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For the week just ended, GKP are top of the pack and G are bottom:
https://invst.ly/uw8r4
The damage to G mostly happening on Wednesday when it fell below the near 6month trend and 150 support to close at 144:
https://invst.ly/uw8tt
O/T: CWR is tricky, bunks. The similar (but different cell technology) Canadian company, Ballard, has been much more volatile and poor full year results there seem to have dragged CWR down recently. Comparing the two suggests CWR is at the bottom now - but it is a speculative thing: it's not making any money yet. https://invst.ly/uuj4f . It's sticking below £10 rather too long for my liking.
Cwr always gets my attention when it's below 1000, I also see hasiba quite active over there.... Interesting (&OT) GL
Cheers bunks - let's hope the gap at 170 gets filled soon. Something to look forward to:
https://invst.ly/uua8d
Don't mind me with your dead horse flogging and Mafioso comparisons, perfectly normal reaction to what was a very challenging week across the board.
Personally, I am convinced they should sell the gas to the Russian but ... ..
Frankly, if they sold the whole shebang and divided up the proceeds to us shareholders I'd probably be happy.
Some of us were here at £10... the KRI has seen this company stripped...OK, 50% was due to Wayward management spending cash on dusters when they should have exercised some discipline and made sure of cash flows and oil reserves. But even so:
When the choice is flogging a dead horse or working for the mafia (which grabs anything it wants and does not abide by payment terms that it has imposed itself) then there's not much point in continuing. (Apologies to bunks).
Yes this is making capex strategy very difficult. On the one hand they really need to increase the production but not if you are not getting paid for it ....
Personally, I am convinced they should sell the gas to the Russian but ... either it is not an option for the board (I suspect a lot of big shareholders would be against it) or nobody is interested ... given the payment track record of the KRG it might well be the latter ...
Yes indeed Tartine.
For me the next payment breakdown will be key to evaluating the real impact of the latest banana skin from the banana republic. G had recently said that KRG owed them $36m for March production but their 'proposal', which is actually a 'fait accompli' issued at the last moment instead of making payment, reduces the receivables recovery portion by 60%. I'm guessing that this could knock around $4m off the expected figure. But until we see the numbers we really don't know. It is sobering to think that 45% of the last KRG payment was effectively repayment of debt whilst production only accounted for 55%.
Well for what it is worth I bought back today ... I am now fully loaded with Genel shares ... the most I have ever held actually. The difference in share price is definitely making up for the dividend not collected.
Going forward ... I don't know what to think ... the KRG is really making this difficult to judge. If we are realistic, it does not look likely that Genel will be allowed to be "really" successful in Kurdistan but it still remains a cash building machine even with the current hiatus ....
Managing the investment allocations will be crucial and diversifying should still be a priority.
All the best to all involved ...
For week ending Friday 14/5/21
OK, so G was down the best part of 15% on the week, big oil were virtually flat and GKP down 9% so it seems fair to say that ex-div took G down 4% (proportionate) and the KRG took G and the noisy neighbours down nearly 10%. Here are the usual group since last Friday:
https://invst.ly/utapp
It was a ‘normal’ week for KRI based oil co’s and a useful reminder of how little control G actually has over its destiny: a factor to remember when gauging the sp and find yourself about to suggest that it is ‘cheap’. For when the tribal elites of the KRG see any corporate pot building up nicely it’s effectively like fruit ready to pick, either directly or possibly via something more under the table. What a pity that Greensill weren’t involved in factoring the KRG’s payments back in 2019.
For week ending Friday 7/5/21
So here’s the week that just was: four days for the UK and five for the other runners and riders:
https://invst.ly/uq123
G was doing well by Wednesday but Thursday’s AGM statement seems to have added a much needed boost.
For week ending 30th April 2021....
So here are the usual runners and riders for last week:
https://invst.ly/unmmg
I find myself wondering if I really care, such is the state of the UK oil industry from an investor perspective: those who did not sell as the COVID pandemic hit markets will doubtless still be under water. For those that did then there have been profits to make. But the sector remains well behind the market. So let’s do a reality check:
https://invst.ly/untfg From this:
G is about 15% down on pre-covid (and pre-KRG payment) issues.
G has done about twice as well as BP since Feb 2020 - BP is 37% down, G 15%
G and BP have not matched the recovery in OP - which has, even at the most negative assessment, fully recovered - albeit based on supply control by OPEC+ rather than demand. The main factor here being that US shale hasn’t rushed in to undercut.
If you want to see my ‘gold standard’ for oil, Chevron. then it’s here - but save yourself the trouble, it’s currently matching the FTSE100 since Feb last year: https://invst.ly/untg1
Superficially, G has done well compared to these but we all know that G should track Brent more closely and Covid isn't what is stopping G from making 3x Brent today.
Have to say Boyo that I like your well thought out posts but you consistently refuse to draw the Genl dividend into your chat,charts or general conversation.At todays price we have a divi yield of around 6.75%,not been cut by two thirds like RDSB or half like BP.l.By the way Genelians hashiba surfaced today on the HUR posts,his usual bombastic self but I am so glad that I dodged that bullet and utilised the funds that I was considering planting in HUR at over 50 at the time into this much unloved Kurdistan driller
23rd April:
G bottom of the Friday pack again unfortunately. Another poor week for Oil Co’s despite Brent remaining near the middle of the $60-$70 range. OPEC+ seem to be achieving relative stability whatever the pundits say. Because G is pure production - no refining, retail etc. the sp should come down to simple OP, production levels, value of reserves…. and cash flow. Revenues may not reach 2019 levels but they’ll be a darn sight better than 2020 for sure. So 160 at the close is disappointing but at least it seems to be finding support. https://invst.ly/ukhma
So G ended the week at the bottom of the usual group and virtually ‘flat’ over the week:
https://invst.ly/uhyx1
Whilst the likes of Chevron and RDS didn’t fair much better, it’s very disappointing for G given that Brent rose by nearly 6% through the week, with half of the rise due to US inventory numbers from the EIA on Wednesday. G’s revenue is so tightly linked to OP that you’d expect better. Indeed there are only three things that really drive the sp these days: OP, level of production and consistency of payments. There is no escaping the conclusion that G is progressively slipping as the sp to OP ratio has only reached 3x on two days so far this year, had lost its grip around 2.8x and is now languishing at 2.5x . It’s worse now than during last summer.
Here’s a chart of G v 3xBrent since October 2019, G is ‘doing good’ when it’s above the green Brent line - which we haven’t seen much of since August last year: https://invst.ly/uhz23
OK - another week week with frankly not much going on. Is the KRG cheque for Feb production in the post? Am I too fixated on payments? I don't think so - what sort of company might G have been today if there'd never been a missed payment and Taq Taq had been the only disaster?
So here are the usual runners and riders with G top of the KRI bunch and ahead of the US majors:
https://invst.ly/uf3ip
But, slipping below 170 in the last hour or so, brings the week to a rather sticky end with 165 now on the cards:
https://invst.ly/uf3pv
Surely things can't get as bad as last summer - when G managed more that 165 for less than two whole days?
Just for completeness, here are the usual bunch for this week - the line for DNO is missing due to a data glitch but the marker puts it in about the right finishing place overall. G did come out bottom again (second week in a row) :
https://invst.ly/ucavy