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I still think the elephant in the room is the German portion of The Cinovec ore body currently owned by Bacanora/Solarworld. KC always said that the cost of production was much higher than Cinovec because the tungsten/tin credits are way less. Even so, much higher than $4,000 is say $6,000 ..... still very viable for local supply. We must not forget that Lithium hydroxide is not safe to transport long distances ( and it loses its chemical integrity; you need to ship carbonate and have local conversion to hydroxide = secondary plant = $$$$) ....... I would
Love it to come under our ownership.
Musk said solid state is dead. It's taken Tesla 8yrs to get to this point. It's not just battery power it's also being able to produce at a certain price point. If you saw the presentation they are producing the 4680 now but need a lot of work to increase yield. So starting again with solid state is a no no. With the mining there must be some secret sauce to this as it sounds to simple???
They will all eventually come !!!!
Hedge Fund Bets on Lithium Miner After Big Electric Vehicle Win
Our Headline : " Hedge Funds Bet on Lithium Miner After Big Off take agreement with Volkswagen " and Kc sort of mentions 3 to six months .
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/hedge-fund-bets-on-lithium-miner-after-big-electric-vehicle-win
By 2025, Volkswagen Group plans to have 150 GWh of annual battery demand . That is 120,000 tonnes of Lithium fellas
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/25/volkswagen-id-3-wins-design-awards-volkswagen-battery-plans-slowly-progress/
Iaintittle: Thanks so very much for the two links. Particularly interesting to get Benchmark's take on the Tesla Battery Day.
1) How do you build the supply-chain for an expectation of 3 TeraWatts (3 Trillion Watts= 3,000,000,000,000) by 2030?
2) Musk talked a lot about vertical integration, but confused message about supply chain.
3) Some interesting quotes from the Benchmark Team; these are exact quotes:
a) "Everything is to do with Lithium as they stated."
b) "Lithium ion batteries are going to be THE core platform technology for EVs for the next ten years. The message was stuck to Li ion batteries." (Musk made no mention of solid-state batteries).
c) " Very engineering-heavy presentation. Surprised that not a single supply-chain manager or commercial manager or even someone from government relations on stage."
d) "It will force the other vehicle companies, the other battery companies, to also make changes themselves."
e) "Don't underestimate this company. But, it's less about the promises made by Tesla than the inherent limitations of physics when it comes to Lithium ion batteries, when it comes to mining, that will dictate what the future will hold."
In parallel discussions with other (non-Benchmark) commentators, there was a general sense of disbelief in Musk's claim that Tesla had discovered an easy way to extract pure Lithium from the clay deposits of Nevada, where, he claims, Tesla has made a 10,000 acre reconnaissance (Federal land). General consensus that Musk was oversimplifying the task of Lithium extraction with just washing through with table salt. These commentators and Benchmark were of the same mind that some aspects of Musk's presentation about Lithium extraction and processing was the most confusing part of the Tesla presentation.
One vital question posed (often repeated on this Board) is where is all the Lithium going to come from. From the present day 167 battery plants, worldwide, about 180 GigaWatts/year is produced. Huge question about how that can be expanded to 3 TeraWatts/year by 2030 from Tesla alone !! General view is that worldwide target of 2.7 TeraWatts/year by 2030 will be challenging.
So, some skepticism about Musk's ambition to become a completely vertically integrated company, particularly from the upstream mining point-of-view. Very comforting to know that Musk is absolutely committed to the Lithium ion battery, not solid-state. Musk made a point of wanting to shorten supply-chains. It will be absolutely fascinating to watch as Tesla's Berlin Giga-factory builds to production; to watch the movements of the large German motor manufacturers; to watch the EU high command's objectives in securing vital mineral resources. Good luck everybody!
So, first things first, this is the Tesla battery day presentation from Tuesday.... 'accelerating the time to sustainable energy'
'Terawatt is the new gigawatt.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=del35OVFKMM
And this is the Benchmark Mineral discussion 'reaction to Tesla battery day'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuuBt9ScUuE
Both are around 90- minutes long.
The very brief upshot is that Tesla think that they can cut current battery costs by 50%+ and are forecasting producing 3 Terawatts of batteries (combined grid and ev) by 2030. This is a staggering 15x Benchmarks estimation......
As we all thought, this revolution will be huge. Happy viewing.