Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Seingred, tester. Hope you guys are keeping well.
Yep , absolutely agree with both your points, it is hard to gauge at times and comparables sometimes if anything cause more confusion yet give you indications of projections of things pan out.
I have taken a small portion here of 20k shares since Jim bought another load, my previous holding was over 150k shares , for me regardless what happens I just feel like MC has had it very tough and has not let out how difficult it’s actually been in Nicaragua.
I don’t wana point the finger at MC because I feel he’s doing his best, the only reason I have decided to come back for a second bite although a small one is simply a hedge against the markets.
Gold will
Probably spike higher here, I don’t think it will be as high as some thing but nevertheless I feel it has a Floor put in that’s around $1550-1650.
Could see news here soon. It’s due and good looking good at the moment might just see a deal get struck.
One final point if I may - believe me, I know its boring waiting for the completion of land purchases and mine scheduling studies and financing to be announced.. but..
Would you rather Mark announces all that to the market now, with the gold price at $1800 or when the gold price has hit all time highs and possibly even the psychologically huge price point of $2000... in 5-6 months or so.. :-0
I know which one I would rather see, and what I think will have the most impact on the SP!
regards,
T123
Munch - I agree that we should see the ultimate project value at NPV when the mine starts producing, however I think Pure gold is an interesting comparison on AIM at the moment.
They listed at 35p in June 2019 and the SP bumped along around 40p until April this year. They are due for first production in Q4 2020 - they have 2.4Moz resource albeit higher grade and in a better jurisdiction. They are an underground mine initially targeting 800tpd with $800 AISC.
Since April, their SP has tripled from 40p to 125p. 8 months before first gold production.
My point is that if MC/CNR announces the mine build / financing by the end of this year, with a timeframe to first production of 12 months, could we see the same rerating starting to happen by March/April next year, assuming the mine build happens to schedule? Could CNR go from 40p to 120p prior to the mine starting to produce - I certainly think so). Pure gold have a market cap of £485Million just now without currently producing any gold! The CNR SP would be £3 roughly for the same market cap, assuming shares stay at 120M or so.
There are other variables of course - different jurisdiction (Pure gold in Canada is much safer etc) - but if the price of gold does what everyone is saying i.e heads to $2500 by Q2 next year.. What will junior mining share prices do?
I think CNR could go for 120koz pa initially, then permit the underground resource in parallel for a quick uplift to 170koz pa. At $2500 gold that would be around $300M a year pre tax cashflow.
Im not arguing with you at all - just comparing other junior AIM scenarios as to what might happen in advance of the actual mine starting production..
regards,
T123
Munch ,shg also pulled off a cheap deal for 1 m plus high grade ozs .A lot depends where gold heads over the next year or two imo . There are various conflicting examples to use .personally I am more cautious with cnr valuation than many here until production and a production date but still reckon sub 40 p is a decent price to be in at . 40- 70 p is a reasonable return target short term ,anything more a nice bonus for me . I remember you being quizzing about my hum buys around 15/16 p .I think they may really move over the next couple of years .
Of course bargains get snapped up first but then what when producers are awash with cash ? There is a bubble waiting to happen imo and best be prepared to take advantage of it .
Will come through when the mine is built.
General takeover wouldn’t suffice here and I came across this report. Also shows that HUM recently acquired a good tiled with roughly 1.2m oz for Peanuts also.
Yo me this indicates why B2 hokd didn’t take over confit because they just didn’t value it as much as MC does.
Also shows why MC has been trying to drill to get the resource up to his projected 5m oz.
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A number of advanced juniors with cheap valuations are being ‘scoped out and scooped up’ by the bigger players.
Ghana-based mine developer Azumah Resources (ASX:AZM) was taken out by its ~1.1-million-ounce (moz) Wa project joint venture partner Ibaera Capital early this year for just $30m.
In April, brand new miner West African Resources (ASX:WAF) paid ~$70m for the neighbouring Toega 1.1moz gold deposit in a deal with Canadian miner B2Gold.
In June, +5moz Cardinal Resources (ASX:CDV) — also in Ghana — recommended a takeover offer from China’s Shandong Gold Mining that values it at about $300m.
The 60c all-cash offer represented a 39.9 per cent premium to the company’s 20-day volume weighted average price and a 31.1 per cent premium to Russian gold miner Nord Gold SE’s takeover proposal in March.
Then, $1.76bn gold miner Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) announced a deal to acquire Exore Resources (ASX:ERX) in an all-share deal that values the Côte d’Ivoire explorer at $59.8m.
This acquisition blitz is bound to continue, with other advanced explorers like Tietto Minerals (ASX:TIE) in Côte d’Ivoire or Oklo Resources (ASX:OKU) in Mali almost certainly in the crosshairs.
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If and when the land is secured and some form of toll or mine production commences I think CNR will have legs to go much much guy there because the real gold oitx with value start at 5m oz.