Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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TMT let's hope that GH has just an ordinary day to day sneeze and not one of the infected sneezes !
GLA
Thank you Rational, perfectly stated. Every option has a positive outcome.
Looking forward to the quarterly results 23 July on Oz time (about 11:30pm in UK & Ireland on 22 July)
RA, really nice discussion of some of the possibilities out there.
It's possible that at the completion of phase 4 it will still not be possible to have any kind of realistic estimate of just how much gold and copper there is. What then? How do you value the 5% then? Was the agreement written with that in mind? So many unknowns.
I agree, I've never seen a share like this. Takeover speculation, yes, speculation about world events / POG, yes. Seen that lots of times. But this one is in a class by itself. The collective knowledge on this board about this company is far beyond what even the best institutional investors are likely to assemble. If GH were to sneeze, someone would pick it up on a seismograph reading, report it here, and we'd have 15 posts debating whether it were a cold or pollen allergies, with the force of the sneeze cited as evidence, LOL. But a lot of things discussed here really are relevant, or potentially relevant. It's very interesting sociologically as well as, of course, financially.
TMT - I agree that it is really hard at this point to determine what will happen to Havieron once NCM complete phase 4. At that point, an MRE will have been produced along with a feasibility study. (Although NCM already appear to be convinced with feasibility and seem to be struggling to identify where to start decline because they don't know the full extent of deposit)
On completion of Phase 4, NCM will be entitled to purchase a further 5% of Havieron at a "Fair Market Value". I'm guessing that NCM and GG will come to an agreement on FMV or will need to take this assessment to a third party. Whichever way FMV is determined, GG is obliged to sell to NCM 5% of Havieron bringing NCM ownership to 75%. Decision then is what to do with the remaining 25%?
Does GH argue that the remaining 25% is of greater value to NCM (per %) because that would give NCM full control and if so, does he decide to cash it all in or only cash in part and wait for the funding stream for the GG owned element starting 2-3 years down the line - either way the differential value(between selling all and retaining 25%) on GG books and impact to SP should be minimal as the value is either cash in hand or promise of cash in the future.
To make a smart decision, GH will need to look through the FMV and consider their assessments for AISC, MRE, Price of Gold into the future, Quality of the gold to be mined, depreciation used and the life of the mine. If he feels that the FMV is conservative, he will be minded to retain as much of the 25% as possible as that would be in the interest of GG and the shareholders, if he feels it's a good deal, he will be minded to sell all of Havieron and move on to other targets.
He will also need to consider what he might do with any cash (if he sells). Does he use it to start more detailed exploration in the other GG tenements and (independently) improve their value or does he distribute the cash to shareholders as a special dividend? Or a mix? In my mind, it is unlikely that the cash received for 5% will enable him to explore other tenements fully and also give a special divvy?
So many questions and variables, some of which will be answered over the coming months. Some will not be known for years - at some point, GH will need to make a decision/leap of faith based on his expertise/knowledge/gut feel and his appetite for risk.
What is true is that this share is probably the most interesting/exciting I have owned - the debates over size of deposits, other opportunities, flights in and out of a remote airfield, price of gold, poring over satellite pictures, geology, impacts of a worldwide pandemic, high level business decision making, JV Relationships and the ever-present threat of "News" - if it weren't for the debate over the colour of blankets in miners' accommodation, it could be straight from a 007 script.
ATB, looking forward to the next piece of news,
RA
Red, the money they get from the 5% will cover mining costs till it’s producing, plus we have enough cash just now to do other drilling !
@redleader "I feel this is the exact reason Hav will go to NC 100%."
It all depends on what they offer and if GH thinks it is good value. If he's not persuaded it is good enough for what's down there, he'll borrow the money he needs, he's made that pretty clear.
Of course, this is not a "one thing or the other." By the time this is mined we could own anywhere from 0-25% of it. We're going to own 30%, but NCM has the right to buy 5% more and almost certainly will. Maybe GH sells them another 10%, taking us down to 15%, which should give us plenty of money to pay our share of the mining costs, with plenty left over to do all the drilling you mentioned and more.
So, maybe NCM will own 100% but there's so many possibilities out there it's really hard to say what will happen.
It really is a fun time to own these shares.
Hi,Re your 2nd reason: 2) we can't because we are conserving funds that we will need for Hav. I feel this is the exact reason Hav will go to NC 100%. and with the funds and H/Clearence to drill scalley until is looks like a tea bag. Im sure NC will be waiting in the wings. Thanks for all your posts GLA