Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Lots of answers on Wressle will be forthcoming when the Gaffney Cline report is published.
UJO one of the 3 partners commissioned the report
They are compiling three production scenarios for the Wressle oilfield,
Looking at the low, medium and high cases, covering the remaining planning period of 13 years.
They will also comment on any possible untapped resources at the Wressle-1 well that may be present.
I guess we will all be hopeful the 3 partners all rerate once this report lands, news is due soon.
Serif,
Thanks for the response although a little pedantic imho - as one other poster put it here - its not really about the numbers , but what the Wressle FCF can do which I think is right. Wressle is 300 bopd - even if you assume they quadrupple production no one is getting rich - however Serenity is a different story and perhaps later on some of the other assets
1) Have you looked at the Tennyson report ? They model revenue from 2021 through to 2025 - i've taken the opex number from this report which is around $18 / bbl and applied against 300 bopd so accurate enough for my purposes
2) I have not modelled EOG based on one days oil price - however the numbers I was looking at was for the current period in the Tennyson report i.e. 2023 which they clarify as July 22 through to July 2023. The oil price they use is $110 / bbl - Brent is currently $93 so is modelling at $110 reasonable - maybe but the fact is Brent is currently around $93.
As far as me modelling i3e at $100 WTI - I change the model all the time but typically im trying to reflect the average price in the current calendar year which Jan 22 to Dec 22 - so far WTI has averaged $100 in this period though it is currently sitting much lower so not an apples to apples comparison although I will adjust the model to reflect Oil and Gas Prices for the full year.
3) Agreed - do your own research and form your own opinion !
4 & 5 I will listen again but he definitely says a year or two to bring on Pstones. There's some nuances and detail I need to understand on the gas handling but again I don't think this moves the needle much in terms of significant shareholder returns - its all about Serenity imo.
Not interested in any tit for tats but the summary information you have gleaned on Wressle is not quite accurate. Need to factor in the following:
1 300 is approx total production but not always helpful to lump together Wressle and other. Wressle is extremely profitable (if I recall total project costs calculated at under $18 a barrel based on only 500 bopd, now significantly exceeded with clearly an upgrade in reserves to come) Legacy wells less so. Any increase in Wressle numbers much more significant for profit.
2. Not sure it’s wise to make estimates on one day oil price - don’t see what’s unreasonable about original Tennyson estimate of $110 Brent, especially as a couple of post later you say your own modelling for Ie3 uses a figure of over $100 for WTI!
3. This is an opinion which could be argued either way in the absence of further information
4. Not the full picture. Pstones is not drilled yet for production and will probably need more work. If you listen again to the interview on Friday he gives a fuller description of where this stands. It’s the third reservoir to bring on after Ashover and Wingfield, with a very exciting gas component, hence a significant driver to get the gas off take issue sorted.
5. The operator (edr) have been very clear about their plans to deal with this in several rns’ and Simon reconfirms this in Fridays interview, so seems unnecessary to read anything into his not mentioning it in todays shorter interview. He also states they are looking to increase current production to 1300 bopd from Ashover once the gas handling is sorted. Whether EDR look as though they are doing enough to meet their given timescales may be a different question (!) but seems little doubt that the JV partners are pursuing the gas route and increased production - and that Pstones should feed into this nicely idc.
Selfish,
You should not be taking the moral high ground - if you go back and look at the original posts - it was you and botox that turned this personal - I played the ball - you and botox along with a couple of others played the man.
Condescending attitude - I don't think so - not my fault if certain SH's here cannot be bothered to do basic research and actually read Company Reports, Presentations and Broker Notes. I don't do ramping or deramping - i like to think I stick to the facts.
SH's should always do their own research - otherwise they will be lost trying to sift through some of the garbage peddled by certain posters here.
Interview ( https://youtu.be/Yf4VPxxz0Z4 ), covers the need, for domestic production, well,....thanks for interview link, chasrutledge.
BW
Sorry, just read your comments about tongue in cheek. Botox speaks a load of tosh so should be ignored. As someone said on another I3e thread, the children will be going back to school soon!
They are he was being sarcastic
Poor state of I3e’s finances???
I thought they were excellent and getting better all the time
You have 200k EOG shares Tony. Therefore, I can assure you it is considerably more my company than it is yours.
Your whole tone is disrespectful, Tony. You have an unusual gift of playing the man and not the ball. You couldn't stop attacking boltok, and now you are bleating on here asking for someone to collect him. You made your own bed, Tony. Maybe you'll hesitate next time before forcing your condescending superior attitude on those you don't know. Now, I've got better things to do than compare willy sizes with the likes of you. I know mine will be bigger, anyway. TTFN
Selfish,
I3e is not my BB and this is not yours. I’m a shareholder here too so just as much my Company as yours. I have not attacked EOG - I just like stick to the facts and not try to mislead fellow investors by either over ramping or deramping a share. Please point out where you think I have unfairly attacked eog or posted something misleading - I’ll be happy to retract otherwise sit down and take a chill pill.
I’m not too concerned about Boltox posting on any BB - his posts speak for themselves and done nothing more than demonstate what a muppet he is.. Better ignored including here if SH’s are interested in learning anything useful.
I don't know. He comes on here attacking Europa shareholders, then when someone goes on his bb he doesn't like it! So what does he do? Comes back on and attacks our company. What a child.
Tony makes excellent reading thanks for info a multibagger in the making
BoomBoom - It was tongue in cheek - have you seen what Boltok has been posting on the i3e forum.
i3e's finances are very healthy the +$90m capital program is being paid out of cash flow and Management are Projecting a minimum of $66m of unencumbered cash at year end. At $100 WTI - i model it at more - so no worries there.
"looking at the poor state of i3e’s finances" - Are you sure poor financial situation of i3e? I think their current year capital budget is nearly $50m from the existing cash balance. They are generating substantial cash flows from their Canadian assets.
This is what my review of the available data / reports tell me:
Wressle & Associated Fields
------------------------------------
1) Production 300 BOPD
2) EBITDA at $6.9M though Tennyson have run the numbers at $110 Brent. At current prices, I have it nearer $5.5M. I also think Tennyson have way underestimated SG&A
3) Year End cash (July 2023) $9m although I think it could be less due to above
4) *****tone – drilled but wont be put into production for a “year or two” as per Simon Oddie in todays interview.
5) Also no mention of the flaring limitation and gas handling facilities – is this still going to happen ? Where is the additional production coming from that some were touting earlier ?
Irish Offshore Gas field (Inishkea)
--------------------------------------------
1) 1.5 TCF Prospect (Best Case)
2) 10 KM North west and down dip of Corrib – separate structure
3) Slightly more than 1 in 4 chance of success – those that have been banking the dollars already need to figure in this in (Tennyson June Report)
4) No timeline for a farm in
Serenity
--------------
1) Oddie thinks it’s a better than 1 in 2 chance of success with a downside hedge of already having proved reserves of 2.5mmbbl net to EOG. I think he’s right – almost seems a no brainer and should tag onto the Tain Development.
2) Based on the above – its all about Serenity. Without it - it could be a slow road ahead for EOG unless a farm in partner suddenly jumps out the woodwork for Inishkea.
Having said that - looking at the poor state of i3e’s finances – Serenity better happen soon otherwise the Project may get canned – have you seen the rubbish Boltox is posting on the i3e Forum.
I’ve been asked whether someone here can call him back and put him back in his cage - please !!
Morroco – location location location and in any case looks like it will be down the road.
Noticed the other day for Serenity, Simon said is was 50/50 risk, but on the interview (right at the end) he says "better than 50% risk".
Hope the next interview dosen't mention "60% risk".
Publicity works, we have had a little boost.
We hit 3p yesterday I'm sure it won't take long to get back above 3p again and continue higher, slowly slowly catchy monkey .
Imho
I must admit I didn't like seeing so much of the interviewer. I find I need to watch Simon Oddie in order to fully absorb what he's saying, but the interview showed more of the other bloke. I had to watch it 4 times before I noticed the Wingfield Flags error. Still, a very good interview........I think.
Tovoc great news ,alot of buys coming in today
Thanks, Chas.
Great interview, SO is out there spreading the word. :-)
IHMO
3.08p paid on Monday so currently a 10% discount and we're going to spud in very early September. Rig mobilisation/update any day now. Loved his ramp at the end if it 'comes in big then
1/4 of a billion dollars'. That's 8 bagger potential from £25M (£200M). Therefore next to no value assigned to Wressle and Ireland at 1.5TCF.
Wake up market
Positive on Serenity. A bit mixed on benefit /cost of high oil price , and with his ashover grit/wingfield flags mix up again, and how frustrating to hear yet again the partners are still discussing gas monetisation- pennistone plans which they started discussing a year ago...they have very long coffee breaks.!
As to Inniskea just forget it until Mr Ryan says ok, otherwise not worth even thinking about it. Good luck Serenity.
Thanks Chas, much appreciated.
Serenity comes in big a 1/4 of a billion dollars value to europa. I like the sound of that. Glad i kept faith with this little company.