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I'm expecting the balance sheet net improvement for y/e 31 Dec 2019 in 4 weeks time to be similar to the current market cap.. that's because of deleveraging.
FCF at $50 isn't there to prepay the 2021 RCF, We are already committed to drilling the Western Flank financed by Q1 hedging. The Enquest business model allows for $250m annual capex ($50m maintenance), so you could always cut 2021 capex and continue debt repayments in 2021 , just with a 10% smaller production level.. 60k in 2021 would still be fine. But the 2021 RCF debt would become an issue. We would struggle to pay $400m, so we really do need Brent back to $60 this year and at least half of the 2021 prepaid in the 2020 calendar year.. Unless of course they sell 20% of Kraken for a small fortune given the quality of the product.. Beefing up the balance sheet no matter what..
all the best disco,always a good read. gla monkey
We need to keep a eye on the number of flights within China, As soon as they start increasing then that's the bottom as I see it.
The western world should be able to control this outbreak relatively quickly with precautions in place.
Who is going to try and call the bottom then - or will this get worst next week???
Some of the worst hit stocks - on recent days - haven't fallen as much today - that includes Enquest - so far...
Problem isn't Chinese numbers - the market doesn't really trust them in whole anyway. It's the fear around what Covid will look like if it takes hold in the US, after what we've seen in Italy and around the globe now - that's the biggest worry for the market. The biggest driver for growth in the western world has been the US consumer and should they pull back and resulting real economic hit, that's the worry.
I can't believe the selling in the US this week - haven't seen it since the dire days just after Lehman collapsed in October 2008. It was too frothy leading up to last week and hence this washout is probably not the worst thing to happen. The one hope for us is that this sell-off doesn't hit the real economy in the US. Maybe we'll have better news flow over the weekend.
I won't be surprised if the US market finishes higher today - it's currently pointing to a 600 point lower open on the Dow. That's my base case for today.. ;-)
GLA
Ironic that he turned at the wrong time Dave,
Oh forgot, the other low life NH will be making up the gimp / monkey threesome........not a pleasant site to be fair.
All the best chaps, will be back soon hopefully.
DD
Opened the cage as well......run free you scum bag trolls........but not you Itsa, you are the lowest of the low and have something special lined up for you, monkey can’t wait to see what the gimp suit looks like on you.
Krak et al
Hate selling up, normally okay to run at large losses but the market will continue to over sell IMO until signs of virus panic have subsided, seeing your portfolio profit take a caning after working so hard to make it is hard. For the record trimmed a lot of stock this year and sold a few more today, not just here so nothing personal AB.
You and others on here have a lot more ENQ skin in the game than I did so much respect for hanging on.
DD
What for the CV to hit the shores of the US then you wished you had sold at 18p for sure !!
Wise call disco are you staying put krak ??
Very brave to stay in and good luck .
Went to the pharmacy this morning and he said they are running short !!
Ftse is going 5000 and brent low $30s what bargains to have hoping Shell hits £10 ??
Usually Its the day you decide to sell out the bounce happens. Then makes you feel even worse. That's how these big players pray on the week.
Fair play Dave.
Sold up at 19.7 at a loss but this foooooker ain’t going to win, will buy back lower (hopefully) when markets have settled. Held too long to walk away at a loss given the value here.
All the best to all long termers, respect for holding out here.
DD
“Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffet.
Yes, monday will be worse when the sp is lower!
There could never be a worst time to sell than now.
I recognise that CoV should be treated with absolute caution but the market has certainly oversold it. Either way I see this as being a significant buying opportunity when the dust settles. When that is I don't know but I'll certainly be waiting in the wings to grab some more below 20p... even at $60 oil anything below 20p is an absolute steal - appreciate we're currently $10 below this but that will not last IMO
The bottom line then is that China is getting back to work - they will be going at full pelt to get back to full production and to make up for lost production - they will need more oil not less oil.
The media have almost turned away from reporting on China, nothing to see and good news doesn't sell stories, now doing their very best to whip up a European panic.
Its looks very over done. The markets panicking will be hoovered up by the big players and then sold back to those sellers panic buying.
Just read a Trump Tweet Modestus and apart from him just itching to close borders, he says the same as you. China cases decreasing.
We are still burning through 97m barrels every day. ! Libya lost a million barrels from the market, Opec to remove another million, Shale on the verge of zero growth this year may even start to fall away. Lets not forget about the rest of the worlds producers that still haven't recovered from 2014, those fields are in decline.
"I just want to point out one thing though. This market is pricing in CoV spreads in US and all other major economies as well. I monitor the Chinese data quite closely. If you exclude Hubei province, then the number of diagnosed patients in ALL other provinces combined today is just 20 individuals. Since Feb this has been rapidly declining from 900 per day to 9~20 individuals today. People are coming back to work, including my owned business in Shanghai and Hangzhou (quite a few of my employees resigned though, due to fear of getting contracted), and quarantine in the office building is quite strict (need to have temperature measurement devices, specified masks, etc). So the impact on China will rapidly diminish by the later half of March and early April. If the market is pricing in prolonged contraction in China, then based on what I experience and what I see my friends' businesses are doing, that is just not true.
Not saying CoV shouldn't be treated seriously, but to be honest, I think the $13/bbl of sell-off in oil is probably overdone."