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Https://www.oedigital.com/news/495498-samsung-delivers-shuttle-tanker-to-altera
Apologies if someone beat me to it. Don't follow here too closely.
Next Kraken offload booked. One I missed, not being on the watch list, due to previously being located elsewhere in the world:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:6944402/mmsi:311001011/imo:9895264/vessel:ALTERA_THULE
ETA: 2024-04-27 00:01
And thence:
https://www.orkneyharbours.com/info/shipping
AIMoil
Unfortunately where you list has no bearing on where you pay tax. Tax is paid based on location of your operations and the only way Enquest can avoid EPL and other UK taxes would be to sell all of its NS operations.
AimOil It is grossly unfair to target an important industry. But there are no legal challenges available. All one can do it to campaign for the law to be modified. The Oil and gas industry is an easy target for taxing politicians. It has few political champions. I myself think one has to emphasise not just the jobs, the tax revenue and the energy security but the transition that is being made to a carbon neutral future. I am a big advocate of reducing carbon emissions more drastically. But that has to be done in a sensible way without wrecking the economy. Enquest are part of the solution as indeed are Harbour and a host of other companies who produce oil and gas do not ignore the science of climate change.
From the Annual report , ABs new vision : ENQUEST
EnQuest is providing creative solutions through the energy transition. As an independent energy company with operations in the UK North Sea and Malaysia, the Group's strategic vision is to be the partner of choice for the responsible management of existing energy assets, applying its core capabilities to create value through the transition.
EnQuest PLC trades on the London Stock Exchange.
Please visit our website www.enquest.com for more information on our global operations
And the wording is always suspect mrc. Do you support world peace, universal suffrage and an end to sectarian strife. Most would say YES but if at the bottom it asked you to pay £5,000 pounds towards these ends you might reconsider.
The climate alarmists have used up most of their ammunition and their threats and promises have come to naught and causing damage to existing industries. I believe that the Scottish people will be the battleground. If you can't get them onside then the renewables movement has failed. The country is after all the major source of UK hydro-carbons and wind.
It depends how you frame the questions.
SNP policies have been driven by the Greens. I can see cons and SNP being supportive of O&G now which will force labour to shift IMHO.
If the Scottish parties support O&G then it is one less source of negative media noise which can influence the general public mood.
Ask the public if they support banning new licences and they will say yes, but that IMO is because the extremist narrative has been unchallenged due to political expediency
AoK - the challenge would need to come from two directions. The costs and evidence that hydrocarbons do not harm the environment.
The flaky claims of the climate alarmists are now being challenged more openly. It was thought once career ending to say you don't believe in ESG or the effects of CO2. Now people are pretending that they never really supported it. With the importance of Scotland in all this I think we are due a major surge. A large part of the SNP's policies were around Net Zero and they have had to abandon their targets and Yousaf might lose a no confidence vote. If there is a Scottish election that could be a referendum on continuing with O&G or treating the industry like criminals.
Labour will take note of the Scottish anger. I'm angry and I'm not even Scottish. The touch paper has been lit. Let's see where it goes? It can hardly worsen the situation for us.
'It is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.' and this is a quote from 90 odd years ago when initial renewable discussions were commenced and it was decided to concentrate on wind power as being less controversial than solar which was a rarity in Scotland. The deep-fried Mars bar brealthrough was to change all that.
Sek, yep, understand your point, but this tax is not applied to all businesses, so why can't a minority that is suffering punitively challenge the government? If the tax is based on the making of excessive profits, where are these profits? Why does this tax not allow for all tax losses, other businesses are allowed? I am sorry, sovereign or not, EPL is unfair and has disrupted the market and is damaging the UK economy. If it cannot be challenged, personally, I would de-list from the UK stock market and list elsewhere, still have to pay EPL but the UK Government would not benefit from other future tax revenue.
We have been over this before. What legal challenge could be mounted to primary legislation? The Finance Act 2022 which brought in the EPL was passed by both houses of Parliament. Parliament is sovereign. It makes the law of the land.
I hope they (NS O&G companies) start making noises about a legal challenge a.s.a.p. The companies should all get together (even through the trade association) and put some money in a pot for a legal challenge. Such a challenge may even help the sp if people believed it might be successful. Any successful challenge would have a massive positive impact on the sector whether from increased profits, reserve valuations and economic stability/environment perspectives.
Waldorf have financial pressures and are small. RockRose is small too and their track record is short. Neo is a peer but also trying to exit the UKCS. For now I would add NEO so a peer group of 5 over a certain size production wise?
It might hopefully help us ascertain what assets AB might look at from the remaining sellers in the basin.
Rom
I would add Waldorf, RockRose and Neo to the list.
PS I am a VET-shareholder and i do hope the rapacious UK Government will be legally challenged by several oil companies too.
Stevo agreed. It is all a function of gearing which does as you point out favour Enquest with Brent at these levels. A $120m uplift for Enquest holders is around 30% non taxable return. A $120m dividend for Serica holders is 12% taxable return. I do not like taxes. I do not like dividends. I love share buybacks.
R , the more I look at it I feel AB isn’t up for merger … he’s more acquisition imho … seems to be placing his team for gaining producing barrels @ great efficiency … Veri energy is the political foil… imagine if he decided to relist Veri on Nasdaq and leave Enquest on LSE… just musing over croissant and sunshine :-)
SEK
Fully agree that both Serica and Enquest are under valued. In fact on any normal metric all UK NS operators are undervalued but this reflects the fiscal uncertainty that remains and will continue until Labour finalise their position.
On comparison of FCF for 2024, I have Serica generating approx $80m more FCF than Enquest in 2024 if Gas remains at 80p per therm and oil at $90. Key difference in 2024 is Serica’s all in cash costs are $45n per barrel compared to $75 for Enquest. However due to lower gas prices ($50 per barrel equivalent) and poor oil hedges in Q1 and Q2, I have Serica's revenue per barrel $25 less than Enquest at $90 oil. Net effect is that I have Serica generating $5 per barrel higher cash flow in 2024. If oil drops to $80 per barrel, Serica generates $14 per barrel higher FCF per barrel.
The key difference in 2024 is that Serica will use its FCF to return approx $120m to shareholders and Enquest will repay debt. The debt repayment by Enquest of say $120m should result in a similar rise in Market Cap. So in theory, with Enquest we should see a higher % gain in share price than Serica with Serica’s shareholders receiving more of their return in cash via dividends.
Of course theory and reality often very different
Tigar
If you go to note 28 and look under the section headed liquidity risk. The table in this note breaks down the BP payments to be made in 2024, 2025, 2026-2028 and 2029 onwards. This is a very useful note as it discloses both the projected payments to BP but also they same detail on lease payments.
ENQ in the low 15p and Brent up at $89.59, we should be having a decent bounce purely based on the Brent price, but nothing, plus volumes have been very low. I cannot understand why the analysts are not issuing or reiterating targets. It seems that ENQ and NS O&G have fallen off the radar. I just hope that ENQ's ridiculously low valuation represents a coiled spring that will eventually fire the sp upwards. I can't remember owning a share that has been so incredibly undervalued, particularly given the level of debt reduction - why does the sp not reflect the ENQ's net asset value and FCF?
Where 's the free market?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/25/vauxhall-maker-threatens-quit-uk-market-net-zero-crackdown/
Very similar to what happens to our sector. We have the privilege of punitive taxes until 2029 because the Government wants to force a much more expensive alternative upon the populace. Anyone still thinking consequences of net zero and electrification won't be detrimental to financial health, have simply a look at what copper prices are doing....
9 X cheaper....
BT, as far as I recall there is only 1 analyst note (Cannacord) currently at 33p or more. When the majority of the analysts have 33p+ it will be closer to unbelievable.
Does anyone know if there is available a consolidated list of the targets if the 5 analysts covering EnQuest?
https://www.enquest.com/investors/analyst-coverage
(James Hosie left BC over 6 months ago)
It is a lot to take in but it seems (to me) that the majors have all but left the scene in the UKCS. I'm suggesting the 'Peer Group' of mini-majors is.
Harbour
Ithaca
Serica
EnQuest
In the closing of the Ithaca Eni deal I read this: "although it should be noted that the Merger Ratio was determined between the parties on a relative net asset value basis rather than with reference to market share price." This to me is an admission that with the current political uncertainty the prices of all parties in the NS it is one of the worst indicators of value. Both political parties are guilty of this and I wonder what happens when they need the partnership of the remaining O&G companies? For sure they don't trust each other.
Spirit is still about and is predominantly gas (96%) not surprisingly with Centrica owning 69%. I think we can leave them on the sideline from a peer perspective as they are not really O&G. A faint connection is that AB did say we'd look at more gas and Neil McCulloch is ex EnQuest.
I realise there is still a plethora of small companies in the NS but in the new order the peer group of largish production companies seems very small and comes back to the comment by David Latin of Serica that it is "a small pond and everyone knows what's going on".[Everyone doesn't include us]
Have I missed anybody?
Jan, I know this half million trade would normally be a UT and appreciate your responding. I was surprised that there should be such a large UT on such a low volume day, hence my wondering if it were a buyback trade. Thank you for putting me straight.
We have a lot of chunky sells going through each day pressing on the SP
Buybacks may help whenever they start t