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Yes Hydro - we're not entirely negative. A bit jaded perhaps (speaking for myself obvs).
Looking for calm professionalism and solid guidance in the H1 results tomorrow.
agreed - there was a brief visit to $68 in July but it was fleeting, lets hope 72.3 (depending on what o.p you're looking at, I'm using Oct 21 -BV1) around 17:00 was it and we're back up and away (as if it were that simple eh).
Yeah bunks - Brent dropped a bit more this afternoon but, to quote myself on the RDS board earlier:
‘As one bullish pundit put it recently: Brent recently tends to take a fast elevator down and then climbs the stairs back up, with the elevator progressively stopping at higher floors.’
The interesting thing is not that it drops - it is a volatile commodity after all - but which floor does it stop at? https://invst.ly/vm7lz
Anything above $70 isn’t worth breaking a sweat over, the long and medium-term trends are still upwards...
UT was 142.2p for the avoidance of doubt
Stuck the ole Bunks neck out there didn't I - I should have said there is likely to be a bit more balance by the close, turns out they moved closer to us ..... DNO had a decent day but the market closed earlier in Norway so they didn't catch the ongoing weakness in O.P.
GL tomorrow folks
it only matters where we close, we should be up with the others by the close.
Well H, TBF, I did present some evidence and say that the interpretation depended on one's pov. You've been more bullish than me recently and I hope you're eventually proved correct. Personally, I'll be hovering near the exit until this gets back over 160 and there's evidence of confidence returning. All the usual suspects are up today except G, trailing the pack yet again-https://invst.ly/vm5-5
Yes indeed bunks. I’ll admit to becoming increasingly gloomy despite the fact that G’s last monthly receipt fell in line with what should be expected.
Since the end of March, marked in this chart of G v Brent : https://invst.ly/vm28n , the profound divergence between G and Brent has become a great concern to me. It does point to a market re-evaluation of G . Whilst it’s true that most oil companies have levelled off since March - GKP is an example: https://invst.ly/vm2ep - G has seen a marked decline in value. Depending on your view, this either represents a temporary undervaluation or signals a rather more prolonged condition. The risk/reward balance here has become far less appetising for me.
Yep - I'll take a solid update with no surprises, bit of confidence so we can re-establish a fair correlation to o.p ---- I don't think my heart can take any major fireworks...... but (there's that word again), we are way overdue a BSD....ssshhh
Cheers bunks. I try to do a seven day one (from Friday close to the next Friday close) so that the weekend OP and late Friday US moves (CVX and XOM) are included - although it’s not always perfect because of the way Investing.com handle the monthly Brent roll-over. Let's hope we have a better week coming up, however we measure it!
Boyo - Google seems to use 08:30 on the 26th July as the start of it's 5 Day view, in this case 137p to Fridays close of 143.8p.
Google has improved in terms of it's live and out of hours prices but still some inaccuracies seemingly, like most free sites imo (LSE still showing the wrong close of 142.2p)
Apologies for not checking the 5 day view was starting at last fridays close. GL
I’m scratching my head, bunks.
According to Investing.com, G finished the previous Friday on 139.6 and yesterday on 143.8, which it ‘correctly’ gave as 3.01% up over the week. Where did you get the +6.8p / 4.96% week’s rise from? https://invst.ly/vlkje . Was there a very late 137p UT on Friday 23rd that Investing.com missed?
For me it was a collapse: G failed to hold onto the key recovery level of 150 or the trend at 148. I know others also fell on the day but not by as much as G, which is already on its knees in comparison to peers - https://invst.ly/vllcg . It should be 180 minimum based on sector performance and nearer to 230 based on past average performance against Brent. After two months I think it should be showing at least some signs of recovery but it isn’t.
er UT was 143.8p -4.64% on the day but +4.96% on the week (+6.80).
Collapsing might be a bit extreme, if I'm not mistaken we recovered 1.5% in the closing auction.
I'm putting it down to low volume scare tactics ahead of next weeks H1 results.
Would have been very nice to end the week positively but I do remember that positive close prior to the Taq Taq CPR nightmare. Must admit to being a tad nervous about our planned market updates, they do have a tendency to drop out negative news just before as alluded to above with TT. Certainly don't want to be below that mid 130's level, obviously.
Elcapitan / Astle - make sure you buff that RNS up next week, my expectations aren't high so easily exceeded.
GLA
The last day of trading in the Brent September contract, which rose to $76.3 during the day. It rolls over to October’s contract by Monday- about a $1 lower at the moment. G, meanwhile, collapsing back this afternoon even harder than the market - not particularly logical - it always leaves the suspicion that there’s some factor we are unaware of. However, it was quite bizarre that G outshone RDS yesterday and today saw the correction. DNO and GKP are bottom of the pile this week.
Here are the usual riders: https://invst.ly/vlfh0
And here are the daily ticks for G over the last couple of months (the period after it took a 30p kicking in May): https://invst.ly/vlfht Looking at today’s close, I reckon it’s still around 30p down compared to, say, Chevron and about 20p down relative to GKP - a very subjective comment but, essentially, I don't think it has made any real recovery since the RNS announcing the KRG ‘adjustment’ to the receivables recovery rate, which coincided neatly with ex-div day to amplify the natural drop in sp.