The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Epiphany (reply to yesterday 13:57) maybe a little bounce today although US markets still look to be overall favouring the bear case. In my view fridays are not the best days to accumulate, but I'll probably be buying (not ENQ) today for short term trades (close by end of business) in the hope that there will be a relief bounce. Still very comfortable to hold all of my ENQ shares and the longer term view I agree with the other poster who sees 200p in 2025. Could be earlier in my view. I'm assuming were able to (and I hope we did) pay down more than 130 million in debt for mths 3 and 4 of this year. We're now half way through month 5 and there's no obvious sign of POO coming down imminently. Press reports suggest Putin's health is deteriorating and associated video/images appear to support that. I guess you never know when this will all be finished, but it might not be the long slog that we imagine it has to be. Every mont that passes, ENQ becomes stronger and stronger. FTSE 250 is calling, debt is falling, judging from the research of some of you guys production is likely increasing or will do in the near future. All looks good to me, but as I've said before, sometimes when I've been confident, I've been wrong. If this were to drop back significantly, I'd increase my position significantly (depending up the reason; accounting errors give me the heebie gebbies and will normally stop me investing).
Good Idea romaron,
I just went to do the same. Putting a Sell order in on my Lloyds share dealing platform for my first tranche too ! However when I put in the 59.90p sell price it then asked me for a time period on the sell order. It offered me 30,60 or 90 days.
Well I was thinking of bananaJoe and feeling confident about what deal that AB could doing at this time, so I clicked on the 30 days !
In fact if you look back in history AB has always been working on some deal. Golden Eagle, Bentley, Magnus, Kraken etc etc . Only this time I would ask - Is he buying or selling ? Enquest is 12 years old, AB is getting older. Maybe he is tempted to spend his time with the "AB Foundation" on a full time basis, working as a philanthropist. 60p anyone ?
Just put in an order to sell my first tranche at 59.90. I don't want Juan spoiling my market.
Welcome aboard BTFATH1,
Just having a bit of a laugh. The Banana put me in the mood for it !
Maybe try making a bit more than a penny profit before you sell again. Ops Update next week then ?
Am I Jenny or is that Spindok ? I guess it must be spin as James Hargreaves invented the 'Spinning Jenny'.
Lol because we are like stupid ladies. What a funny joke.
Welcome aboard
Right I’m in with my first tranche at 34.19p could not resist.
Keep my 32.75p order but it may be a bit ambitious:-)
Have a good afternoon Jenny and mrsc
When BTFATH1 finally buys ENQ it will probably be time to sell- 60p maybe? The buy price keeps rising…
Buy The F@@king All Time High
No janine although I think affordable housing is a great scheme to get the youngsters on the ladder.
Very fortunate that we have purchased a copper stone 4 bedroom cottage with a lovely garden.
Thanks for the kind words though janine :-)
Chilts - I'm still staying stron g in Energy. A recession isn't imminent - the US economic data (both lagging and coincidental) is still pretty strong, and I'm sure we'll see a trading bounce soon. Dow/S&P - open down big and maybe a close higher today? Right now, costs are a big issue for almost every company and that's why you're seeing even the likes of Walmart and Target getting hammered this week. You'd think these companies would hold up best in a downturn, but we're living in a set of unique generational cost pressure circumstances. Even staples weren't spared from the sell-off yesterday.
Profit-taking has happened and will keep happening for oil shares, but a recession isn't imminent and hence they will bounce. I do have my eyes and ears firmly focused on what the US data is telling me. I don't pay too much attention to UK/European data - that's just noise.
BTFATH1,
Did you get Social Housing ?
I understand that they do it in certain villages now.
I have set an order at 32.75p for starters MRC. Going to cash out my ted baker shares soon with an 65% profit don’t worry about me sunshine :-)
Moving house soon to a nice village locally so I could do with enq taking off when I get my buy actioned though :-)
Chilting - your analysis is so lazy.
You are right for once romaron.
This is an evil market at the moment and energy shares are one of the few bright spots, but even they are not immune from recession - also they have further to fall from year highs.
It may be a good time to take profit on energy, but I guess Warren Buffet cannot be wrong?
While not directly relelvant to oil stock, the DOWs latest leg down gives a good idea of wider market sentiment and for the moment it seems to confirm the bear case. Long term it doesn't change ENQ's turnaround story, and so far we're holding up reasonably well.
Sounds to me like you're nursing a sick portfolio Stanley. I think cash or gilts are the investments for you. Warren Buffet seems to disagree with you. Now, who should I go with?
Yup, EnQuest. They built it and are still coming. Get in whilst entry is cheap.
Some market analysts think the FED haven't been strong enough re US interest rates and want a 0.75% increase or even a 1% rise - that could be enough to induce a recession - Brent would probably test around the $92 mark and maybe vulnerable to further reductions.
With most energy shares at the top of their year range, logically they would fall back on soured sentiment - ENQ could be exception because of their reduced debt levels.
...and of course there is the superior EROIE of hydrocarbons. You keep the cheapest and cull the invasive luxury energy.
Sometimes referred to as renewables, unicorn dust or fusion in a jar. Hydrocarbons beat them hands down in price and EROIE.
I would be worried though if I was invested up to my eyeballs in "renewables".
"One consequence of that will be a drop in demand for energy - Brent will fall back and ease inflationary pressure." Right now at these Brent prices, demand isn't and the oil shares will still be in an upward trajectory. Another 15 dollars or so higher and staying - then that's a different story. That's why I don't really want oil prices anywhere around 125 - a global recession, however mild that is, would then be a certainty.
At $110 brent, oil companies can still make a lot of money and won't be vulnerable to a pull back.
I think financial markets actually want a short shallow recession now to combat inflation.
One consequence of that will be a drop in demand for energy - Brent will fall back and ease inflationary pressure.
Energy shares are therefore vulnerable to a pull back.
Thanks, Tim.
Hi e121
I was told by IR that we'd get an update as usual sometime in May.
Br.
Morning Mod/R - I certainly don't sit in the 'higher pruces are coming and that these are good for oil shares' camp. This couldn't be true for anything more than a few days/weeks, IMO. Maybe another 10 bucks tops may be the ceiling of what the global economy can take, with all of the other inflationary pressures still in play.
With the recent S&P 500 tech stock price action, I'd imagine that tech would be a lot lower than 28% weighting and energy could be getting closer to the 5% weighting - remember that was below 2% in late 2020. But, this is still lower than the 12% weighting seen early in the 2010s. Energy still has a way to go, but this rebalancing will take time to work through. What we definitely don't need is a global recession induced by high oil prices to upset this equation.
Did anyone on this board check with IR if there's an ops update incoming?
Hi M - I don't know about you but I spend more on energy than I do on tech. And then there's food which I still need and that is heavily reliant on energy. They have a much more robust approach towards "wokeness" in the US and even the mighty BlackRock has to listen.
Tech is 28% of the S&P 500 whilst energy is a tiny sector of <4%.
This from a Guardian article 9 March 2022:
“In addition, BlackRock has long stated that energy firms play an important role in the global economy and in a successful transition.
We expect to remain long-term investors in carbon-intensive sectors. We do not pursue broad divestment from sectors and industries as a policy."
In November, the treasurers of 15 US states – responsible for more than $600bn in funds – wrote an open letter to the banking industry in which they threatened to withdraw from financial institutions that boycott fossil fuel companies.
A host of other banks have also issued reassurances to Texas, after it implemented a law requiring financial institutions to certify that they do not boycott energy companies in order to remain eligible to do business with the state.
Barclays, Citigroup, UBS and Wells Fargo were among 39 institutions that made the pledge.
Climate change has become a mantra. They use the same responses as they do in religion. Religion is accepted by many and fiercely protected and proseltized. To date no God has ever been proven and there are thousands [of Gods] followed throughout the world.
*some big money has been made by those who sold tech and bought energy. I have no tech now and the last I sold to buy energy earlier this year means I made 90% on that particular trade. I don't expect to make that kind of money regularly but it does highlight what the more active could be making.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512977-oil-is-headed-higher-if-this-continues