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@Gman, I think we're currently 5p below what we should be, but hey!, that's the nature of the market... it don't do straight lines. I had such a great time watching it go into the 50s last time, I can't wait for that euphoria again. GL all.
I'm not even sure what I'm expecting to see in the update, if it's a really good update, I won't begrudge CPI giving them a bonus and a week's holiday abroad somewhere, as well as a celebratory night out on the tiles.
few 400K shares gone through today, half expecting to see short close a little more ?
Good posts and debate here guys
I did say I thought it would be Wednesday before we start to see the rise, but would be great to hold 46p today then maybe 48p by end of week (maybe even touch 50p during the week)
Anyway, I have made no secret that I believed JL would achieve the turnaround - hoping the new CFO wanted the Dec update to really enforce that this is a flash look at what the March FY results will be
CPI moves quickly when it moves and most of us are expecting decent enough results backing up H1.
IIs we buying significant amounts of CPI at these levels only a few months ago - 50-55p isnt what they (nor most of us) are looking for - my trading pot is looking for 60p, my LTH money needs to see 75p before deciding timescales as to when I will expect to see 120p-150p
GLA however you choose to make your money
DYOR pls
I was told near the year end. Before that. Property company in China on the verge of default, possible interest rate rises. Increase in cases of the new variant. Anything could happen.
It is not bad timing and IR should have known the macro environment that you will be presenting into come this time of the year. Everyone knew that this Christmas period was going to be difficult with both seasonal flu and Covid. Last year there was a lock-down post Christmas if you recall. In some ways Omicron has a positive that it provides an excuse to mandate booster shots for the entire population, something that they could not have justified with the Delta variant. It also may be positive by inoculating the population against the milder though more virulent new strain, which is less deadly than the Delta. It may have a side effect of delaying a potential interest rate rise. Looking at the BBC website though it seems like each day they try to out do themselves in how much they can scare readers, when all KPIs show that the current situation is vastly better than last year.
However back to the point being that IR would have known that the macro environment would be difficult. With the slow news flow here I do hope that the delay in timing from last year (10th Nov) is to allow them to pull a rabbit out of the hat to pay back the support from PIs and LTHs here, and to finally put us into a new trading range ffs
An alternative view, maybe certain II's have had the nod on the interims hence the SP holding up pretty well during this covid sell off, just a thought
I think a December update in 2 weeks with the Christmas run up is really bad timing. I suspect ( but I hope I’m wrong!) that nothing much will happen & we’ll all be then waiting for the year end statement.
We're expecting an update by end of next week at latest. Here is what IR (recently) told me:
"We are planning to have a pre-close trading update in mid-December, with the date yet to be confirmed."
Maybe they'll provide the date this week, with the actual update next week - just a guess.
Capitalizer
Buy at today's price. I sell at 10pc profit easy money really no sweat...
Capitalizer, I have had this share for 5 years. It has mainly gone one-way, and it wasnt up.
Capitalizer - that's the way to do it, only buy a share you'd be happy to hold forever.
I've constantly got to remind myself that, possibly should just let the professionals do it and buy managed funds & ITs!
Maybe I'll just stop looking at the CPI SP and come back in 3 years to see if my holding has grown.
The best money I've made over the years has come from holding stocks for 5 years plus. It goes up, it goes down, nothing happens for a year, it goes down, it goes up ... but over 5 years it goes up a lot. That's how I see this tortoise.
But yeah .... we're definitely overdue a burst of up to the next oscillation zone .... 55 to 70 would be nice.
I think everyone is aware of the macro concerns and I hade made apologies to this. BTW there was a great report on Panorama on inflation on the BBC last night. It is just that some would have hoped that on the day that Serco posted positive results saying it expected its addressable market to grow around 2% to 3% per year over the medium-term, with their revenue growth being twice that, that there would have been some interest gathering on Capita which has yet to report. We will just have to see what happens here, and who is left listening once IR finally deigns to start talking.
Issue is, the sentiment is soo negative. Cases are rising. And I expect it to rise exponentially as they are in South Africa. Cases literally doubled in 24 hours. In addition. Possible interest rate rises. Holiday season coming up where liquidity could dry up...dow overpriced and looks like it's pulling back. It's pulling ftse down
Around the year end dude.
Do we know the date when the announcement is?
Would agree that there are probably a few stale PIs frankly fed up with the IR here by now. With only 2 RNS since the Half Year results in August on the sale of speciality insurance businesses and Secure Solutions and Services, to say the news flow has been 'quiet' or 'slow' would be indeed flattering.
In many ways a lot of the headline figures have already been released in previous RNS. For example:
a) Expected revenue: year on growth expected as H1 Revenue was 13% higher so if the same run rate was achieved it would suggest revenue of £3,856.768
2) Debt consolidation: £600m+ worth of divestments already our of £700m target. So with the divestments of Insurance services etc. above since the August trading statement you would hope that net debt (IFRS 16) was reduced further from £894.4m to sub £800m.
3) Free cash flow expected in 2022. As adjusted profit before tax1 increased by £56.4m to £45.3m in August update (H1 2020: loss £11.1m), we should be expecting healthy profits.
4) Total Contract Value won for year would be circa £3bn+ in H1
So the question is why aren't the shorts closing yet and why is the market not giving any anticipated benefit. To put it in perspective the sp has been higher at points last year, with higher debt pre ESS sale and Navy Contract. So macro concerns aside, most would have expected the sp to be higher than here by this point.
It would be interesting to see whether there is a surprise, and if that is the reason why the Trading Update is a full month later than last year. Tim Weller, Chief Financial Officer, joined the CPI in May 2021 notably with no handover period from the last. I do hope so to justify LTHs and general PIs faith here as I suspect many though quiet are now stale and they'll have a mental barrier to hold past the 50p to 55p range. At some point a recovery stock needs to recover.
Buying under 45 is my strategy 10 pc jumps does it gla
I bought back in at sub 44 so sitting tight now I think for the next couple of weeks (unless we hit 50 in a hurry (in which case I think I'll sell up and buy in the dip that will inevitably happen between now and next news). Got to day trade a little to grab those small couple of extra percents, to make this share any fun.
well flattered to deceive today - but now we are maybe 2 weeks from the update - we are only a touch above our new floor
Lets get confirmation of H2 performance then a nice santa rally into year end - we were over 50p this time last year when we were nowhere near as strong as we are now
Im hoping that from next wednesday we will see a few consistent green days leading up to those results to take us to 50p then results to take us closer to 60p
Few LTHs I know are fed up of waiting and will get out early 50s, but remember were 55p a few weeks ago - lets get confirmation that the new contracts (inc the massive Royal Navy) are profitable as expected, and with 6ths of these in H2 compared to 3 mths in H1 and we should be confirming good cash generation
March update for FY accounts, we then need discussion about restating dividend because this is what Capita was and the grey haired love a dividend! (not me although I am grey!!)
GLA pls DYOR