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I had a good night's sleep without dreaming of GGP. I was hoping
that shorts might close their trades at the end of the day and was wrong again.
I have no clue and whatever I do and whatever I buy goes up or down.
It's never boring to be a cheerful clown. Good Luck !
@Broom, nice post, good thoughts.
I think we are so used to increases in the GGP share price being news-driven by sustainable news, that when a different kind of price increase came along, no one was prepared for it.
A few people looked at how GDXJ affected the SP of other companies and so were not necessarily shocked by what happened. But even most who did that probably got it wrong.
Of course, the correction was undoubtedly magnified by what happened in the market at large as well. Both shares and gold got hit. If that hadn't happened we might have ended up with not quite such a sharp correction.
Hope we all learn lessons.
@Dodge, @TakingMyTime
Looking back at the various predictions for the sp on 24/9, could the excessive optimism shown by the participants be down to the fact that (we) investors in GGP are a bit guilty of tunnel vision? My own thoughts were certainly around the mid 20's, so I got it wrong as well.
Rightly, we focus on fundamentals and the rich schedule of news due but during the time when the sp was increasing daily, most of us (and I include myself) perhaps allowed our dreams to cloud our judgement to a degree despite us all professing to know better. In reality, we should all have seen a fairly significant correction coming.
Profits are always taken. After all thats how the professionals work. And some real price volatility really suits them perfectly.
Sure lth's will be safe enough in the end but our investee Co has attracted the attention of some big boys, so we should expect things to be bumpy for some time especially given AIM's loose governance.
I think this will continue until substantive news/facts point us all to the next level.
Brilliant SAS, classic..
Good point about no tweet, Dodge. Hadn't thought of that, am sure you are right.
GH used to love a good tweet, so it speaks volumes that nothing was seen from the man. When you consider that his much stated ambition for GGP, is to turn it into a £1b company, the radio silence was deafening. He knew it was too early, knew the fundamentals didn't add up and knew it was unsustainable.
Smart cookie, our Gervaise.
You asked for it Dodge, This is what I think happened when GH & CB woke for breakfast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t75jW263CTw
sAS
@Dodge
I thought I was conservative, too, at 22.6, and I was wrong, too. I said that thread was just for fun when I started it but I found it very instructive about investor psychology, don't you think?
I agree, I don't think the 27p will be our all-time high by the end of the year. But it will be driven by things that actually affect the value of the company. Things like GDXJ can help us get the share price to better reflect company value, and I think that it has helped, but what a ride! Yes, I'd have loved to see the GH/CB response -- but I suspect they knew GDXJ often triggers this kind of stuff.
We're at 20p, though! With all that's happened, Mrs TMT still has her first full-bagger ever! Six weeks ago we'd have called someone who predicted 20p before the end of September a ramper!
Have a great weekend!
It's a victory for a few of us holders here at under 1p.
Makes a change that the private investor has beaten the big boys to the prize and they dont like it one bit !!!!
Let the market play their games that's what they're paid to do anyway.
It's been a mad week and more market shenanigans next week for sure.
Good weekend all.
@TakingMyTime
A cursory glance at the "sp at 24/09" predictions says it all really. Very few marked us down, and nobody anticipated the drop to mid-17's. I thought I was being conservative at 27.2 (LOL).
It's all about volume on AIM, and it's been insane this week. The "big drop day" this week saw more intraday volume than the "GDXJ day" last week. I'm pretty sure that day smashed all records for turnover. Every LTH remembers the billion traded day, but in terms of pound notes, that pales into insignificance to the trades of the last few days.
IMHO I think we're very well positioned to move, in an orderly fashion, to new highs over the coming weeks. But, more importantly than a MM driven high, a sustainable high, based on fundamentals & RNS announcements.
I would love to have been a fly on the wall when GH & CB woke up to see the £1b mcap. God only knows how that conversation went..
Answers on a postcard...
Dodge and TMT
Good analysis of the mayhem over last week .
Agree entirely with respect to the lifetime opportunity coming here.
Sticking to fundamentals with patience is the key, as is the jump from 13p to 20p and so will be the progress from here - Here is to the next week
IMO Cheers
agreed FOMO kicking in for next week
@Dodge
Great post describing what happened. As for this: "He was right, he probably didn't want to be right,"
I absolutely did not want to be right, and I did not profit from it. I didn't know it would happen. All I did was say it might happen. If I'd known, I'd have sold a bunch of shares at 25 and loaded up at 20. Too bad.
No complaints, though. I knew we'd have a surge, and loaded up at 13p in late August. We had the surge. It was bumpy to get here but if you'd told me a month ago that my 13p was going to turn into 20p, I'd have said, "That's brilliant." Too bad it isn't 30p. But I put a lot of money (for me) in at 13p a month ago, and my wife thinks I'm a genius (which has benefits besides financial, LOL).
Stay calm, everyone. There's a lot more upside than 20p to come, I'm sure of it. The MRE is still coming. More drilling at depth. Decline starts in less than six months, probably. GDXJ buys more shares in December -- likely more orderly this time. Maybe Scally or something else hits big and this once in a decade share becomes once in a lifetime. I consider that a strong possibility.
Hi Dodge, I agree. Your post probably expressed with greater clarity, what my own thoughts are. I topped up again this morning at 20.24, and had been hoping to get in at less than 20, but feel in the great scheme of things it will not in the fullness of time make a difference
Well dodge, exactly what I had been saying prior to GDXJ.
I should have taken advantage of my views. Live and learn.
So, back where we were.
Thrilling rode in the mean time.
Now let's look forward now that stability is back.
MS
Brilliant post dodgemeister.
Thankyou for that, it helps me to make some sense of what's happened. We live and we learn
Dodgemeister
What a fantastically written summary. You summed up my feelings and the general sentiment extremely accurately.
Fancy writing that Novel everyone keeps mentioning!? :)
Dodge Human instinct for the majority will be to defend and justify their position or not as the case may be, very natural but expect the ones who take their investment decision seriously will factor in any levels of risk and not just reward
If you all stop the clock now today and looked ahead and had a risk factoring of 1 to 10 ie 1 being 0 risk to 10 being High Risk where do you place GGP investment currently? and suggest not for on this BB but example you come up with 3 ask yourself and research why. keep with a strategy, manage risk, secure where the plan was to Keep to the plan and dismiss anything other than hard and factual data. Short Term Volatile this is a delicious cake and some want a piece of it, Medium to Longer Term you will have the Cherry on top
A good summing up in my opinion. Another voice of reason worth actually listening to.
What a great post Dodgemeister, one of the best I've read on here and there have been many good ones from Paddy et al.
GLA
Some kind of order seems to have been restored to the board today. After a week of miserable, agenda-driven postings by a plague of nay-saying, doom mongering idiots, we seem to have stabilised at a level we were trading at pre-GDXJ.
Make no mistake about it, we have seen a coordinated attack on our shareholding this week, and the rise to 27p last week was a strategic element of that plan. We were walked up from 19.9p (COB 11/11) to 27p (COB 18/11) and an eye-watering mcap of £1b. ONE BILLION POUNDS. Even our most ardent uber-fans would have difficulty in justifying that mcap. It was way overcooked and never sustainable at this juncture in our development. Don't get me wrong....I believe that we will become a £1/2/3b company, but that is in the future - not now.
So, at that level, the sells were inevitable. The age old mantra of PI's selling into the rise was never truer. So, investors sold...and sold, and sold. Then, guess what? The buyers at 20-25p levels get spooked and sell to cut losses. Stop losses get taken out at every level. Panic sets in, and even LTH's sell out. A self-perpetuating retrace was set in motion by the market which spiralled down to the mid-17p level, which wiped 35% off the mcap. An mcap which was entirely MM driven, down to a level LOWER to where "normal" market forces had driven us to on 11/11.
We now seem to have settled to a sustainable SP, supported by stickier long term investors, at an mcap fully justified by the fundamentals.
Personally, I still have exactly the same amount of shares that I had prior to this attack, and they're worth exactly what they were worth before this attack.
In the meantime, our friends in the City of London, having rinsed many millions of pounds from regular PI's, will be chuckling into their flutes of Bolly, whilst planning the next one.
The thing is, and I'm as guilty as the next man, we ALL get caught in the headlights. We all seek the bias confirmation posters who support the position we've taken. We seek out the posts that defend and justify the rise. Many "seasoned" GGP LTH's did the same. TmT took a more restrained view on what was happening and articulated caution. I chose to ignore him and listened to the guy who confirmed 30p. Many shouted TmT down, including me and guess what? He was right, he probably didn't want to be right, but he was....and fair play to him.
So, 20p is where we're at, and we start from a firm base into the next news. A great position to be in for anyone looking further than their nose. It's just a crying shame, that in the meantime, a considerable amount of wealth has been transferred from Regular Joe, to Virginia Waters.