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Friday Fomo the last hour usually on any share that has news due and perhaps
next week with 7am Monday in the frame
Copl should be a FOMOF frenzy if nothing in the morning, as the perhaps is having
said in the next week , an update MUST be released very soon to appease the market
rules gestapo as we are ""Main Market"", the rules do apply lol
:))
Fantastic post as always guys - wish I knew as much as your guys to contribute more..... thanks for your time ...GLA
PS - Hope that red dot appears soon on the RNS fed up of hitting that refresh button...:0)
Yes Fridays are good and for some reason, last 40 mins it normally goes crazy.
£20k buy just popped up from an hour ago.
Friday's are often very good for COPL. Let's see
Less than an hour to push, guess we are heading into another FOMO Friday
and WNWTBOOTOTW in nothing lands tomorrow GLA
:))
Great posts hopingforbags
FUTURE
Structured finance , no plans to increase share base beyond Atomic sellers allocation
Atomic production 5000 bopd rising to 15,000 bopd could be higher (or lower) 2021/22
Shorecan targeting high impact wells running at 5000 to 20,000 bopd EACH
Art , still in talks with others
IF and as always best laid plans etc, IF all that falls into place and we remain around 10 Billion shares
that conservative £340m MC / 3.4p per share not a big ask
Have seen many an exploration oiler, hit a discovery to run 1500-2500 bopd and reach 400M+ Market
Cap's , those with more challenging targets, like the 7p and 10p that have been mentioned not that
much of a stretch on success GLA
:))
Even simpler equation, sp and No of shares of no interest unless a trader looking at the
short term lol
Long term focus should always be value and Market Capital which drives the SP
Our share base lets round it up to 10b shares makes every 1p on the share price
£100m Market Value current MC £34m
Deal for Atomic at todays oil prices not when deal commenced is worth £200m
on 31m barrels reserves based value
Shorecan joins the party its target across license 1-2 billion barrels of oil/gas eq
current projections based on initial of 800m barrels making copl 15% around
120m barrels or 4 x the size of Atomic (200x 4 £800m )
Other assets like Shorecan currently not factored in either
CEO has declared his intent for the future by ditching short term wonga lenders like RGO and
preparing to grow the company with higher quality finance and headroom $20m to spare
all falls into place and that is always an IF , next year Atomic could be chugging 15kbopd and
we may have 100% of that operation, Shorecan could have drilled a couple of wells chugging
that much EACH
The company sticks to the plan and puts the confetti dilution behind it and remains with 10b
share base, 10 bags from now and that's still only £340m market cap for assets that in time
could and ceo has stated still on the prowl for additions which could make copls assets value
and reserves worth in the $ multi billions
we could double shares again to 20b and make that conservative £340m MC at 1.7p a share
It is ALWAYS about achievable Market valuation, the market never give full value ever, hence
when offers come in , unless company distressed, are always considerably higher than current
share price a realistic value attributed and the take over company will still be getting a bargain
in the case of oilers usually based on established reserves in the ground NOT the current oil price
for e.g. a few years back when Brent flying at $165 a barrel, the valuations of explorers where at
$4 - $12 a barrel based on country , regional risk etc etc
The baseline has not changed much now $65 a barrel and Atomic in the safe end states, deal done at
$2.18 on an NVP 10% rated $7.5 a barrel asset (deal a steal literally)
can our assets wear a high share base easily, not comparing to BP but they never bothered to keep the
numbers down still BP has 18 Billion shares in issue and would still be worth £15-20 a share as they
where before the gulf of Mexico spill and litigation
as said long term it is always about the market value that can be achieved on success, short term as a
company builds and survives with dodgy finance companies manipulating the SP anything can and
does happen
COPL has paid its dues , gone through the death spiral finance mill, been swallowed up and spat out
several times and has now come out the other side FORGET THE PAST
Simple equation. SP x no. Shares = MC
Expecting a big print later - then should have a good go at 0.4p...
Days are ticking down
Exactly - HSBC's buy in is a massive confidence boost to the direction this is heading in. Up up and away....like the incline bopd prodiction. Can't believe the infrastructure is already there to delivered millions and millions of clean profit
HSBC wouldn’t have bought in here without exhaustive research. They must be assured that the deal will complete.
I don't believe AM would be targeting such a lowly price at all.
Think about it, hardly 'a target' to strive for at 0.7.
It's a massive deal for a small company.
I can see this jumping to 1.5p on signing.
0.7p is possibly the target price that AM is seeking for Atomic Senior. It then gives 3% of the company to the old geezer, which will then become a v.substantial figure, when 100%WI is acquired and of when AM gets to start production on the 15% of OPL.
Double your estimate.. if there is No update on 100%WI
Double again, IF there is.
I think you're trying to over analyse and making too many assumptions.
Warrants can be exercised gradually throughout this year.
Placings overhang finished, when last Friday saw almost 1B shares traded, and all the free float then acquired by HNW’s.
The MM’s will find it difficult to regulate the sp & the mc, once this starts moving, a lot.
Then risks wild swings, if the warrants are converted when this is at say, 2p. The extra 20% OS would then prompt large swing south. Suspect that AM wants to prevent that, hence presentation. Suspect also he may then do the same to take us up to the next tier, after the decks are cleared.
As per December;
4.8B OS @0.25p & mc. C.£12M.
c. 100% dilution, then saw placing for 4.5B OS
The sp then stayed the same (floated diwn to 0.22’ish)
The new mc was then £25B.
Similar will now happen here, now that an extended date used.
HNW’s & ii’s then soaking up any spare, but free float reducing.
hi @dougb189 - how will the mc rise if the sp remains the same and the number of shares increase?
4.5B placings, of which imo 2.5B have been rinsed.
A fair few are still retained. Free float is not as big as thought.
After the placings, then come the warrants.
The extended date is possibly to see these converted.
The sp will remain low at 0.35, but the mc will rise 20/25%
I thought that most of placings were rinsed through already.
??
Yep awaiting an RNS - announcement of the new presentation and/or/soon followed by audit complete finance ready for drawdown on completion date.
Of course there will be intermediate RNS,
everyone recognising this is undervalued
& the MM’s are keeping it that way.
Will be a similar play when the 100% dilution was passed thru,
The MM’s are awaiting 2.25B @0.26 to be converted,
The sp will remain as is, but the mc will rise 20%. ish