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Thanks for the news. It would not be hard to make a great addition to this board. POODS
Poods, I am fairly sure that Viktor is hanging on to his shares for the bigger win coming in the next year or two -- as he has been extremely patient up to this point. I am also fairly sure that Viktor hardly even knows that he owns the largest block of Falcon -- as it doesn't make up a very large part of his net worth (without representing even a portion of one Faberge Egg as this point in time -- LOL).
Here is a website that shows all insider trades on the TSX -- where any insider moves must be declared within a few days of taking place. The only recent declaration was the 3 million share option granted to Joe Nally -- who is going to be great addition to the negotiating team going forward I believe.
i am going to start adding again. I will stop if I get to 10 million shares. I do wonder if Viktor might be a seller also? That would be discouraging unless he has other issues to deal with. POODS
One can assume Mr Newtofo POQ has spies who tell him who is selling and who is buying millions of shares.....Gentlemen like POQ most likely have learnt over the years how to read these boards and spot those who are pumping and those who are ultra rude to suit their own positions. Directors too in this type of company have a little red book for those that they do not wish to engage with.
Turning to more interesting 'titbits' the numbers in the Origin report and accounts are very illuminating and re-confirm what others have wisely commented on in the past. Origin on its own does not have the resources to develop our acreage in the Beetaloo. Its interests medium term are therefore aligned with ours with their need to go to the market once they complete their investment next year and acquire their 77.5% property share . There was possibly some conflict recently as the Company would have been concerned that its margins were coming under pressure (its ROCE fell in the latest period to 4.6%) and it had therefore the need to put a cap on Group borrowings. Fortunately their prospects alongside those of FOG are set to pick up strongly in the second half of next year, underpinned by inter alia the strong LNG price in their markets.
If investors believe we can ultimately commercialize the Beetaloo Basin end 2022/early 2023 one envisages the two two partners now counting on minimal competition in the rest of the world and giving a message to buyers to buyers that the Basin is much nearer to the East Asia markets than the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman, and it's located in a relatively good stable environment.
Poods, I am fairly sure that POQ used to follow this Board once in a while, but most likely stopped when all the vitriol was coming at him for no significant reason. Now that we are getting some nice progress updates -- I would think that he is checking in now and then, but he doesn't post to the Board so might not see too many of the posts on any kind of regular basis would be my guess.
Does anyone know as I suspect if POQ is on this chatroom ? POODS
Yes Oleo -- that will get your technical suggestions right through to POQ.
Newto, not sure if this is the right email address?
Lol, I have seen projects that took 30 years and more till commercial oil/gas production (managed by real oil companies), so should not complain too much
Honestly, I wouldn't worry too much about your grammar, as I don't see management being terribly receptive to free consultations. I appreciate your posts and efforts, though. Here's the Falcon Story :
Hmm I am complaining that others do not have professional plans but on the other hand I send a letter with grammar problems - you understand what I mean.
Do you have POQ email address?
I am desperate because I see the technical problems derived from the power point presentations but do not see the mitigations
Oleo -- your English on your two technical posts is absolutely fine. I know that POQ will be able to understand what you are referencing just fine -- so just go ahead send them the way you have written them.
I am desperate enough to do that. But I would like to get some help with the wording from somebody with the mother tongue English because it should become a high quality letter or mail.
If I could get an email address, I would send you an appointment and an MS teams link?
Oleo, if you haven't done so already -- you should send POQ both of your last two technical posts -- as there is most likely some good suggestions that he can forward to Origin's technical team.
Oleo- TY for your insight. Always informative.
Guenrica- Its all good. I got thick skin. At the end of the day, we all want this bird to fly.
On page 21 you find the information that the Amungee NW 1H is completed with a 2 3/8" tubing. This is a small tubing. On the one hand such a small tubing can help you during production to prevent liquid loading. But on the other hand one problem is that you cannot use big diameter coiled tubing. And for drilling out bridge plugs in long horizontal sections the bigger the coil the better. So they have to use a small diameter coil and with such coil you get buckling and not enough weight on the bit/mill in long horizontal sections. That could be an explanation why after 200 m the operator was not able to drill and clean out the other 80 % of the not performing horizontal section .
I do not know the diameter of the tubing of Kyalla 117. But could be that they have installed a small diameter tubing there as well?
If yes, they drilled two times 1,000 m horizontal sections and after completion with small diameter tubing they reach the technical limits to drill out and to clean out the frac/ bridge plugs with small diameter coil thru tubing.
One solution could be to use a well tractor in combination or without the coil - but I would be surprised if they find a well tractor small enough for 2 3/8" tubing.
The other much more expensive solution: kill the well, call in a work over rig (but will need a BOP), pull the tubing, mill the plugs and restrictions with a drill string, pray that you have not damaged the fracs/ formation, do the recompletion and try to lift the well with a small diameter coiled tubing thru tubing again (or use a sliding sleeve ). And then we will see that all 11 frac stages kick in with gas and hydrocarbon condensate production, hopefully with not too much produced frac sand, otherwise we will need more CT jobs .
Words of wisdom gained through pattern recognition and painful experience with this play. But speaking these truths may get you harassed and attacked by the arrogance of the day traders and pump and dumpers who have suddenly appeared like Yellowjackets on a fresh carcass.
Wondering, is it fair to draw such conclusions from a slideshow? I know little about drilling. Regardless, we have drilled two wells both of which have issues. As I have stated, we do not need better marketing. We need clear data supporting the asset which will create confidence that a purchaser will be able to recreate. Until then, as someone else said, there will always be a day you can buy Falcon for cheaper.
I also think there are potential political issues to factor in. The moratorium came fast and lasted for what seemed like forever. Politics is like a pendulum and it could always swing again and create issues down the road. We need confidence in the assert and certainty on the political front. Until then, its a high risk investment. It has been interesting seeing all these new folks flock to FOG after a brief run. I will be the first to admit I could have made a lot more money on other investments over the past several years. This has been a painful ride with some many speed bumps. I am hesitantly hopeful at this point in time.
I think current gas prices have no bearing on Falcon. I think we are still at least a year from any real discussion about selling the asset…if we even get there. Fingers crossed.
I always appreciate your qualified contributions.
However, I think that the drilling companies used also have a lot and many years of experience.
Maybe Beetaloo has its peculiarities in terms of drilling and also lack of historical experience here, but I think the drilling companies are using their good and very experienced people here to maximise the chance of success, because if our bird flies here there will be a lot of follow-up orders and these companies can make a good name for themselves in the field of challenging drilling/exploration.
Had some time to read the Sep 2021 presentation more carefully. I really appreciate the quality of the slides and communicated informations.
On page 7 , borehole schematic: there you can read that all the plugs deeper than the casing diameter restriction are undrilled. Hmm, you do not need an expensive production logging to verify that there is no or just a small fraction of the production coming from the section with the not drilled plugs. This is a no brainer. What you need is an analysis of the restriction and then drill out the other plugs ASAP - and not waiting for another rain season.
Another perhaps critical point concerning the design of both (!) wells for the future, when the wells will be produced. You can see that at both (!) wells the heel of the horizontal section has a higher TVD than the toe. This is not a good idea at all because fluid slugs can accumulate at the heel , holding back and restricting potential gas production from the toe (after the operator has solved the two casing diameter restrictions)
Again: seeing this issues, it consolidates my image that the current operator is an amateur . And Fog, even as a 20% partner there should start to put pressure on the operator, should start to ask questions, should ask for meetings should talk, write a letter to the management of the operator etc. Because at the end of the day it is our money (even we are carried by the operator at the moment), fellow falcon sufferers.
As I currently understand from the published infos, I really see a know how and a lack of experience problem in the Beetaloo with the operator. POQ, please tackle this problem or proof that I am wrong.
We have created and ended up with technical problems at both (!) wells that make it difficult and delay the proof of commercial production rates in our Beetaloo asset. And without this proof we won't get the planned monetizing.
I think these strategic roles are evidence that POQ is planning to move forward now... We've been in hibernation mode for a long time. I think he's sending a signal to the market . We at Falcon mean business now.
And I think we need to get a root cause analysis and we need to know if this bottelnecks (flow and diameter restrictions in the casing) in both wells in the horizontal sections are a coincidence OR if the operator made a mistake the first time (what can be forgiven) and if the operator made the same systematically mistake a second time at the second well (what cannot be forgiven).
From the September 2021 presentation
Amungee NW 1H
Stages 1-7 low contribution likely due to restriction from the casing deformation and/ or the plugs having not milled out
Production was not sustained and there was evidence of a potential downhole flow restriction
At least Fog/POQ gets one "thumb up" from me for shooting straight and for not hiding the technical problems. For us it is much better to have this information instead of guessing in the dark and watching insiders selling down without this information.
It's increasingly clear that our CEO and the Board clearly believe they are going to have a sensible story to promote over the next 15 months or so. yet another positive sign is that a person with the calibre and experience of Mr Joe Nally has been persuaded to come on board and roll up his sleeves. His original background with Williams de Broe is blue chip and everyone ought to recognise in our community his achievements in recent periods building up his Cenkos business.
Bringing on board Camarco is another good move and ought to deliver in due course institutional support that former Management (Bruner and family et al) preciously won but subsequently recklessly threw away. Trading in the shares in the last week or so and before ought to have educated many of us here that any sustainable share price advance needs more than good news; it must go hand in hand with investors taking 'a longer punt' than too many of the small gamblers here trying to make a small turn in and out in a few hours. Others more wise on this board have made the same point.
I'm hoping like others inter alia the upcoming test results from Santos in the adjacent property could prove the big catalyst/game changer in the next couple of months. In this context one can now see glimpses on how the Company's Board
are properly planning ahead.
The Amugee news was great. What we need now is positive news from a horizontal frac. And when we get it the level of risk that hangs over us as to whether our Basin will ultimately be commercially developed, will dissipate, and any calculation of value per share in future will be calculated more positively with lower discount rates.
In the meantime winds in Europe (seriously) have been blowing the wrong way and have caused a continental energy shortfall, and the US is struggling the same with too much energy infrastructure in or around Louisiana and the Democrats blocking new gas pipelines flowing west to east. That's why the price of natural gas in all markets is sharply up. And new gas fields remain also in short supply.
Personally I did not foresee any opportunity to pick up more stock after recent announcements below 10 pence/17 cents. But I don't think either that these levels will last very long.
It should raise the profile of FOG, along with the appointment of Nally. We've complained for years about being under the radar....in my opinion things are about to change. Hopefully!