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Many thanks , this company is now seeing the production increases we all expected many moons ago. Oct and Nov are much better. The large bond can be extended to Oct 2023, which gives us 45 months to repay $1.5b. Only $33.33m / mth , I think we are capable of doing that now out of FCF and maintaining capex spend as well. May the force be with you on our journey to the 60p party.
All,
For those interested.
My BOEPD with estimated shrinkage Jan 18-Sep 19 with bonus +/- 5% traffic lights.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oryc6cmkglzf5i2/Enquest%20OGA%20BOEPD%20with%20Shrinkage%20Jan%2018-%20Sep%2019.jpg?dl=0
It's Friday night and the De-Rampy Team are on soon taking it down where it doesn't belong. Gonna smash it and then cash in hand (and g string) we're on the first Tanker to Sullom Voe. Keep you all posted.
GLA XXX
Hi Pelle, I've just referred to my original spreadsheet (circa Apr 19) which I posted to you on this board. I'll copy the bottom lines:
2019 Free Cash Flow $194m (or $8 boe price margin on $65 oil). Revised int $132m leads to FCF $227
2019 increase in free cash flow = $187m, add $194m, total for 2020 $381m. (Assume same again prod & oil price)
More than 6 months on I don't recall the point I was making with the 'revised int' adjustment, but suffice to say at the interim stage I referred to a more vague $200m- $220m FCF (based on 2019 CapEx of $275m).
10 months in the CMD slide 33 states FCF $210m, without reference to CapEx. We'll get a fuller picture in early Feb.
On 2020
i) For reasons I've pointed to in recent posts I'm now expecting higher production in 2020, which is a bonus, but I'll wait for the Feb guidance before working my numbers.
ii) I've since learnt a lot about the cash components and Magnus contributions. I'll add more detail to my numbers after the accounts in Mar. But directly to your question, on same again production and oil price, using my current crude methods, I'm still around an additional $200m above the 2019 number.
gkb47, point of order granted.
When I refer to decline rates, and most other rates of change, I have p.a. in mind.
L7, I have similar trend. Bit higher in front and lower in end.
Guess you revised your FCF now 2019 and 2020
McLondener,
Same language.
July 52870
Aug 63722
Sep 73350
Oct 86206
So I'm lighter than you H1 but October impact agreed in theory.
L3
As you say my spreadsheet looks at 4 months prior average for predictive purposes but doesn't really look at predicted increase outside that 4 months actual production based on what we now think we know . This is why recent Kraken/Magnus outage and now Thistle downtime would skew the graphs . I'll see if i can create a Therapist predicted line and then post them. If you just like the traffic lights then it probably doesn't matter to you but in the spirit of clarity it does to me.
GLAXXX
Hi Therapist, when the latest trading update (68,501 boped to end Oct) came out I posted here that it pointed to an average of 78Kboepd over Sept/Oct. Using my calculations for gas I have 73,647 boepd based on the OAG Sept number. This was so far off the 78K average I thought I'd miscalculated but I don't think I did, so I have 82,777 boepd for Oct, which is c 9,000K boped above Sept.
Where does that 9K come from?
Kraken adds 3K.
Scolty/Crathes adds noise but I'm hoping the bulk of the remaining 6K came from other fields, which have been slow to recover since the maintenance window. Thistle only produced 1,659 bopd in Sept when it had been producing over 4K bopd earlier in the year. Enquest will need these fields performing to move decisively above 70K boepd in 2020, which is my now expectation.
These are my numbers since H1:
July 52,887 boepd
Aug 64,584 boepd
Sep 73,647 boepd
Oct 82,777 boepd.
All,
Figures from last trading update were Jan-Oct. If I plug them into my model which attempts to shrink OGA figures to meet company info, then I have a rather large production increase forecast for October. Rounding approx, and as an improvement from September, 850 CNS, 9300 NNS & Magnus and 2600 Kraken. Roughly 86k net to Enquest. CNS is highest ever but not a big gain on September, others aren't highest, so just everything firing at same time. I'll stick my neck out but we'll see in the New Year.
GLAXXX