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That's what I'd like to see, too, Gavster. Not sure we'll see much debt repayment but as long as the debt isn't increasing and CapEx is happening, that's going in the right direction.
Most brokers have had targets higher than the range we've been trading in. If we get a decent update we'll move towards those targets, and I'd guess they know that, so I'm expecting it to be bid up some up until the update. A good update will sustain that.
I think someone's been shorting this one pretty heavily and perhaps looking to close out some of those shorts before the update. I don't think prices of 350 were at all realistic.
Welcome Marcus, Hi to all and Happy 2020.
Are we about the break up to a new trading range ? Second time in recent days there has been a 4-5% upswing to the 410s.
Maybe according to Skier this double castle point would surely signify a trend towards 600p...
Trading update a 2 to 3 weeks away. What are we expecting ?
IMO I'd like to see a steady update with showing good sales in tonnage, debt repayment and the expected capex spend, and any profits down, already priced into the SP and due mainly to the metal/ore/coal prices.
In my view you got in at a fairly low point. Not saying we won't see 350 again, we might, but I suspect we'll also see over 500 and maybe quite a bit higher than that within your time frame. Meanwhile, the dividends should keep rolling in.
I'm not heavily into this share. Most of mine are rather more stable. Happy to play around with higher risk/reward for a small stake.
Thanks Taking my time.
I'm fairly experienced in holding through the rough times. (SAGA, Centrica and Lloyds to name a few).
I decided to take the plunge with a small holding at 396p.
Being a company I'm not familiar with I can only go off the graphs and figures and overall they look fairly positive. If I can pull in a decent return over 5 years then I will be happy. Decent to me would be anything around 5-10% per annum (capital or dividend).
I've stuck to well known names so far but that has not exactly proved to be any safer than unknowns.
It is a bit like gambling but better then putting it all on black.
Red flags:
1. If you can't stomach a lot of volatility, stay out. This will go up and down like a yo-yo.
2. Russian exposure.
3. Vulnerable to US/China trade war.
4. Vulnerable to currency fluctuations.
5. Relatively high gearing.
Their Russian peers tend to pay virtually everything in dividends. EVR doesn't quite do that, they've reduced gearing some. And they've committed to some significant CapEx. But you should see significant dividend payouts if you can stomach seeing your share price bounce up and down like crazy.
I spent a bit of time last week looking for a new share to invest in and this one caught my attention.
I've had a look at the financials and nothing in there looks too scary.
Any red flags I should be looking for? The yield seems wildly over the top from what I can see there has been a missed dividend payment but could not find an RNS stating this.
Maybe he's Skied off the mountain ??
He's looking for 150.
Either that or he did the smart thing and closed out his shorts once the reversal became obvious, so has no reason to post on this board any more.
Wheres Skier1 gone?............398p
LOL. Let's get back to 400p first! But we may have turned the corner. The nice thing here is the pound strengthened and the SP still is going up, the impact of an increasing pound is swamped by other considerations.
What say you now Skier ?
Back to 500p ?
https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/metals-gain-as-trump-signs-off-on-china-trade-deal-to-halt-dec-15-tariffs-119121300250_1.html
Indicators
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Ferrous/HRC-FOB-China#tabIndex=2
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Ferrous/HRC-N-America#tabIndex=2
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Ferrous/Steel-Rebar#tabIndex=2
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price
https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vaneck-vectors-steel-etf
Hi, Gavster. Of course, predicting US politics is a dangerous game to play. But for investing in any company with international concerns, I try to keep an eye on the politics of the nations involved and think through how it could impact the company.
In this case, it's not just the US but Russia and China as well. Chinese politics can be somewhat inscrutable but I still think it is useful, for instance, to try to think through how the Hong Kong situation might affect Chinese behaviour in the trade war. Does it make them more likely to do a deal to be seen as responsible international citizens who have to deal with an intransigent group of protestors? Or does it make them more likely to hold a hard line on the trade deal to prove how tough they are, for internal consumption?
Obviously, the answer has ramifications for EVR. In buying it, I had to be prepared to ride out the trade war for several years, on the chance they do the latter.
I also considered French and German politics before buying heavily into another sector, UK housebuilding. In my view, the German political weakness and Macron's troubles with the protestors convinced me that the EU needed a deal as much or more than the UK did, and thus that a deal would happen. And I was convinced that the UK would not go Corbynista, and so we'd have a relatively business friendly government with a deal with the EU, and thus housebuilders were significantly underpriced. So far, the first half of the deal has come through, the polls indicate the election probably will as well, and I expect (for the same reasons) a trade deal to be completed relatively quickly. I expect housebuilders to surge after the election if we get a Tory majority, and even more so once a trade deal is done. But I was in light before, and I only went in heavy because I was convinced by my reading of European politics.
FWIW. There are many things that can affect company performance and share prices, I manage to think about a few of them and there's a lot more I don't know.
Certainly TakingMyTime, I found it eye-opening that you even had an angle on the presidential elections for an investment here. I've always looked at fundamentals for what to invest and the charts for possible trades to improve my average. It's a fresh take for me as I'd never even considered looking across the pond at their politics in favour of assuming there will be a sensible resolve to the trade dispute at some point, and EVR should remain profitable through out whatever happens.
Gavster, don't count on Trump being removed from office. It takes 2/3 of the Senate. The Senate is Republican majority, and not one Republican in either house has broken ranks and said they'll vote for impeachment. Trump's approval is above 50%. He's accused of doing the same thing Biden publicly acknowledged doing, so the Republicans have lots of cover to stick by him as long as his approval ratings stay reasonable. He'd have to lose his support rapidly for this impeachment to come to anything, and the latest jobs report shows the American economy is still doing pretty well.
I think it would be a big mistake to make investment decisions based on impeachment. Even if he is removed, I'm not sure Vice President Pence will do anything different. To change this administration will require an election.
DYOR obviously, but that's my view of it.
Thanks TakingMyTime and Thaiflyer.
TakingMyTime, that's a compelling and thought provoking argument for the Sino-US trade dispute to be resolved before the next US election. Now that impeachment proceedings look like starting, there might even be a quicker resolution to the tariff war. The last impeachment for Clinton, lying about being with a girl who then froze the evidence on a blue dress. His lie was to save his marriage and maybe he thought.it was saving Lewinsky's indiscretion too. It's all very different to Trump's list of misdemeanors.
Hi...........i/m with the pair of you in that the south american tariffs should work in Evraz's favour as should the rise in iron ore price and yet here we are.............as for level II , the big boys seem to decide where its heading for the day and theres a deluge of A trade sells to get it there...............i dont profess to know all the in's and out's of level 2 but thats what seems to happen each day
Cant help thinking the directors must be thinking positively to be investing 3-4 billion over the next few years on expansion/renewal............or why would they bother?
IMO...........next set of results will be positive and we will be back up to 450p by next March
Hi, Gavster. You are correct that the S.A. tariffs would help Evraz, but the impact of that is minor. What the tariffs did was stir fears that Trump can't/won't work with anyone and so there isn't going to be a China deal. That, combined with his statements about China was enough. It really is all about the Sino-US spat, and whether it is going to get better or worse. I suspect that this came about because the sentiment swung, in one day, from "some kind of deal is probably coming, even if just enough to stop things getting worse" all the way to "things are probably going to get worse." It jumped clear over the middle ground of "who knows what will happen" in a single day.
I'm still in the "who knows" category. Trump has made statements before that sounded like he wasn't agreeing with someone, only to turn around and make that agreement. His strategy when trying to extract one last concession is to make it appear that he's going to be walking away. He's volatile and unpredictable, but that's intentional, I think.
If the trade dispute situation gets worse, this will drop further before it recovers, even if the company keeps making money, just due to sentiment. If it improves, this will go up even if the company doesn't make significantly more money. To an extent, in deciding to hold this for the medium to long-term, I'm betting on trade resolution. I expect that if Trump thinks he needs a deal to be reelected he'll find a way to make it happen.
If not, it won't happen until after the election. The Chinese will want to avoid concessions in the hopes that Trump's political needs will force him to concede, or that he'll lose the election and they'll get a friendlier President to work with. If Trump loses, whoever is President will do a deal. If he wins, he'll be in a stronger position and the Chinese will recognise it and do a deal. Could happen sooner, I guess, if the polls show that Trump is winning and the Chinese don't want to wait.
This will always be a bumpy ride share. It is even more so with the trade dispute on.
Hi Thaiflyer and TotalTrader and all.
The volatility in recent days is alarming, and I think skier is correct in that the SP will sink like a stone if there is any significant drop in the Dow and FTSE. There seemed to be no fundamental changes that caused the 7% drop other than sentiment and worry about the Sino-US trade dispute. The tarriffs on the South American steel imports to USA, and please correct me if wrong, would only actually benefit Evraz. Iron price is up a bit as is Steel as is Coal, yet here we keep sinking, the rising a bit massively on a market jitter. If there is a director selling, then this would kill off the sentiment. As far as the SP price, is it realistic that there is a dividend of 10%, being 35p ? The SP having previously bounced around a yield of 10%.
Thai, what does level 2 say about the volatility ?
The FT forecasts still look good.
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=EVR:LSE