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I think everyone is obliged to have their own opinion, and outlook, but again, I repeat, I for one will be remaining strongly with Capita, as again, I strongly believe they have been overly hammered in the aftermath that is covid. We will all see what the future holds, but at the current price, for me at least, I still see significant upside and will be watching closely over the next months. If anyone is thinking to the contrary, they are entitled to their view, but just please don’t draw conclusion and turn it miraculously into fact, as the only person you’re fooling is yourself.
Time will tell who took the ‘decision at the right time’
The problem is that too many are presenting their opinion as a fact or a sure fire prediction of the future.
No one knows. There is staggering ignorance on this board. Many do not understand that around 50% of stock movement is quants/bots set to implement when a combination of scenarios occur.
Moreover, not withstanding that people here think that by ramping or deramping this stock it is going to impact the share price. It shows a bewildering lack of basic understanding of 1. how much money is needed to move share price 2. Who is on this board.
Do they think that serious investors with millions are going to be in this chat forum waiting for the moment some jumped up kid saying “This baby is going to the moon. 60 by next week. Buy now” to jump in and purchase lots of stock?
I actually feel sorry for some people here. Clearly they have invested on dad’s pocket money in a stock because either they saw it appear one day in the Risers list or because they looked at a long term graph and assumed what went down must go up.
I could make a similar argument for derampers.
You can spot either with language they employ. They use words such as “I have faith in this stock” or “I don’t have belief in this stock”. Faith is an emotion and belief without sure evidence is merely an extension of faith. Faith has no place in investing.
Well, if I'm wrong, I'll stand corrected. However, the timing of all things happening are all too convenient to put the blame on just one thing. Especially when every sensible investors are pulling out most of their investments just right before covid and a company like Capita which is under restructuring definitely do not provide sense of security to any investors. So, may be I am an idiot for not believing what is published is the reason for it to slump all the way down to post covid level. On the bright side, Capita have what they don't before covid and the fall you were mentioning, sales and contracts. Also if you compare the size of their company and job cuts due to Covid against other companies, 200 seems nothing. Also,.. undrawn credits available. If the company is fighting for survival, Covid is the best reason to cut more jobs. If you are a CEO, would you actually keep all your employees and let the whole organisation go under administration or would you rather lose weight to stay afloat? Unless they started drawings those undrawn credits or going under loan schemes from the government, I wouldn't worry too much. Well, still all we are doing here is voicing out an opinion. I'm not Johnathan Lewis. You're not either. We'll just have to enjoy the ride, wait and see what will happen in a month time. Yes, I do have the tendancy to not agree with what media is publishing. May be I am a complete idiot. Or may be I know smth what others don't. Afterall we are all sitting behind a screen and typing on a keyboard saying things what we think might happen. So,.... take a chill pill and don't let anyone get on your nerves.
I have a substantial investment in Capita so I remember the circumstances very well. I am not talking about a fall from 180p in December to 150p in February, I am talking about a fall from 127p to 73p on the 5th March (43%). The FTSE fell 2% on the same day so there was something specific related to Capita that caused that fall.
To quote the news from that date "Capita shares slumped on Thursday as the outsourcer said it swung to a loss in 2019 and that it would have to spend more than initially expected on it's restructuring. Net debt rose to £790m from £466m. John Lewis said it is requiring more investment than we had expected in 2018".
This is the reason for the fall, the impact of the virus was later.
To say that it was already gaining momentum but it has been levelled by Covid is completely incorrect.
I suggest you get your facts right before accusing me of waffle.
OWL, When do you presume covid started to say Capita fell before covid? To me covid was since February and Capita was at 150p at the start of Feb. If you are saying the fall from 180p in december to 150p in Feb, I think this is a bit of a grey area. Can't just waffle it to suit a person's opinion. To me, the company was already gaining a bit of a momentum. but it has been levelled by Covid. However, because of Covid itself, Capita is being awarded with government contracts which basically soften their fall in a way. Then again, does not matter for what reason they are selling Eclipse and ESS, this improves their balance sheet as well and the awarded contracts stay the same for them. They are not losing it. So if we are talking about common sense, no one here is expecting for Capita to get back to 150p like some people are ramping. Not everyone here is brainless. All we are look at is 80p or 1£ at very best and this is a common sense for me. I know not everyone will share the same view with me and everyone has their own opinions and have the right to have opinion as well. Unless Jonathan Lewis came to this share chat to post smth very confidential, I'd stick with my shares and wait for the "common sense" value of 80-100p.
Dreamachine, I know that market sentiment drives a lot of SP values but I was referring specifically to Capita.
If you had done your research you would know that Capita fell substantially before Covid and the reason for it.
A quote from Mr Buffet:
“The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down.”
It’s market sentiment driving alot of sp values right now - the markets hate uncertainty, and sp values reduce to reflect this, then rise back after the uncertainty diminishes and we move into a more stable world. Unfortunately it’s too easy to simply blame a company’s management for reduced sp right now. Yes, that is the case in some instances, but you just need to look at the cliff edge spike down that 90% of companies experienced with the onset of covid. Another example IPF - they provide a rather positive update, but the sp is held back - again, sentiment. I could go on, but to me, and many others able to invest at these massive lows in the market, it presents a rare opportunity to purchase at a significant discount. Look back in 12 months and think we’ll all see a different picture. Everyone to their own, but I certainly see the current period as quite exciting and opportune, unless of course you held significant stock before covid, and rode the cliff edge down, then it’s a different case of course.
Shell is due to the oil price. Ocado has gone up because more people are buying groceries online. What is the reason for Capita?
The fact that it has dropped further than the ftse is nothing to do with the management per se. Many good companies have fallen mote than the ftse and many others have increased more than the ftse. That’s the stickmarket I’m afraid. Just take a couple of examples, for instance Shell and Ocado. Does that make sense now?
So why has the share price fallen 74% when the market has only fallen 19%? If it wasn't the fault of the management then whose fault was it?
You can’t just throw out comments like that, blaming this on the management. I would say CPI is fairing quite well, but I would say due a rerate upwards as I believe it has been unduly held back. But we will all see, as we emerge from the covid chaos. Have patience.
I am invested here but before the terrible update which I could not predict.
Please let me know which parts of my statement are incorrect?
Oh no, Owls, are you another one?
It does amaze me how a so many of posters have got this basic detail wrong.
"The last 6 months for FTSE and CPI, the trend lines are almost identical".
The FTSE is down 19%. CPI is down 74%. This is not "almost identical".
I hope any further analysis these "investors" do is better but I doubt it.
The reason CPI has performed so badly is the incompetence of the management not the virus. If they have been so bad in the past why would you expect them to perform any better in the future?
Patesy - i think ramping or de-ramping does make a differnce on some of the real dog-poo AIM shares with mcap £10-20M the bigger the share the less effect I would summise...
I do find it absolutely hilarious where people come onto these boards with their ramping , deramping comments . Do they really think it makes a any difference on a company with a market cap of over 700Mill FFS
I agree with what you say procel, but sadly 95% of the chat on these boards is agenda driven, ie force up or down as we dont live in a perfect world sadly ! Some boards are very bad - have a look at UKOG its practically sunni versus shia muslim levels of conflict !
I normally watch from the touchline and read with great amusement the back and forth banter regularly taking place on this thread, each and everyone with their own agenda. The more excitable element are particularly good value for money. I tend to keep my powder dry and refrain from sharing my robust manifesto, largely because I doubt anyone really cares.
However, I would like to point out the glaring obvious for those unwilling to look beyond their noses. Without exception, all shares have followed a similar trend since the FTSE dropped off the proverbial cliff in early March. Most have continued to follow that trend with a few exceptions. CPI have tracked the FTSE, no argument.
All it takes is to compare the last 6 months for FTSE and CPI, the trend lines are almost identical with CPI perhaps being slightly behind. A cursory glance at any FTSE250 share price shows a similar trend.
So what's my point? Only this......all shares have fallen massively since March and are gradually making their way back up to a percentage of what they had been before Covid hit. Ramping, De-ramping will go on to suit the poster's best interests so read the posts, take in what is being said but don't take an amateur investor's word as gospel. No one, I repeat, NO ONE, has a crystal ball and knows how shares will pan out. If they did they wouldn't be on here, they'd be on their own island counting their millions.