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Fair comment there calamari
Ive worked out my risk:reward and invested a rate according to that.
Ill be pleased with anything over 40p
Ill be ecstatic if we achieve the value i believe its worth and any more i sure wont be upset either.
Boombaby - I'd look for a 3rd estate agent. To be fair this is harder to value than a house but that's one hell of a margin for error:-) £2.5b is possible IMO above £4b is not.
Partypopper, would still be questioning your house valuation if there was a couple of estate agents involved in valuation?
I think I'd have to question the experience of the estate agent if they valued my house between £250k and £750k lol
Debt laden Highland Gold went for 1.4B, EUA stands head and shoulders above them. UBS is advising their clients to close shorts at 29-31p per share, I see it as an absolute rock bottom valuation, top price being somewhere between 2.5B-7.5B, eqivallent to 90p - £2.7 per share.
Well done to all shareholders, you're are about to be serioisly rewarded. Here is me hoping that, as profesional gamblers, more or less accidently, you put some of your winnings into companies that I hold lol
I wish they’d hurry up. I need to put a deposit down on a new 911!
No Dickie, it's all good no matter which way you look at it tbh. It's the competition for something like Monchetundra that will drive this very high and to a level well away from any average premium imho.
GLA
Can i ask this, if you were told ANY share had the chance of a 70% increase within weeks would you consider that a poor profit?
It will be priced according to what can be extracted within a given timeframe. Not just by how much is in the ground in total. So they'll consider that X amount can be extracted over a period of, say 20 or 10 years, at a front loaded Y cost, determine potential and price the asset accordingly. There's unlikely to be much a correlation with the current share price /mcap, because the latter hasn't been well related to such numbers. I'm sure it'll be considerably higher otherwise I wouldn't be here.
I think we have first mover advantage on the resources closer to MT but the balance making up the 40Moz is a distance away and, if it's been reported accurately, a fair portion of that balance may be unavailable as Barrick Gold is reported to have sold their licence from there recently (reported 15/5/20). It's not beyond the realms of possibility that EUA may have been the buyer, I'm not saying they were, just putting it out there for balance.
There was a claim that EUA, via a subsidiary company, had reapplied for the exploration license for the Volchetundra area which is not included in all the 40Moz potential but is around 5kms from MT. It was drilled by EUA and AA between 2004 and 2011 when the Pd price was under $600/oz. 12,000m of drilling was done and EUA stated they would reassess the data and may reapply for the license (4/12/19 RNS) The average grades from drilling results there look interesting.
Good post James. The market doesn't know how to price us, the MM's are making money. We'll have the last laugh.
No comparisons being made, but the Collagen final offer at 6.5p represented 2.8 times the SP at the time the offer was made.
If EUA were to receive an offer of multiples at that level, it would equate to 92p. Very risky to trade this at the moment, offer could land at any time.
GLA
Yes, that's the one James. It was posted on here at the time as an example.
How much is the keys to a 40Moz PGM district worth?. First mover advantage for that lot. And by the way, that's a very conservative figure for what is shown to be in the area via historical exploration done.
It's just completely in a league of its own, it's the only fair way to describe it tbh. Strong metal prices and very strong metal price forecasts going forward, the perfect storm imho.
GLA
Tiddlor
Absolutely agree with you.
Collagen Solutions - the unconditional offer was RNS’d this week. I believe the price was at a 160% premium to the SP at the time of the offer.
The initial offer was RNS’d intra day and the SP instantly rerated from 2.3p to 6p.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/COS/offer-declared-unconditional-in-all-respects-ldh29fhox2x745e.html
Hi GreenMan,
We don't know when an offer will land, the expectation is soon and that's my feeling.
With Highland Gold an offer was made at 20% premium to the VWAP of the month leading up to the offer and a4% premium to closing price the day prior to the offer.
Highland Gold was a producing mining company meaning the market could value it far more accurately than you can with EUA who's main asset is not producing, secondary asset is about to up production considerably and there is a lot of value adding news we are not privy to yet but potential buyers will know.
EUA takeover at only a 70% premium? Really?
Look at COS, FSP concluded end of August. Something like 450% premium offered based on the share price at the start of the FSP, 250% premium based on 3 month average, erc
Given the nature of EUA's assets and the involvement of UBS etc, a 200 to 300% premium, if not more, from the current share price, is definitely doable here.
I can't see how a company with assets available to them (once licences have been granted -a formality) of over 40m oz of pgm equivalent can be sold for 70% premium of 31p. It doesn't work for me. That would be 52p a share and an mcap of around £1.5b from assets worth over £100b in a few short years. It isn't a matter of what it's worth now it's a matter of what it's going to be worth and we have the rights to apply for these licences. We're not even talking about the gold, nickel and copper. It's massive and the market has no clue.
The share price was 7p when they entered into the FSP. Tells you everything you need to know. GLA
GreenMan. As Mac as suggested, this is not your normal run of the mill sale. The world is changing and our loot is required for so many products for a greener environment, therefore the rule book and comparisons goes out of the window.
Regards
Ryan
Mr Y fronts, I don’t think that’s how it works, the offer will be a premium to the current SP no?
We don't yet know what the SP will be when/if we get an offer so the premium isn't yet known.
There was one recently that did 160% for quite a small company. It was posted on here at the time.
This is platinum group metals and gold, with significant Nickel and Copper as by products, it's not your normal run of the mill asset sale. Last no consolidated Palladium play.
GLA
Can anyone provide an example of when a premium of 2-300% has been payed for a company through FSP? It just doesn’t make sense to me. I can see a premium to the sp of max 70% being payed. It just doesn’t make sense to me, but if anyone can explain I would be grateful as. I discussed it with an M&A expert friend of mine today who works for Evercore and he said nobody ever pays that kind of premium.