The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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100,000 Euros was stated in the last presentation (thats about £85k).
https://youtu.be/a50MXSRBi44?t=3245
Just wondering is EKF still getting payments from its russian division ? .... i believe it was 70 k a month ,
Trading update expected end of January or first week of February. should include update on new facility.
It cut my message off.
Less than 3% (dont write that with a less than symbol).
Dowgate wealth are also buyers here. I really enjoyed this video where he talks about EKF (and many other interesting stocks). His comments re a buy out here too. I linked to the EKF chapter but worth a listen to it all. He also mentioned PMI which is yielding around 9% per anum, so you are paid to wait for a recovery there, where as we have had the booty here.
https://youtu.be/DXfrakc20cs?t=2641
Might add to EKF in SIPP if it falls below 30. Im sure it will re rate soon, but on news. I think EKF is probably fair price currently.
SB, the securities lending is for them. Their voting rights are 518374 extra due to them borrowing stock.
Usually in this situation they are going to sell (some of their 12%) and hedge the drop by a CFD or similar.
It is probably lion trust selling I would say. They are 'doing a Dartron' (LOL) and taking needed gains to deploy elsewhere.
Just like Dartron they still have exposure here. Mine is in my SIPP. I sold my income holding to buy PMI as you probably know from Twitter, that goes ex dividend next week.
I think the rise could be another buyer, who has not had to report (
Just as we start to make some positive progress Liontrust appear to have lent 500K shares to shorters who have sold them into the market in last 48 hours reducing share price by 10%. Whilst Liontrusts 500K shares get repaid at the strike price the rest of their significant 12% holding gets hammered. Unless its a play to lower the price to allow them or others to purchase more shares below the recently increasing price. It remains a difficult market for PI's when this type of institutional behaviour exists. Dartron - appears your +19% exit was very well timed. SB
HNY all. I increased my position here pre-Xmas - good timing for once. I’m still under water but have lowered my overall average and as noted previously I’m hopeful ekf will have a decent 2024 - core business is still growing at 10% and if they can secure some decent enzyme custom then we should see a gradual increase in overall positive sentiment - noting we have already started that in the last few weeks. SB
Liontrust up to 12% (+1%) in case you missed it.
Good to see higher volumes this week with 2mln on Monday and 1.3mln yesterday, are we finally seeing the insto fund managers returning to EKF? With any luck the lows are now behind us and with the new Fermentation facility open for business, we could finally be getting back on the front foot with regard to positive news flow, albeit still early days.
...well said SB, I very much agree the company needs to steadily rebuild their credibility with the market and in time demonstrate that investment in the "state of the art" fermentation facility offers a better return than say returning the cash windfall from Covid to shareholders by way of a special dividend. Having spent some time researching the LS/Fermentation opportunity out there, I'm optimistic they'll have a high-quality pipeline of premium OEMs to help grow the business with, but execution and management are key, as ever. Regarding FCF, the PoC business will be steadily growing its contribution on that front. Now that the investment in the facility is complete, the company should be able to breathe easy and maintain its debt-free operations. I also hear (indirectly) that the post-update meetings with insto fund managers have largely gone well and that some new and old funds are returning to the cap table, albeit in relatively small sizes looking at the recent daily volumes.
Stability, discipline and growth are all keywords going forward, here's hoping they deliver on all three.
Nb, the current valuation of 2xFY24 EV/Sales vs peer group 4.4x gives plenty of room for upside.
I’m trying to look forward here as the rear view mirror is too painful. The 25th site opening in October may be accompanied with some details on the commercial sales being signed up. I think baines will be very conservative for the foreseeable future - his credibility is now on the line as well as his legacy for his previous work at ekf. I suspect if it was up to him the dividend (£5.4m) would have been cancelled or reduced for 2023 - but the commitment was already there. Next year may be different - the company needs to rebuild its cash position and avoid any debt imo. Good news some cash is trickling out of Russia. Hopefully 2024 sees growth and stability return with a disciplined board. SB
Hi Vigneron, I agree that they need to meet the deadlines to restore credibility.
I have linked to 2 snippets from the presentation, which are their answers to your points.
I am hoping that the announcement of the facility, and the revenues expected from it this year might serve as a catalyst for the share price - even if it gains enough to cover the ex dividend drop, ill be happy. I think we should start to see upgrades here, there was a lot of talk of margin improvement in the presentation, which I would hope is fairly easy to implement. I think the bottom is in on EKF (as long as they deliver their stated intentions). Chart shows a cup and handle, cup-18th July to 5th Oct. Handle now playing out with volume drying up, so tea leaves also agree there might be a modest re-rate.
Chart with mark up.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kgeT7mt7/
They have the money to pay the dividend and expect EOY cash balance to be 2.4M
https://youtu.be/a50MXSRBi44?t=1231
Fermentation facility to open Oct 25th, looking forward to announcing at the end of October..
https://youtu.be/a50MXSRBi44?t=1734
We can but hope.
The update on the enzyme fermentation capacity is expected circa mid November. That was the commitment on the last shareholder presentation.
They need to hit this target to restore credibility.
They need 6.7 million to pay the dividend, so they need to be confident that cash inflows is strong.
This goes ExD in 3 weeks for 1.2p. If you can buy now for around 28.5 you are getting over a 4% yield in 3 weeks. Judging from the results call, things should start to improve here, once the Fermentators are online. Hopefully there is some SP growth as well over the next few months, so currently a good proposition I feel.
Looking forward our core business is in a very strong position, with continued growth momentum seen in our Point-of-Care division and in sales of β-HB. With the capacity expansion at our South Bend facility nearing completion, and already having received our first purchase order and we look forward to delivering strong growth in enzyme fermentation revenues in 2024.
I liked the strategy going forward, of focussing on their core businesses, concentrating on getting right what they currently have. However, it is astounding that things have been allowed to get so bad, they mention running loss making businesses etc, previously considering low margin work outside of their competence. Facilities run down. Sounds like the board room was empty last year. I shall continue to hold, and wait and see how the next TU looks, as to whether I increase my position here.
Its on youtube now:
https://youtu.be/a50MXSRBi44?t=38
"Baines looked very uncomfortable in the call."
You have talked me in to watching it!
My thoughts on the call.
Baines looked very uncomfortable in the call. It seems pressure has been put on him to assume the CEO position, until the company has executed it's strategy. That could be 2- 3 years.
There was admission that the enzyme expansion program did not go well. It has cost the company extra capex and project costs. I think it is over budget by circa 7m on a 9m forecast.
Baines didn't agree with the observation that this was not a highly complex project. On reflection I can understand why, as for a small company like EKF, this is probably complex relative to what they have done before.
A strange comment was made "perhaps we should have had another PM". Well not really imo, a PM with experience would have been better.
It seems the delay is down to planning to commission the new equipment and bring on stream each independently.
It is now discovered that all new equipment has to be commissioned and brought on stream together. That's a project planning error.
Also it seems the target market is now pharma focus and not pharma plus food etc. Again in a program like this, you would expect all this to be in the project charter and signed off. Not sure whether this was a recent change or not clearly defined up front.
I hope to hey got the message over the concerns over project execution. It appears we will know in about 6 weeks.
They have gone extremely pessimistic on the forecasts, clearly because of the delays they had to declare. That's just about acceptable for 2023, but 2024 is far to cautious.
Cash looks ok, but really depends on them hitting targets, cutting costs and what planned dividends they award.
The FD is a former colleague of Baines from a previous company, both live in the Cardiff area, where EKF have their HQ.
Just read the CFO RNS, I see he has worked with Baines previously at BBI. Before my time, cant find any charts etc. Does make me wonder under what circumstances he got the job. He already has 85,000 EKF shares, so no need to dish out any Freebies.
Good to see the usual suspects in the discussion and the newcomers with the identical consensus, almost as if they had cribbed the post.
Only just read the announcements today.
On the CFO, I am glad we finally have someone on board, but less than enthusiastic about the appointee. I could say more but I wont.
As for the progress on the enzyme business, the current situation, with another delay was entirely predictable based on the previous updates. It spells out a company that don't have any capability to manage programs.
To quote from the update:
"The process of validation and verification had not been sufficiently factored into current timescales for installed equipment to become fully operational"
That indicates a clear failure in managing this program of work, to commission new equipment and develop processes that underpin the winning of new enzyme sales.
Whilst Baines stays on as exec Chair, he is not going to solve this.
Managing change is not easy, although this expansion of the enzyme business is low on the complexity scale. It just appears that they just don't have the capability.
Unless they fix this, they will continue to incur time and costs penalties.
I am still invested, but hanging on by a thread.
It is a poor update, but after the initial nasty drop this morning, the sharp recovery in the share price already underway is interesting. Is it telling us that the less committed holders have been flushed out, and we're finally at the bottom? I hope so.
Oh well, I guess it can go lower. Another poor update, Baines is staying. Fortunately, my holding is v small here, so scope to buy more when this turns. Im sure they are running it in to the ground on purpose. Could still see an offer with HY results?
Sorry Darton i should have said where I saw your purchase - X!. I reckon it would need to be 40/45p+ for any serious talks here - and even then I'm not sure Mills would go for that. As for SRC - I'm there as well - lots of potential but they need to look at bringing debt down and a dividend as opposed to ongoing acquisition trail imo. SB
Ahh, threw me for a bit, but yes I posted on social media didnt I. Yes I wonder if they are holding off replacing management if they are negotiating a sale. I hope so, a quick hit would do me. What price would be agreeable for the II's here? 175M? (37p)?
Also bought SRC.
I saw your purchase notification Dartron - and your rationale for getting back in. Welcome back! I wouldn’t be surprised at either outcome given the lack of any update on the appointment of a permanent leadership team. Update next week apparently….SB