own advise and sold up? Now don’t you think it’s strange that you would now endlessly post to say that this is a hopeless share. Why keep beating yourself up everyday? There are 100s of other stocks you could buy. Load of great ones. Don’t drive yourself nuts over GKP.
Kaaran you’ve persuaded yourself that GKP is a duffer. That’s fine. But why do you have to tell everyone everyday. Why not just sell up and get another stock and chat on their board. Why do you bother? Trust me I don’t need the charity advise.
FH1, interesting that it was BroadfordBay & PUTUP who pointed out the errors in principle wrt Arma’s calculation of profit generation.
Five others gave him a Recommend, which probably reinforced his view that he was correct - did they share his misunderstanding of the most basic component of the contract in operation?
Why did no “positive poster” point out that he was using the total production for the field rather than GKP’s share?
Further balance could have been added by pointing out that the $35 break even he was using only applied to the special conditions that applied at the time it was published. At that stage the company was curled up in a ball in protective mode, now it has moved into expansion.
Maybe even suggesting he use just 42kbopd since that is the mid range value for the Company’s guidance.
Then why assume that 365 days production would lead to 12 monthly payments, in the last two calendar years it has only averaged 11 per year? So probably prudent to multiply by 11/12.
Then of course the important reminder that the profit is far more than is being generated by the Profit Oil, OK for the time range being used but not to be extrapolated beyond that.
FH1, seems that you only value opinions confirming your own bullish view. Fair enough. That's called confirmation bias. Not a trait of good investors/traders. BBs that offer balanced opinions are of most value.
As a result of yesterday’s price action I have gone from 50% overweight to 25% overweight and will reduce further to standard size if it drops through support at 171p. Total exit will take place if that much lower support that avoided the overlap fails to hold.
I was focussed on 199p and above as first target, now it has become 188p.
As far as my Daily chart is concerned, yesterday had four warning signals - horrible!
“Value trap” - that won’t be a popular descriptor but seems to be a fair representation of the situation at the moment.
FH1, yeah bounce looks impressive when compared to the point of near collapse. But I don’t any of us got in at March 2020 lows. So big deal.
In any case, we can discuss the merits of the company until the cows come home. Unfortunately it’s turning into a value trap. Nobody would reasonably dispute the value opportunity presented by GKP, but at the same time there are no investors willing to be the marginal buyer bidding up shares to, say, 200p and beyond. Oil price is not the issue anymore, but the regional issues of the KRG are. I’m giving up hope that Iraq and KRG will ever sort out their issues. Payment track record is a big problem and hence no marginal buyer is emerging.
Lol, what are the positive points one could post these days? Brent POO has been playing fairly nice but unfortunately the company is stuck with one exceptionally bad client. And the stock price does, well, what it does today ...
Nobull it would be fine if BB posted a balanced range of comments. But he never does. So it’s suspicious why someone posts only negative stuff about a company. What is your view as to why someone would do that?
Bucephalus1, a lot of opinion there without any examples of what you are complaining about. Broadford Bay recently made a fair point about production risk (whether pipeline capacity was adequate for our company's near future planned production capacity). I don't know if it is. But it is a subject we should be asking our CEO about at the AGM, I wonder?
Just labelling someone a fraudster like that maybe says more about you: you don't want other investors to understand properly the risks our company has inherent in its business model, I wonder? I am not clever enough to know how these risks will play out, but they are there.
For balance regarding his opinions, it's important to note that he doesn't own shares in this company, only comments on this company and it's never positive....A disingenuous poster with ulterior motives...