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Good morning everyone,
Nice work Tiburn,
when you look at other oilers in similar situations very few of them have fudamentals in the same ballpark as ours,
various circumstances and sentiments are contributing to where we are now.
But at some point the balance of the scales will tip in our favour,
The ever increasing production and reserves and self financing debt will eventually be recognised,
then prospect will become more obvious and secure,at some point the FOMO factor will kick in,
who knows what news will set it off.
in the mean time got a nice little top up this morning .
GLA.
Prices at the pump at an all time high
Starting to look Blueish
Roty
I agree, keep COPL is my point aswell - as I outlined, COPL have everything and more that this 10 bagger share of the year does, (regardless of its past performance when ROSE )
COPL have two aspects to sort out
1 - debt - proving they can repay
2 - comms
both are in their power now frankly
- The key aspect needing work? communications and presentation of the company, increasing confidence and transparency, establishing trust this is a new Company era.
If COPL do not do this = ammunition for the shorters, SP reduction, market low perception, domino effect as PI sell out , causing others to do so - the only action that may stop this decline is news - constantly.
It is in COPL control.
At one stage I owned just over 2% of the old ZPHR, when it was ROSE. Sold out with a massive loss. Lesson learnt there. Hold on to these COPL shares.
Got LSE share of the year award 2021 - SP growth from 0.4 to 7.3p in one year
1.3B shares in issue
No debt
Board own 12% of shares - COPL circa 5% in board and family estate
They state they can use $16 m in past US tax loss to offset tax burden - do COPL inherit Atomic tax loss and can use? any Accountant views welcome.
Zephyr operate a two tier system - gain non operator WI % stakes on low risk high return plays in Rocky Mountains region and own acreage in Utah with an exploration campaign ongoing targetting over 1 Billion barrel OIP.
The non operator revenue funds the exploration play combined with a raise in Mar 2021 for $10m, now fully funded.
They have just completed a horizontal hydraulic stimulation well for 0.8m length - critically they advised planning and progress in detail every step of the way by RNS - COPL did a few lines on FD with no detail in a catch all RNS Sep 1st , some reference made in interview but another comms opp lost for SP growth, shareholder confidence and interest.
https://wp-zephyr-energy-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/21220309/ZPHR.LSE_.Sep2121.FINAL2_.pdf
The only have 509 bopd current prod revenue yet have bagged multiple times.
Critical to this is communications and shareholder confidence in their actions, transparency.
they also have great upside potential but scale still unknown or recovery rate, a long way to go for them - COPL has found their oil and we know already its probabaly double what they had with higher recovery rate
BFU and CC - P2 recovery at 50% from 25% = 62m
FD same again implied = total P2 recoverable reserves approaching 120m
SUMMARY
- COPL have done extemely well securing the Atomic asset with superb upside, incline curve prod
- SWP are obviously very efficient and know their asset very well, MF has been a great success, FD a discovery due to their management and expertise, COPL provide funds, enable gas bullet supply, input to the development plan - its a very good partnership and more should be made of it in PR terms
- Oil found - funds to develop available - low costs
- Debt is a huge drag anchor, but needed to buy the asset - its reduction in a lender sweep of bank account each month from Mar 2022 has to be COPL priority to clear asap - perhaps renegotiated
- CUDA WI potenital is huge and has to be gained in some form, we know its a target, AM has perhaps $18m in the bank by now, assume debt resolution part of any deal, this may be sufficient plus some accordian facility
- FD could be massive - may be the focus of exploration spend
- COPL operationally are as well positioned as could have been asked for with substantial upside, low opex, the hedged butane position is a coup =$840k saved p/m for MF costs
- The key aspect needing work? communications and presentation of the company, increasing confidence and transparency, establishing trust this is a new Company era.