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Yes, terrific post - thank you for going to so much trouble
Fantastic post hunsen
Going back to Alkindi, I previously looked at USA, UK, China and Europe.
The rest of the world would be around 85,000 additional CAH cases in kids.
Cash and equivalents is now £34m (20p per share), this has been earmarked for the following;
- funding the Phase 3 trial in the US for Efmody - this should start in Q4 2021
- extension of Efmody for AI which is a much larger opportunity
- development of DITEST
These studies take time, I'm sure the institutional investors are applying pressure to the board to control costs and deliver the expectation (in this update) that the current cash balance will fund DNL to profitability.
The current market cap of £100.5m, is £32m LESS than DNLs peak valuation in 2018. If all things were equal, the share price today should be 78.5p - but things are far from equal, DNL
- has twice as much cash as in 2018 (20 pence per share to fund development)
- DNL has Alkindi approved in all major markets and it is generating revenue
- has Efmody approved in Europe and the UK and will start generating revenues 4 x faster than Alkindi
- has the funding to get Efmody approved in the US
- has DITEST in the pipeline
None of the above was in place in 2018.
I'm not so good at sum-of-the-parts valuations, but this company appears to be exceptional value.
ALB
Hi Scored, All,
I will try to post some thoughts on progress during the day today, although I do need to go out shortly and will resume later.
Keeping things in perspective, this statement looks back by up to 14 months, i.e. trading from 30th June 2020 to 30th June 2021. Think of where we were then in terms of covid and lockdowns. We actually passed "freedom day" after this period - and STILL my GP waiting room is in the car-park under a small tent!
Remember also that Alkindi was only approved by the US within this time (30th September 2020), the challenge is to switch patients from the existing treatments to Sprinkle, in a pandemic.
As a rare disease, I estimate there are around 10,000 cases in the US amongst kids, perhaps 1,500 in the UK, 25,000 in China and 22,000 in Europe (plus the rest of the world). I estimate the annual revenue per child (Alkindi) is around £3,500, so revenue would suggest there could be around 700 patients - so we have accessed just 1.2% of the market in the above countries. Providing patient outcomes continue to be positive, awareness of Alkindi should grow very fast amongst GP's and parents.
The statement said children born with CAH are going straight onto Alkindi, I believe this will be around 600 new patients per year generating revenue of £2m per year (compounding), so in 5 years this will be £10m from births alone. Add GP's switching patients and the 2022 forecast revenue of £11.2m doesn't look unrealistic.
Remember - the above is only Alkindi.
Chronocort / Efmody has only been approved for sale for ONE MONTH during the reporting period. Sales are expected from Q3 and CAH in adult is a far larger market and the outcomes on Efmody are much for patients.
Think logically, we had £2.4m in sales from Alkindi (in a PART year), and Alkindi is used to the age of 17, then Efmody should generate sales 4 times faster (assuming average life expectancy in these patients of 68 years).
PLUS managing the condition in adults is more complex and Efmody provides a key advantage over the competition in supressing harmful androgens.
So, if my ASSUMPTIONS are close, then Efmody should generate at least £9.6m in sales during the first year, which means Alkindi should easily push DNL through the £11.2m revenue forecast for 2022.
I will try to post more later.
ALB