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WW-
Both appreciate and respect your opinions on FOG. My view is both short-term and long-term. FOG price reaction to positive news flow is abysmal. When I was an analyst living in Houston many years ago, if a company made an announcement like FOG did recently, I do not once seeing a company's share decline. In fact, many times they appreciated substantially. Currently, investors who know our situation, either are not adding to their positions (although I have been) or initiating new ones. There is one reason and it is not the overhang. As to the long run, holding on is my personal preference if we add real energy management and give POQ an honorary post, if he wishes to stay on and the new management agrees.
Newtofo: Thanks - that is a much better and well written response than what I offered. I for one would be following you out the door if management changed - Falcon is on a great track with an endgame in sight. POQ is just the guy we need at this stage of the game.
Poods - You and I are still on different pages. I don't watch the share price of this stock - about the only stock price I see is what's on the top of this page just because it's there. My focus is on the final sale. If it makes financial sense to hang around another year to participate in drilling another 2 - 3 wells to prove up resources or reserves then our CEO said he might be receptive to that. Otherwise, Falcon doesn't have the capital or company structure to participate in a drilling/development program of the Beetaloo field. This type of development is for the big boys and Falcon or some other small company doesn't have the ability to play that game. Furthermore, we are years away from any production income on this concession.
As far as SA IMO we are also years away from Falcon even repeating what they have done in Australia. Chevron (our exploration partner) and other majors have no appetite for the current corrupt government - SA is dead in the water until the country elects legitimate, dependable leaders - the current political environment is a disaster. POQ was the chair of a committee that represented Shell, Chevron, etc. to the government in an attempt to lower the government demands on ORI - the committee couldn't get anywhere and that was with the less corrupt and more legitimate government than that of today. The committee thought the elections would improve the situation but in fact things have gotten much worse - from what I understand no one trust the current regime to the point of spending huge amounts of money just to see assets appropriated by the government. From what I understand China and Russia have more leverage in SA than other countries. I'm really talking outside my area of knowledge regarding SA - I just don't see anything happening anytime soon but then that's just my opinion.
Newtofo,
Amazing post and brilliant response!
Poods, just a couple of thoughts on your post.
If POQ was moved up to the symbolic Chairman position and someone new brought in to run Falcon on a day to day basis, (building a new team as a full operating oil and gas company), -- then I would be selling out instantly as would many others I believe. That kind of wholesale change in management and change in overall plan would be taking Falcon right back to the failing days of Bruner, and the need to keep diluting the value of Falcon shares to keep meeting ever escalating infrastructure and production costs. This would be a clear indication that the current program has failed completely and time to sell. Thankfully, we have someone running Falcon now that doesn't listen to a thing you say, and is working on the best and brightest plan for all shareholders to get the highest value when the Beetaloo asset is sold.
As far as South Africa is concerned, POQ has been at the very forefront of industry executives working towards getting the Minister in charge of petroleum development to move forward with reasonable, not ridiculous, levels of government theft on the Karoo. POQ has made many trips to SA to meet with past Ministers and the current ones to get new legislation in place as well as negotiating towards a reasonable level of black participation that doesn't kill off all investment in shale gas completely. As a member of the international oil and gas executive team that is negotiating with one of the most corrupt and mismanaged governments possible, replacing POQ in that position at this point would set back Falcon's Karoo prospects significantly.
WW-
Just reading the encouraging news this morning and improved tone of chatters, while noticing the share has not done basically nothing. Had an idea that would probably aid our sick share price. Just suppose, the board of directors elevated POQ to chairman emeritus and brought in someone with exceptional industry talent to manage what seems an interesting asset in the making. Instead thinking about selling FOG sooner rather than later, take the position, if this asset is as good as some think, build a talented small team to build a company with its cash flow. Once the dust settles and while cash flow funds infield drilling, management can focus on the other asset we have basically given up on - SA. South Africa is undergoing, granted slowly, change in its becoming a player on the world stage. Look at the Russian and Chinese investments taking place there. Africa is asset rich and management poor. But it brighted students are being educated. I am involved tangentially in an project there and suggest FOG take the long view and work with others to improve the political situation to benefit its people. Well, talk is cheap, so maybe are FOG shares, but the suggested changed above is for those interested in building long-term value. Just my morning thoughts for my chat friends.
BO: Dr. Close and others have stated that Falcon's acreage sits in the fairway (sweetspot) of the Beetaloo. On top of that it is hopeful that this acreage sits on top of a very prolific Kyalla formation which is exclusive to our JV. Reading between the lines Falcon/Origin appear to be excited about what they have seen in the vertical well - we have yet to drill and frac the horizontal but it looks like we are off to a good start. This next 12 - 18 months could get very interesting.
Funny I believe at one time we owned 4 more of the leases around us. Also Empire says same depth we just drilled. Hope we got the sweet spot, after all!