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stuofthetoon Are you from Newcastle ? Mike Ashley paid $135 M for Newcastle united, selling for £340 M. selling to Saudi wealth fund.
There is nothing wrong with Newcastle and there will only ever be one Kevin Keegan .
I am pretty sure that the S.P. will bounce back then improve slowly 3-6 years.
Although I have been wrong in the past.
I would invest in this stock but I am in at about 125 quite heavy.
Good luck bonny lad
In a word - Mike Ashley!!
oh nothing wrong with Newcastle, just an example people willing to fork out money during an incoming recession.
Hey, whats the matter with Newcastle United Lol.
I am certain a hedge fund who have made a tonne of money in this crash will buy FirstStudent. Whether that be Apollo again or the million other hedge funds.Who would have thought someone would buy Newcastle United ?!
Cash burn rate on the other hand may be bad but not be a bad as others. Uk revenue protected by gov , bus depot rent covered by holiday scheme? Furloughed staff covered by Uk gov , US bus depot costs ?. Concern but not just yet
Certainly would not want to sell cheap but buyers will be there. They may not get the price they would have got 6 months ago but hopefully not far short. Nobody knows when normal service will be resumed in US but these assets have a value.
They have £800m liquidity to keep lights on. What we do not know is how much it is costing to keep lights on per month which is a concern.
Who would buy the NA business in its current state? Maybe for a really low price but a fraction of what it was worth last year. I am not saying FGP won’t survive, but the priority at present is keeping the lights on, nothing else.
PYUECK, they will have enough money to keep the lights on for a long long long time if they sell the NA businesses. FGP not competent to run any NA division.
Davde - Disagree. The priority is the business having enough money to keep the lights on.
Progress on the disposal of the NA assets should be priority. I have had concerns re profitability of NA assets they look good on surface but when you add in insurance provisions they are not! Agree UK Bus and rail services will require significant support for sometime however sure they will get it so confident these parts of business Ok
What level of profitability is another matter! Good news re greyhound makes a sale possible.in my view as it is still a going concern. GLA long way to go!
IMO First Student will be sold, there will be a brave investor who will know how to make money from this. Which leaves FGPs recovery extremely slow . Painfully we will have to hold onto this stock for another a few years to even get to the heights to we were before (OFC i hope im wrong !!!) This financial year we were heading towards a loss anyway, we were operating on low margins / high operating costs for the past 2 years, low margins but with now low operating costs were the less of 2 evils. How a CFO and CEO can allow a 128 M impairment charge is beyond me. Current CEO/CFO dont have enough skin in the game, just happy just to cruise by and blame legacy issues. ow the current CEO stayed beyond Wolfart Hauser is beyond me ! New CEO with a fresh pair of eyes would be an absolute perfect current scenario i.e National Express in 2008 , greatest turnaround story of public transport
Hmm maybe, but if a business which is pretty much completely not operating is the jewel in their crown then that's not a good state of affairs.
The thing is FGP is a low margin business, a too low margin business. Knock off a few % of revenue and the margins get wiped out, knock off well over 50% and things get pretty desperate fast. IMHO FGP's future depends on the level of government support it can get over the next few months and how much they can reduce costs. Trying to work out if it is enough will be very tough for anybody, especially retail investors to work out.
On a side note reducing exec pay by 20% seems on the skimpy side to me considering the impact on revenue at present. The CEO is on £876k. To be honest always thought he was a decent enough CFO but a totally uninspiring CEO, but that's another issue. I think he should have accepted a lot bigger reduction that 20% until the lockdown is done. Taking home around £700k is hardly sharing the pain.
There is cause for concern, Railways will need to be on a nationalized scheme for the foreseeable future . UK bus will need to subsidized for a long time. UK Gov has no strategy to exit lockdown- NHS can now cope , now what ? , how can they enforce social distancing on a bus/train when they cant provide face masks. Sale of NA divisions would be best interest of all as FGP are not efficient enough to manage them- even though FirstStudent is the crown jewel for recovery.
I am slightly assured that the business can keep going for a while. But I am very concerned not just how long the lockdowns will last, but what the short, medium and long term impact on passenger numbers will be. Cannot see commuter traffic returning to normal for a long time, potentially years, or even ever!
Getting slightly more assured, but some forecast numbers based on where they are now would be helpful e.g. cash burn and some sort of EBITDA even if negative!
Poor management haven't even indicated if they will be deferring their salary. Judging how slow they are with the greyhound sale we are never going to get a update til end of May. Which again the directors will blame COVID 19 for another loss making year
An update on revenue negotiations would be nice!
US have already issued $25 billion in transit-assistance funding to support public transit recipients. Whether FGP want it / prefer the revenue from the schools / clients is the complications. Greyhound will definitely be loss making but we already knew that. How this would look like when they announce their end of year will be tricky but not as bad as to warrant a 25p share price
I believe that the fall may be partly to do with the US bailout of the airlines not including other transport providers such as FGP. Pretty impressed by this stocks rebound over last few weeks, still have huge question marks over the net financial impact of these shutdowns on FGP once all the loss of revenue is compared to the government assistant programs. I have no idea of the answer and doubt many, if any do.
Big drop today, really do need nerves of steel during this period. Hope to remain optimistic .
Sounds sensible approach, driver recruitment and retention a big issue pre Covid, if you cannot keep all stakeholders on board, service delivery afterwards not good! You will not get economy going if there is nobody to take you! A pragmatic approach will be mutually beneficial to all parties!
Once this reaches the 80s it will be familiar territory for us long term shareholders. After a lot of digging on the internet , for both transit and student They do not want funds from the CARES package but want the schools/ companies to pay them arguing that there will be a driver shortage in the future, if the drivers are unable to get paid then they will work for amazon .
Yes you can bet there are a wide range of different contracts making it complicated to calculate impact! Would still like even a caveated estimate. The SP has been recovering nicely though, wish I had topped up in the 30s! GLA.
I don't think we will get a response anytime soon regarding the NA revenue as it all depends on each district / governor. From what I hear on the NTSB regarding first student is that some schools are paying / some are refusing to pay from advice from their attorney / some are holding out till the district order the school to pay. So very mixed and complicated
First transit absolute no idea of an update
Think our final big push upwards is when they publish the results at the end of May