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Fallen significantly since Oct / Nov ...hence the sentiment.
Scooby, just a bit of profit taking. Ready for the next rise.
Risk off day and EAH gets sold off by PIs.
Intrinsically, the company is in excellent shape with china pork prices doing well and RoW performing strongly.
A genuine mulitbagger from these levels.
https://www.porkbusiness.com/news/industry/china-pork-imports-set-rise-amid-questions-around-hog-herd-size
China Pork Imports Set to Rise Amid Questions Around Hog Herd Size
(Reuters)
By REUTERS November 14, 2022
China is set to increase pork imports in the coming months, industry participants said, after losses for farmers last year in the world's top pork producer caused a reduction in hog output that appears larger than official data suggests.
Pork is by far China's favorite meat and surging prices have driven up inflation in the world's second-largest economy at a time of slowing growth. The country produces about half of the world's output and fluctuations there influence hog and meat prices globally.
Chinese pork prices surged in October by 51.8% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said, even as third-quarter output rose by 0.7% from a year earlier.
Pork prices will stay high in 2023 because of the lower supply, according to 10 industry analysts, farmers, and feed and genetics suppliers, though they cautioned demand may be impacted by China's COVID measures.
"We all need to watch China; we expect increased sales due to their pork shortfall," said Jim Long, chief executive at Canada's Genesus Inc, a supplier of breeding pigs to China, in a note last week.
Live hog prices
2021, according to data from Shanghai JC Intelligence Co Ltd, and while dropping since then they remain above historical averages.
The government has blamed farmers holding pigs back from slaughter to fatten them up more for the higher prices, but analysts and experts say there has been a substantial supply reduction since last winter.
However, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has repeatedly said breeding capacity is sufficient.
"The elimination of sow production capacity may be larger than the current market imagined," said Guan Yilin, analyst at Cofco Futures, in a note last month.
Plunging pork demand and high feed costs from June 2021 until July this year caused farmers to incur losses of as much as 600 yuan per hog. Farmers sold off herds, culled more sows than normal or slowed production by not mating females to curb their losses.
Genesus believes the sow liquidation is greater than reported, estimating the sow herd shrank by between 6 million and 8 million heads.
With fewer pigs born at the end of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the number of slaughter-ready hogs dropped by this summer, said an executive at one of China's top producers.
The agriculture ministry says China had 44.6 million sows in September 2021, declining to 41.85 million by March 2022 before rising to more than 43 million by September.
"The reported total number of sows is inflated," said Zou Zhihong, China manager of U.S. farm equipment supplier Hog Slat Inc.
"A lot of barns are still empty," he said.
Thanks for the pig report, doubt I’ll be subscribing though. Director buy today gives a bit more support.
Interesting looking at your posts Scooby. I think I’ll head over to the Pebble bb.
My kind of night time reading :)
2023 - Looking good for EAH - very good.
https://www.pig-world.co.uk/news/china-predicted-to-up-import-volumes-as-pig-herd-is-hit-by-heavy-losses.html
ECO Animal Health Group plc (AIM: EAH), a leader in the development, registration and marketing of pharmaceutical products for global animal health markets, conducted a live presentation for investors covering the company's Interim Results.
David Hallas, CEO, and Christopher Wilks, CFO ran through investors through the highlights of the period which included growth in all markets excluding China. The team discussed the well documented revenue decline in China but also the recovery in pork prices since April, as well as ongoing progress with the R&D pipeline. Management also answered a range of investor questions.
If you missed the live event, the full video has been divided into chapters for ease of viewing:
0:00:12 Introduction & Highlights
0:03:20 Financial Highlights and revenue analysis
0:13:52 Research & Development / Admin expenses
0:15:50 EBITDA bridge / balance sheet / cashflow
0:20:34 China: pork pricing
0:21:58 ESG update / R&D update
0:25:04 Operational improvements / Outlook & Conclusion
0:29:07 Questions & Answers
Link to video - https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/investor-presentation-interimresults-28nov2022
All looking good here.
The presentation is excellent for those who would like to gain an insight into EAH's recovery.
In short, all the bad news has been shoved / taken place into March 22 and interims results just ended (i.e. prior year provisions, overstocking in China and low pork prices).
Ahead, we are looking forward to -
- increased prices in China + sustained margins
- recovery in China
- RoW flying - impressive growth
- R and D pipeline building up impressively.
- Trends for product demand - all looking up, e.g. increase of population / meat producers becoming more professional in their production
The CFO hinted that the historical H1 vs H2 weighting is 45:55.
He alluded to his expectation that H2 will be considerably stronger given that he stated that it is likely that the weighting for 2022-23 year will be 40:60.
Level 2, James
What’s the L2 scooby?
Interesting presentation this morning. Upturn in China underway with good numbers in October and November. Inventories unwinding which will help cash flow.
The owner has a cement factory and needed to shift the cement as the Chinese property sector has hit the skids. Having that many pigs in close confinement is a recipe for disease spread and mutation... They will need all the vaccinations that they can get and in due course will increase the need for vaccines against the diseases that mutate so may be a positive for EAH even if it is a terrible idea.
Interesting article
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/25/chinas-26-storey-pig-skyscraper-ready-to-produce-1-million-pigs-a-year
Must have confidence of future prospective prices of pork in China.
They're buys.
II bought them on the cheap when the ask was 83.8p, II got them for 82p+
Was watching it on L2.
Thereafter, the SP came to life, which was consistent with what my friend's broker was telling him - there was a lot of shares on the ask previously.
Let's hope pigs fly...
Reasonable volume today. I wonder if they’re ‘buys’ or ‘sells’.
I’m in for a scooby snack as well. Looked like the company was due an upturn on chart and fundamentals. I’m interested in their viral treatment research for longer term gains. Avian bird flu, another Chinese export, causing massive distress in farmed and wild birds.
Good to have you on board, VL. It felt like I was performing my soliloquy these past few days.
Onwards and upwards Scooby.
II's purchase at a slight discount cleared the airways -
Ready for a move up - IMO - bowing up
25-Nov-22 11:51:25 82.25 90,000 Sell* 80.00 85.00 74.03k O
25-Nov-22 11:40:25 82.00 186,223 Sell* 80.00 85.00 152.70k O
d i r ectors talk i n terviews.
https://www._______ com/eco-animal-health-delivering-on-earnings-and-rd-progress-video/4121091476
Excellent prospect to 3-4 bag from here IMO:
- China's prices are excellent (China's biz is roughly 1/3 of the overall group's). So pig producers will be back to ordering to protect their pigs from ASF.
- ROW is growing fast.
- Excellent pipeline of R and D - EAH is a serious TO target at these prices. Decra, possibly?
- All time low - surely this should have been factored in already for anyone who has been tracking the pig prices in China.
- pork prices in China have been only dampened partially by Covid restrictions. Government has resorted to releasing stocks of frozen pork to subdue prices. This augurs well for sustained demand for EAH's products in China.
In saying that, there are cons:
- inflationary pressures. However, surely these would be offset by increased demand in China and potential price rises.
- R and D expenses not to be capitalised, which infers higher expenses into P and L.
Overall, with ROW continued to grow, China pork prices now c$30 RMB per kg, thus China biz should gradually return to pre-Covid levels, these should more than offset inflationary pressures. At these levels, IMO, the only way is up. DYOR.
Looking very good - info is delayed but the trend is evident -
https://www.pig333.com/markets_and_prices/china_106/
These are all buys. Yet sp has not moved.
ECO Animal Health Group plc (AIM: EAH), a leader in the development, registration and marketing of pharmaceutical products for global animal health markets, is pleased to confirm that David Hallas, CEO, and Christopher Wilks, CFO, will be conducting a live presentation covering the company's Interim Results.
The online presentation will take place on Monday 28th November at 10.00am.
This event is open to all existing and potential shareholders and registration is free. Questions can be submitted during the presentation and will be addressed at the end of it.
Sign up to register here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/ecoanimalhealth-resultspresentation-28nov2022