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Thanks to both!
Longknife: I guess to get more to my point - I don't know why we are seeing what is in my perception a delay in the initial 24 hour flow test. POQ promised us a 24 hour initial flow test - IMO that should happen within a couple of weeks after fracking but it hasn't yet been released so for whatever reason I am wrong. As Newtofo/OrsonM mentioned Origin is looking to release the 90 day flow test sometime after the first of the year.
As to my equipment comment I am almost certain that would not be the case - Origin has seen this coming for months and the this type of test is standard procedure. I should not have even mentioned equipment as that's highly unlikely - I am almost positive the 24 hour test will be run shortly if not already.
As to the timing on the test the well needs to clean itself up and unload the frack fluid. Once that happens the 24 hour test will be run - that gives Origin a base line and potential of the well. After that test is completed then the well will be flowed for a 90 day period (nothing magical about 90 days as the Amungee test was 57 days). Origin will monitor the pressure/volume/fluids over this period to gauge how sustainable these metrics hold up. How stable and level these measurements are over the extended test gives the engineers an idea of the Kyalla's longer term potential.
Longknife, Just speaking for myself only here, but if you look at the attached picture from a month ago (when the frack was being completed) -- there is absolutely no doubt about Origin had all the correct equipment on hand to complete both the frack and to clean up the well before doing the flow testing. Origin, plus all the fracking and testing equipment subcontractors, have had over 8 months to get everything organized and on hand for the flack and flow testing.
What is getting off track to some degree is this question about when Origin (or Falcon) were going to release any flow data at all. There was no commitment by either party to release a 24 hour flow rate, but rather Origin did mention having some interim results before the end of this year -- with the longer 90 day flow testing results coming next year. I know that POQ is hoping to release some early indications -- hopefully very soon, but that will only come with Origin's blessing and it may not be as soon as we all would like to hear.
Orson referenced the Falcon press release on October 2nd when the 11 fracking stages were completed successfully -- with a mention of flow results coming out in a few weeks time, but no exact mention of how many weeks. Orson had an earlier post that speculated that getting all the fracking waste water cleared from the well with possible increasing flow rates as the frack fluids are cleared -- could be taking longer as well.
Frustrating to be waiting for clearer news -- with the Kyalla 117 well spudding over a year ago, but if it is good news -- I can wait a while longer, and if it is bad news -- I DON'T WANT ANY DARN PRESS RELEASE EVER!!!
https://www.energynewsbulletin.net/exploration/news/1395559/origin-begins-fraccing-big-budget-kyalla-well
WW,
So you’re saying that Origin would wait a month for the well to “clean up” before performing the 24 hour test? Or maybe it’s because they didn’t have the correct equipment on hand? If the latter is true I’d have to stand w the people who say Origin is not a good operator. I don’t know much about this stuff but I do know they have had tons of time- months to be ready for this. Do the subsequent tests run off the 24 hour? Meaning the 30 day has to be 30 days after the 24 of after the frack? What am I missing? Thanks
Thanks Wet. Spot on with your articulation. Hopefully we get some kind of number or indication next week.
OTD2000: I take the 'first results' comment to be referring to the 90 day official extended flow test - which is the important one. The 'end' of October would be for the initial 24 hour flow test that reflects potential but not the wells sustainable flow/pressure going forward. Typically a fracked well takes a bit to clean itself up - I'm thinking a week or two would be sufficient but that is a guess on my part. If the initial 24 hour flow-test is not scheduled till the end of the year that would mean Origin is waiting for equipment to be put in place but I doubt Origin would be caught off guard on not having things in place for a simple test. I has told the 24 hour test would be performed at the end of October - If Origin keeps to its delayed news releases we may not hear for another week or so.
We need Empire or Tamboran to give Origin some news release lessons - the silence and lack of communication is not what POQ promised us before the Kyalla was drilled. IMO there is no reason to keep this well, out in the middle of nowhere, so tight - inquiring minds want to know :^) With all that said Origin has its reasons for what they do - we will know in due time.
Wet I think what JH was saying is on Origins site they say first results end of the year, while falcons press release said some news in a few weeks from October 2. I don’t think it’s really a conflict as much as how they phrase the type of info they may come out and when. Origin is not as trigger happy as Bruner was on his news releases for good or for bad. Can’t wait for some type of indication. Thanks all for the many good post!
I have noticed that many of us are getting a little snippy lately. If you are like me -- you overloaded on Falcon and hope it comes through. But lets not take it out on others on the board. A good bourbon will keep us all sane. Hope everyone has a good weekend.
What I would say people is that as a non-seasoned PI is worry / concern / unease (which alot of the time can be down to being 'in the head' of the PI themselves) can make people do things they wouldnt normally do and act irrationially. What I would say is that Falcon are very much driven by Origin and only yesterday Origin said they would update the market in due course. Surely if there was any news yesterday Origin would have a duty to disclose it.
Be patient friends, let the people at Origin and Falcon do their thing and no doubt news be it good or bad will be released in due course.
Worrying without good reason can make people do strange things
jfhealy: What do you see as conflicting in the FOG update? I'm hearing that we should get an initial flow report by the end of this month. If Falcon reported on Oct. 2nd that early stage gas flow rates are expected in the coming weeks then that would that not fit what we have been told? Not questioning what you said - just trying to clarify what your conflict/concern might be.
Thanks Orston I had not seen that Fog update , seems conflicting I will make an inquiry on Monday . Cheers jfh
From Falcon's press release on October, 2 2020 - Technical Update of Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2
"Early stage gas flow rates are expected in the coming weeks"
It has been one month since that release. I am not moaning, just stating the timeline in Falcon's own release.
Beetaloo exploration program resumes.
Published on September 21, 2020.
Origin has resumed activity at the Kyalla well site near Dalw Waters ,as part of the Beetaloo Exploration Project.
The Kyalla succesfully drilled in January , will now be fracture stimulated , followed by a period of production testing over the coming MONTHS ,initial results from this this are expected by the end of the YEAR , with full results in the first quarter of 2021 .
I am so glad I went to the Origin website where I got this information which is very clear and to the point , I have been adding to my holding and will continue to do so while funds allow .
Speaking to friends in Dublin they are all very happy with the situation ,no moaners allowed in that camp. Ultra hope you have the music sorted for the party after the FOG agm in December , Rock on.
GLA