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yes possibly I am more of a quick correction ever so difficult to predict. Also another possibility is a simple readjustment....I see in the last month Nasdaq down and S&P high and DWN even higher....Stay home stocks drifting lower and that cash going into cyclical and commodities stocks, most making an all time higher.
If wasn't because I don't believe in conspiracy theories, I would say that financial institutions got together to inflate commodity futures, so that consumers are forced to give back the cash they have saved during pandemic. Note there has never been so much personal saving as during pandemic, lots of folk received cheques for governments without been able to spend the cash, lock down and restrictions...Now they want the money back.....
It’s the free money from government over this last year or two. It supports wealthy people to gain more wealth which they’ll neatly take off the table, not Jeff sold $2.5 billion dollars Amazon shares last week.
The free money is affordable at cheap rates, there is no bubble if you say it’s post covid correction but as soon as rates rose and liquidity is removed the sense is the bubble bursts. There is a fundamental shortage of commodities, investing based on what’s needed is still very sound like iron ore, just whether you believe there is a correction first and hence fxpo is a great investment but at what price?
I also bought silver based on its industrial input increasing
I am looking at commodities prices today and everything is going up, orange juice 8%, cheese 8%, rubber 10%, tea 5%, etc etc...This is not normal and surely not dictated by market forces, imo. I am correct to think that there is a speculation going on on commodities where lost of free money from the Fed are converging on traded commodities long bets?
David Hunter - I think the one week pullback that caused so much consternation is likely over. Watch the semis & FAANG stocks regain their leadership & momentum now that so many have turned negative on them.SMH to $300 & probably a bit higher.Nasdaq to 17,000 & probably higher.Parabolic melt-up started, expect a fast increase
Dow has another two or three thousand to go before all time high cemented. Then we travel back in time!!!
NelsontheDog thank you I too love reading all posts on this board. This tread about DOW Jones is better to finish sooner or I risk to look a fool...yesterday new high for DOW...
Your fortunate to have the two buffets on the fxpo board to give out their pearls of wisdom while the market does a spin!! Lol. I made more money as many did last year and truth is I’m not one for loosing it in any circumstance so I’ll happily take it off the table for sometime.
My silver arrives end of month, not sure yet where to put it but I have told the wife so she’s aware it’s coming.
The market is going to shake a bit, clear dates on my remaining investment coming out, mid may, end of may so can we last and get all time highs by then? Gla.
To note, my not be specific to fxpo at this time but I’m a long term fan and definitely will invest at some point again
Lucky and unvrkw,
I have really enjoyed your posts here for a long time - sometimes as nightwatchmen in the quieter times and I still do. I have to inform you that in my study, we (the lucky cat and I) have started calling the Fxpo board the game of thrones board. Winter is coming….
NtD
some say cash is the most risky asset.
Guaranteed to go down over time thanks to inflation in our debt based world
timing is impossible as you say bar for the few that are actually the market, the top 1% that continue to increase the margin of gain.
capitalism is ok when everyone gains, when the gap between rich and poor widens too far then there is a reaction eventually as the poor cant keep up. as businesses open people take money from equities to fund housing, businesses etc. i think there will be a correction of course easy to say but no idea exactly when. positive on the markets today, commodity led. my next fund move into cash is the 18th may, then 28th may unless it gets too shakey before hand
...meanwhile dollar index making higher lows and bond rate keeping up.
unvrkw agree with you in most points but the timing......trust me if one was able to judge right when out and when in would be not human...is impossible at any time even more theses days imo.
On the Fed and inflation theories goes that rising interest would control inflation but in my opinion this goes against the concept of free market and in theses days of globalization is even more relevant. I am not sure if the Fed is aware of this or not, i think they are all playing games up there in the high offices they are in bed with the rich from the financial world for a win win situation. What is left is us commune mortals trying to manage news flow, and read signals for what we know best. In the end is a loosing battle...what I mean is that to make a return in these days market one has to take much more risks for a lower return, beside inflation. The late excuse for index retrace is Yellen mentioning the word tapering rated.....ooohhhhh sorry she meant to say tapering bond buying from the Fed, and it all get even more confusing. They (the Supremes) have all figured out. Yes stock market will keep rising, but how and when they like it. The rebound from pandemic low is not there anymore and this is an understatement...I try to leave out all the noise good and bad on inflation, covid, reopening, rates etc...look at the market of recent and wow.....how can be that we are more than 30% past pre covid high in the last few months, are people really going to buy the distorted good news coming from macros?
others and myself have a thinking that the market has new highs to meet as all the figures coming out are stella in comparison certainly to last year.
will this then lead to inflation out of control, needs rates to control, (will control?) which then leads to the usa etc having to acknowledge more the huge debt and pumping of cash they have put into the system.
yesterday this was clear when the idea of an interest rate increase was even muted by one person, stocks dropped but recovered when further points given
i'm moved into cash, will do this more over the next few weeks, more upside followed by big downside in the months to come, i'm happy likewise to step away and conserve the cash as missing the last 5 % up doesn't really bother me.
back into fxpo this time next year after the re-set
Today is typical trading day of late.....I am suspicious of future indexes moving high if they are not supported by the cash market...Commodities miners wanting to go higher but sold of at highs or by US index retracing. As thing stand on average 1% move up from index equal 1% move up from miners (mind you today BHP and RIO ) are making a decent move up....in between this index/miners equation we got commodities prices also at all time high, which imo even if I believe a long term bull run, short term represent more a risk to retrace even if little...
All great comments guys is good to exchange some point of view, without someone coming up with the paranoia of ramping or de-ramping. We all know how good Fxpo is no matter if someone is in or out at anyone time. Good point from NelsontheDog about Russia and Putin election shenanigans I had the same feelings. Finger crossed.....I am 100% cash. Have pondered carefully my approach to investing and compared it with 2020 market, when everything was going up and one just had to chose which was going up faster. These days even if the main market is still going up is a different approach. I tend to be risk adverse by nature, possibly is the reason been 100% cash right now in stead of say 50%. In the last month even if investing in the best fundamentals sectors and diversifying in 6/8 stocks my portfolio has gone nowhere, so I though I may as well take the money of the table and wait...Apparently we are in a period of investment gyration or rotation, where this massive money flow is switching from one sector to another. So if one is good at switching cash from secular sectors to stay home sectors to reopening economy sector to renewable and then back to commodities etc etc .....for me is not going to happen. I was for moving some cash in the reopening economies but second wave and now Brasil and India spoiled the party. To go abroad even if allowed will be testing and retesting (£200) for green countries... if that happens. On commodities they remain my first choice even if at this high prices, one may start to wonder if a small correction is due or not....Overall I see and ear overbought everywhere with many stocks keeping retrace from recent height...not a momentum trading situation. I am looking around for catalysts that would push the market forward and see none. Reopening if properly reopening happens could be killed by inflation, Biden spending on infrastructures... yes sure but the cash is now 2/3 months away for congress approval, it may not be the initial amount and they are already talking that the benefits will be felt in the economies years from now. All the many fantastic macroeconomic indicators out these days are from such a low levels during pandemic, that can be interpreted as you whish. Possibly the market at best is not going anywhere for a while till pandemic is under control worldwide. If there is a sharp and quick correction I will reinvest but is likely that it will be a longer and slower correction....So many variables that anyone guess on the market is a good one right now, as I said is not the same like in 2020. Hence I am going to trade the news or any sharp correction, rather than seeing my investment exposed and going nowhere. If I miss the train never mind I will take the next.
Bobbyreg
“It’s getting difficult to value” - it really isn’t - we have solid production so the harder aspects to value are risk and ore price.
Ore price - if this dropped 50% we would still be at a pe lower than some competitors who don’t have Fxpo growth.
Risk - lots of it and this has over the last 10 years found many new ways to appear but I do feel it is generally on the up on this aspect with owner less in the fire and russia hopefully proven a point with elections looming.
Not a share I would put money in that I need in the next 5 years but other than that - all good with infrastructure spending set to soar for the remainder of this decade.
NtD
There was a sniff today that rate rises may be needed in the usa to curb inflation. This is the main aspect done are arguing and waiting for. The feb can’t raise rates or equities will suffer but inflation is sky high as trillions get pumped in.
I’m 40% ish in cash, 60% ish in equities and 1% silver!! I’m happy to see this through for sometime. A downside maybe 50% on equities so I think worth the wait. Correction and then off again.
that is the risk we take in this game.
If you look at youtube or even most mainstream media we have been about to crash since January and to be honest I did find myself starting to almost expect a drop.
However all my research shows that every crash has ended up eventually as a new high so as long as your time frame is not too short you should be ok even putting money at the top.
Funnily it seems that you gain less (in history) waiting for a drop and then buying all right at the bottom of each crash then if you had dripped money in each month.
5-10% drops happen most years at some point so a pull back is not too scary, we'll see what happens IMO there is just too much money around and lack of alternatives to making returns, for a 20% + crash but that doesn't mean it won't happen!
Not just yet, gold and silver up
I may be wrong but ready for a crush...