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No I dont think you are, and I think its coming out soon..
https://www.lse.co.uk/blogs/expert/condor-gold-cnr-under-the-radar-junior-gold-play-with-significant-upside-is-a-safe-port-of-call.html
The Board is in the process of updating reports with a more complete account of the La India project, reflecting an increase in total permitted open pit mineral resources awarded in May. Those studies will enable the Board to choose between various production options, including financing with minimal shareholder dilution and phasing the extraction of gold from the three pits.
The release of updated figures, coupled with bullish sentiment in the gold market, is likely to drive the share price up. La India is shaping up to be a “high quality project with a high rate of return,” says investment analyst John Cornford. “Condor Gold is still rating far behind that of similar gold miners in North America, says Cornford, but the market is starting to recognise its value”.
https://masterinvestor-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/masterinvestor.co.uk/latest/condor-gold-unlocking-value/amp/
regards
T123
All the figures are going to have to get redone before the banks will lend on the project. They will need to see the business case / profitability etc. It will be a part of the mine schedule studies which we know are underway.
Whether thats all announced to the market as part of the RNS for the plant deposit/purchase or whether it has to wait until the financing is signed on the dotted line, I dont know tbh.
But I cant see how the figures are not going to be spectacular. Oil is now $40 a barrel compared to $100 when the study was done. Higher grades from the permitted pits. 2nd hand plant compared to new. The IRR will be simply phenomenal..
regards
T123
BD - I completely agree. I have no idea why it hasn't been done and published far and wide to demonstrate how profitable this is going to be. It can't be that difficult.
I would like to think we will have a number of RNS prior to any mention of the fund raise which will significantly re-rate our SP, i.e. Land purchase complete, Mill purchase complete, drill results. I know there was talk yesterday on the BB regarding toll milling and possibly not going to happen. Well it was still being mentioned on the latest presentation on 6th Oct. Lets see if it is still on the slides for the 10th Nov Global Mining Symposium.
I'm just concerned what the shareprice will be prior to the fundraise. Might struggle at this rate to get the shareprice over 50p for that raise to become less dilutive.
CF - At the risk of annoying the board again with my incessant optimism.. ;-)
Personally I believe that we will hear of a funding decision on the project by the end of 2020, possibly even by end of November, early December. Thats only 6 weeks - 2 months away. The market is still looking at the old PFS number for CAPEX of $110 million and worrying about excessive dilution to a £50M company from funding that. Fair enough. If it was all funded via equity, that would require about 200 million shares to be issued. That would be huge. But we all know MC and JM are big shareholders here and dont want to see anywhere near that kind of dilution. Plus gold companies are now seeing a rush from lenders eager to offer them cash at cheap interest rates, looking for a decent return in a low yield environment.
So we already know that bank / gold loans can fund the project by at least 70/30 debt to equity. The question then becomes, what will it take in CAPEX to get the mine to production? The $110M capex figure for 2800tpd, 100kozpa plant was for brand new equipment and included 10% contingency. We already know that MC has been looking at a second hand mill for the past 6 months. The reduction in cost of "pre-loved" equipment compared to all new is quite considerable. e.g around 30% of the cost of new..
So that CAPEX number to build a 120koz pa plant suddenly comes in at $40-50M, not $110M from the PFS. When thats announced to the market what will happen? And as I have been saying repeatedly, 30% equity of even $50M is only $15M or £12M. So we could well see only 20% dilution here at 50p a share, not 200%! Looking further down the line, any expansion to 170koz from underground can be funded out of the abundant cashflow, so no further dilution. This project is going to be a cash machine for whoever eventually owns/runs it..
Now in this market, when its announced that Condor can achieve 120koz gold production in 2 years at $2000 gold with $700 AISC, at only 20% dilution and total CAPEX spend of only $50M?!! With only $35M debt compared to $150M cashflow a year for ten years.. Do the maths on that bad boy...
regards,
T123
WG - probably didn't explain the post properly. I know we haven't 100% of the land yet. I was getting at Mark pushing on with the project without boxing off the whole land and how that might affect our shareprice.
CF - we haven't got 100% of the land yet. Hopefully that is coming v soon, when it does it'll be RNS'd and I think most here expect there will then be a market reaction. It should unlock and unblock progress on the whole programme.
cant see a toll deal ..to me its like a bigger dilution..than share deal..
I could well be wrong, but I hoped having 100% of the land would bump our shareprice up to then allow reduced dilution when the fund raise occurs.
Mark said we have enough money for the next 6 months. I hope our shareprice is higher by then, but then look at the shareprice over the last 12 months. I know we'll be closer to production, but I wonder whether our shareprice will be much higher by the time mark agrees the funding.
I'm happy holding, not selling anytime soon. The more I think of it, the more I'd rather see us go into production.
I guess the only thing to bump up the shareprice pre fundraise would be a toll deal. Could still be done without 100% of the land potentially.
tester it is a big issue...if we end up going down the compulsory purchase root what are the consequences we certainly dont want to upset the locals b2 gold had lots of problems hopefully it can be a negotiated settlement and that is why the last purchases will be transformational news
I seem to be swimming against the tide here, but I'm actually getting more and more excited about the possibility of actually going the distance and getting into 120-170k oz production with minimal dilution and a massive district still to explore, while remaining 100% independant. Gold going North of $2000/oz would just be the icing on the cake.
Yes, I know it's taking a while, but seriously, do your own calculations on the profit CNR could be making and tell me what the problem is. I'm serious - tell me. Do you really think the remaining 7% of land will stop or even delay production? Do you think dilution will wipe out MCap gains? Do you think Nic will descend into civil war? Gold price crash? If not those things, then what? You're bored of waiting? Well fine, go chase rainbows somewhere else. No bad feelings and good luck.
Just because Condor is down today (along with the rest of the market mind you) is really no reason to feel any differently than before (and if you didn't feel happy with your investment before, then as I've said before, you really ought to sell up and try something different).
£1 a share takeover would be very disapointing at this point. Not because it's "only" 150% gain from here and not because many of us have spent 10 years here already, but because it really isn't much compared to the potential that can be achieved in just a couple of years from now. TBH, I rather think that an offer won't come anyway, but if it does, consider what you'd be leaving on the table if you go for a £1 a share offer or less. Opportunities like this don't come around that often, so when they do, better hold on with both hands.
cambells - if you listen again to the message from the video, I think MC is emphasizing that the remaining 7% of land to be purchased is just not an issue, either for the government or other "entities". I believe those entities are probably local banks / gold royalty companies who are funding the plant purchase. Hence, Mark now knows that the deposit can be confidently placed on the plant, and the news released to the market that "the project goes" as they say in Nicaragua ;-)
regards
T123
what else could mark do the land sale is causing fustration... did every body think he should do nothing..looks like at least a couple of months for that to be sorted...so instead of twiddling his thumb his announced studies that have to be completed or no mine will be built ...as for share price it wasnt anything major released to the stockmarket just another step...more countries going into total lockdown a majority of stocks and shares will drop ...hopefully we will get news out when there is no fear left in this market and covid is controlled
Looking at the posts on here and ADVFN its clear we are all getting frustrated with the two steps forward and two steps back movements in the share price.
I know I have been positive towards Mark and his integrity, however after yesterdays RNS and the twitter interview I believe he feels under pressure to deliver (and quickly) hence the Fast track message.
I can't disagree with various posters that a £1 offer would be extremely tempting as of today and I believe Mark knows this. Yes he will get rewarded on any sale above £1 however I am sure after his time and effort (as well as personal risk and investment) he truly believes we are worth much more than £1 a share particularly as we experiencing the early stages of a gold bull market.
I agree there is uncertainty and there is pressure on Mark to deliver on funding, however he has every incentive to deliver!!
TBH If he doesn't I anticipate shareholder uproar as there is no way we would accept him getting various warrants and share options to maintain his % shareholding whilst diluting to the detriment of long term shareholders.
Keep the faith, 39p must be a bargain as long as we are not diluted at this price!!