The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Thanks JR - that's a good read! Pretty much sums up my own views re 4D (albeit with the added Oliveira factor!).
I shall be holding for sure.
JR2
Read that article before.
It -or similar articles-should be read by all investors to wake some up to the reality of the stockmarket. And to potential reasons behind manipulation and high-volatility shares. Reasons other than a takeover too. So much is-as the article asserts-about getting the p/i to release their shares cheaply! One has to be careful when holding steadfastly to a plummeting share that one is not about to lose the lot..Afren/Ami/Circle/Carillion etc. But if the company is not in financial difficulty one’s shares should maybe be seen as an investment as in this case. A stock can fall and never recover for all sorts of reasons( see PFC and the effects of SFO re.fraud upon business. £9 a few years ago. Around £1 now. Huge company. Or Tulliw oil. Or so many companies which never recovered.
But knowing the MM games as well as one can is very empowering. As well as finding out about forced sellers etc.
P/i’s are cannon fodder for the market. We have to fight for any profit as we are the last to know things. Insider info is real. Pre-RNS share action is obvious ..as the article states.
Doesn’t get much more volatile than 4D on the London Stock Exchange. Avct at times. Or Ncyt/Avct/SNG/SLP…all Pinnochio stocks. On the end of a string.
4D is funded until end 2022. Options offered to Oxford at 85p. Multiple trials. News promised around now…who knows.
Responding to a distressed or manipulative seller.
One to leave.
Or buy.
( No I am not paid to say this. Wish I was).
Both very fair and balanced comments /commentaries. Sep/Oct are late summer/autumn . October is certainly post Sep.22nd end of summertime.
We finish summer officially next week.
Trouble with pharmas is that they have to get everything exactly right before statistical significance and it all has to be by the book.
I have no idea why instis are not jumping in at this price. Although there have been a big sequence of buys as Oliveira sells.
One huge positive is that 4D is not a one-hit wonder like forte. Now that was a real gamble. Would I have put $ 50m into a gamble?? Only if I were a billionaire( and then not).
I hate waiting for RNS’s. Unless you already know the date( like bopd for an oilie) they can disappoint and erode share value or go the other way if the news is stupendous ( see SNG July last year with its interferon b covid treatment trials. I did ok for a change.)
The s/p has slumped so much that it can only take news to revive it. Or the wave of Mr. Mm’s hand having purchased enough on the cheap).
Waiting for an 0518 RNS promised around this time feels the same. Uncertain. And as you say..markets hate uncertainty. Pharmas by their nature are uncertain!
At least 4D has several pipelines…
Any takeover interest for 4d would most likely come from an industry player or someone who understands the pharma and biotech sector very well. I'd view such interest as a very positive development as it would be a (further) endorsement of 4D's IP, know-how and work in general. There seems to be a persistent seller at the moment but the question is why aren't specialist or other IIs jumping to fill the gap and buy shares at such low prices? It's not as if 4D hasn't been exposed to the world of heavyweight investors! The mist around the data of the main 0518 trial is not helping at all. Market doesn't normally like that uncertainty at least not to that extent. If we see further strong evidence that 0518 works then surely it would outweigh and have much more impact on the share price than other factors. But, instead, we get some hints and bits of information upon which it is difficult to draw conclusions. I increasingly think that this is because the situation re 4D's main trial is quite fluid and there are no conclusive data that can be presented yet. Hence it might be that the focus on patients with the biomarker is a natural consequence of that. However, that's speculation and at this stage in the day, we shouldn't have to speculate. Hoping for news very soon.
I don’t see the sense in anyone taking this company over until we see the results of Part B. And while the delays to reporting these results may be frustrating, it is entirely within the norm for companies operating in this sector, and particularly during a pandemic. In short, it’s a bit of a waste of time speculating on anything - or blaming management - until we get the Part B results and have a better steer on the value of the primary asset. Hopefully, we will be seeing those results soon - the latest guidance was late summer/autumn.
Worrying trend in London Stock market is the common neglect of shareholders. Especially in AIM. They are seen as irrelevant or cash cows when appropriate.
The neglect of this stock’s price is sadly now common. It is the same in Ncyt.
And used to be the same in the AIM oilie I hold. But since the CEO just died suddenly….they have upped the PR as the share plummeted.
I find it hard to believe that 4D now sits at 69p. It was 94p 3 weeks ago.I was almost breakeven.
Unless I am wrong nothing materially has changed except a lot of selling…which of course sends the price down.
But there has to be a limit beyond which directors do not let the price fall. Hostile takeovers do happen and they only own 10% of the shares. Are they complacent or is the rosk of a takeover real? I constantly read talk on these boards of takeovers but have yet to experience one.
At the moment I just feel the pain of a near 30% loss ( on top of Ncyt’s parallel neglect).
I remember when directors would release RNS’s to reassure the market. Not so long ago. Only 6 or 7 years. Now I just don’t see it.
But I do see a lot of suffering private investors in neglected shares. FWIW.
This may not resonate with anyone .
But shareholders used to be considered as owning a portion of the company. Seems to me they are too often not considered at all..unless for an AGM or EGM quora.
Or Rights Issue!
Am hoping Oxford’s financing ( also US) will allow 4D to bear fruit. SNG and Orph and AVCT seem stable but Ncyt and 4D are seriously under pressure.
How far down can Oliviera’s selling drive this and is the threat of a hostile takeover a real possibility??
Good post CB. Agree 100%. Worrying trend that private equity, particularly from over the pond keeps moving in on anything decent. Not just cheap public listed companies. Tech startups also increasingly are private money. Fewer regulations but also fewer opportunities for small shareholders.
I don't know what price Oliveira bought his Forte shares at but he owned 10% of a $500m market cap company that is now valued at less than $50m. The only thing keeping their shares afloat is the crazy Gamestop rampers trying to tell people to pump their money into a company that no longer has any product. (Their Stocktwits page is a real madhouse)
We don't have any idea of his financial arrangements but he has seen a good part of his wealth wiped out overnight. If his Forte stock was collateral for loans then no doubt he is having to source funds from elsewhere to remain solvent.
A big part of what 4D is and does is the scientists like Imke Mulder. Anyone that wants to take the company over would have to ensure that they remain on board as you can't just replace them with other scientists. And I imagine they have relationships with the BOD such that if the BOD were against a TO then the scientists wouldn't be happy and could take their expertise elsewhere.
Oliveira is dumping. What do you expect the BOD to do? Ask him nicely not to do it. And if the 0518 readout looks good he will just dump into any rise. The chances are the market will scoff at the results anyway as most PIs will be unlikely to tell if they are good or bad as was the case when the Blautix results were released.
We're roughly £130m market cap now, and I think if the SP goes much lower (say £100m) we're vulnerable to a takeover.
Merck have a $16bn blockbuster drug in Keytruda, we have highly promising PII trials with it. Early stages of MRX0518 have had a positive response in 40% of end of line patients, one seeing a tumour reduction of >70%. The potential value there is enormous.
Add to that the thousands of patents & wider pipeline in development, including Blautix whjch is knocking in the door of a P3 trial hopefully, and that IP alone must be of interest to 4D's US competitors.
The biggest concern for me is takeover by private equity, who could act fast, and then seek to carve us up to big pharma or competitors, or fund the more promising pipelines in partnership with big pharma themselves. I know it's risky and drugs can take years to develop, but UK stocks are cheap (4D seems ludicrously cheap), and there's been an increasing trend in recent years of Private Equity making more and more investments in early stage pharma, despite the obvious risks, and it's a record year for Private Equity investment in the UK stockmarket which is generally unloved.
Some may think it far fetched, but prior to the Oliveira TR1, I'd had concerns some city collusion might have been driving down the share price to that end.
Hence, for me, 4D Directors need to focus much more on the SP than they're doing and give us better updates on the open trials. All well and good chatting to the FDA about accelerated approval, but forget the current SP at your peril.
Who knows, if they gave a positive Keytruda update now, Oliveira may decide to keep his remaining stake?
I'm very open to a contrary view on this though, some reassurance would be music to my ears!
Does this current situation leave 4D vulnerable to a takeover (hostile or otherwise)?