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Soon to drop below 5P, I have never had an email response or been able to get through by phone. I dont POQ wants to come out of his bunker!
Oleo-ein
I have tired over the years to contact several of the parties. I have found the board to be insular and POQ, while pleasant enough to be a very lucky guy but also the glue keeping FOG from being a complete disaster. We still have decent geology, with the occasional headaches of drilling. The drilling is our friend and the management at this point. Philip has lost his credibility, mainly but not totally, due to loose lips. I currently hold 7mm shares POODS
For all of you that are commenting on here...have you written to the board in ref to POQ. Not a lot of need venting here if you feel that way about him. go to the website www.falconoilandgas.com and submit a letter. if they get 15-20 letters with same issues (what you mentioned below and POQ)....they may pay attention. I've done my part a couple times.
Thanks Oleo, I am not sure why, but the off-shore exploration programs were never impacted by the proposed legislation for exploration of the Karoo. Offshore E&P was somehow exempted from the legislation -- which is somewhat like what we saw with the Beetaloo versus offshore Australia and how the moratoriums only affected the on-shore gas developments.
Newto, thank you for the answer and the links. I think it's worth to re read this links.
BUT on the other hand, look at Total. Recently discovered and first gas expected in 2025
https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/luiperd-early-production-system-in-sight-for-totalenergies-offshore-south-africa/2-1-1052001
Oleo -- you are correct that some lobby work needs to be done, but I am also very sure that POQ is doing what he can to keep our Karoo options open to hopefully move forward with a local company like Sasol as a potential partner.
However, most of the lobbying work was done years ago and until such a time as the three sides of the government (two houses of parliament and the Courts) finally pass the legislation that has been re-drafted a number of times over the past seven years there is very limited work to be done as nothing can be done until the legislation is passed.
The current SA Mineral Resources Minister knows full well that Falcon will quickly move forward on exploration in the Karoo once the legislation is approved. The Minister also knows that the most prospective portion of the Karoo is the Falcon permit that is 7 million acres and has almost none of the dolerite formations that will make Shell's permits a much more difficult exploration. Bandu/Sunset Energy, who is the permit holder on the much smaller permit adjacent to Falcon's acreage had initial flows from the Whitehall formation that were in the range of 1.6 mm cu/ft per day from an unstimulated vertical well many years -- so we know the shale gas is there in quantities that could rival Falcon's permits in the Beetaloo.
Here is link to just one of the stupid legislative mistakes that SA is still going through from 2016 -- with no approvals for even just simple exploration being close to approval.
https://miningnews.co.za/2016/05/12/south-africa-takes-steps-to-split-oil-gas-laws-from-mining/
Here is a link from 2016 and one from 2017 where the Mining and Minerals Minster Zwane -- who POQ met with many times along with his predecessors -- was celebrating that the Karoo was getting the green light for exploration.
https://www.eurasiareview.com/26012016-south-africa-minister-says-shale-gas-has-far-reaching-benefits/
https://www.news24.com/news24/SouthAfrica/News/govt-gives-green-light-for-shale-gas-fracking-in-karoo-20170330
Here is a link to the dolerite problem in SA and Falcon's holdings sitting just outside most of the dolerites:
https://karoospace.co.za/dolerite-karoos-fracking-game-changer/
Oleo, it would seem that SA is well worth courting for POQ, but, I suspect he is still smarting from the charges of bribery the previous admin saddled him with. Obviously, they wanted more, so being cash strapped he probably figures he doesn't have the resources to negotiate effectively.
Newto
I think it is the right way, that POQ has invested some effort into South Africa. But IMHO it is a big mistake to let the Karoo field in South Africa rest, because things are changing in South Africa compared to 2, 5 years ago
- Total has discovered big offshore gas and condensate fields in South Africa recently
- The South African government plans to burn less coal and less diesel for power generation
FOG has to do some lobby work in Africa now and again, because for South Africa it would be a much better solution to export the offshore gas, condensate and burn the shale gas for power generation than to burn the offshore gas for power generation.
Fortunately bigones -- the cheaper methods have already been developed through the drilling of tens of thousands of deep shale gas wells in: the Marcellus, Barnett, Fayettville, and Haynesville shale plays. It won't be that difficult for production companies like Santos, Tamboran, Empire and Origin to duplicate what has been a very successful model across the US.
Santos needs to show commercial flows and to get the well costs down substantially . I have read that these well wells are extremely expensive as Origin has proved and the gas flows so far don't recoup the high costs of the wells. Yes the gas is there, like so many other places , example Hungary but it will stay there until better , cheaper methods are developed.
Oleo, just for clarity on Falcon's 7 million acre holding in the Karoo.
POQ has done more work with three successive Ministers of resource development than either Shell, Bandu, or any of the other smaller shale gas players in South Africa. POQ was the key man in charge of dealing with the SA gov't to move shale gas in the Karoo forward for a number of years and made many trips to SA to meet with the various ministers, industry groups. POQ even made presentations to and had a number of meetings across SA with the anti-Karoo group led by Jonathan Deal in SA.
All these meetings, trips and development proposals went absolutely no where -- as the idiots running SA couldn't get one single piece of simple legislation passed that would allow exploration to move forward in the Karoo. That same single piece of legislation is still bouncing back and forth between two levels of gov't and the courts seven years later.
There is absolutely no need for POQ or anyone else to be wasting any time or effort in SA until those idiots ruining the country get off their useless rear ends and get this legislation passed, as without that legislation in place no further Karoo exploration work can begin.
Where is Fog in SA? Is the Fog asset part of the new petroleum bill in SA?
... discussing gas marketing with the government, which owns both the Eskom diesel power plant and the PetroSA gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant in Mossel Bay. The diesel power plant is able to burn natural gas and would like to switch fuels as soon as possible. Also, the GTL plant has been stopped with no feedstock since December 2020 because the Block 9 gas production has been depleted.
And POQ oversleeps the chances and opportunities for gas in South Africa.
Investment update
Bloomberg article from yesterday: Coal-Reliant South Africa Is Turning to Gas Power – the main points:
South Africa is the world´s 12th biggest source of greenhouse gasses
80% of its electricity is produced from coal
The government aims to cut emissions to net zero by 2050.
SA plans to use natural gas to produce at least 25% of almost 12,000MW of additional power by 2030
SA already imports gas from Mozambique, but further gas development there is limited by an Islamist insurgency.
The primary source of gas for the SA´s is the 11B/12B that AEC owns 10%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/coal-reliant-south-africa-invests-in-gas-power-to-go-greener
LK, who knows what to believe here, the history has been abysmal for 4 years now. What I believe and what I hope for are two different animals, but I dont like what I see in the next little while. Origin and Falcon are so pathetic that posters are hanging their hats on whether drilling by others will be successful. Origins balance sheet is in poor shape thus leaving me less than optimistic of a proper well funded drilling program for 2022.
I would have to give POQ a 0/10 on this years work alone. If he is being forced to do nothing by Origin, then he should come out and say that. Just no excuse for the small amount of work we are doing this year, the late start and the fact that we didn't have every contingency cobered for the Kyalla.
BC- I'm not saying you're wrong but if you really believed that you would sell all today. No?
O out of 10. We gave away another 7.5% of the Beetaloo for what, pretty much no drilling program. The poor souls that were conned into paying 14P must be shaking their heads. Instead of paying off the manageable $4.5 million dollar debt 2 years ago, we are now burdened with an $8 million payment in April, which they will not extend IMO. Who knows where the price will be then, are we going to do another share dilution of 200,000,000 for $.05, what a DISASTER!. What a joke!
If we surveyed the shareholder base... what do you thing the consensus approval rating would be for POQ’s job as CEO? Is there anything remotely defensible about him anymore? Can anyone identify one “positive” in his performance?