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My gut here is someone still has a lot of stock to clear. There is definately a big downward pressure on price here. Sell order or fund selling a few thousand shares a day? I think 65p could be possible short term unless someone snaps up a lot of stock. Personally I would be waiting for price to bottom out first. This is going to be really tough for existing shareholders if it continues like this.
Hi Buddy', I am fully loaded in Cenkos now and moving in not Redde based upon its revenue growth, profit, cash and do I yields. Interested in your thoughts if you could give it the once over. Cheers and Thank you in advance
Yes looks like one user on that site (ADV...) is picking up on a lot of Cenkos news. However I wonder if the share price moves here are more down to people selling down stakes. So you let share drift to 74p and then wait for the buyers to pour in. Then rinse and repeat. At present 50p seems a long way off. I am sure Cenkos would be talking to all major shareholders reassuring them of the future of Cenkos. Hargreaves Hale may have merely been adjusting their stake. I think someone mention another stakeholder clearing down. The share has dipped nearly 5 p since last week. There is a trade that matches the 9.02am drop. No trade for the 9.08AM drop. Small volumes but big movements? Does CNKS have a secondary market?? I checked ISDX but no trading there. http://www.cenkos.com/recent-transactions/transactions-2016 They have had no placing over 350m this year so far. A lot of the 24 placings this year have been below 10m. The largest for 350m happened this month. Guessing the larger IPO have bigger payouts for CNKS. The firm is still making a profit. So a question of what the SP should be here. Could be big movements on TU here if the share is over sold. Assuming revenue quickly recovers.
I have noticed a lot of buying of this share over the last couple of weeks, No chance of 50p?but Plenty of Good news. keep e'm coming. nice Christmas pressy on the way.
many thanks for your helpful & informative replies.
I think you are correct I_J l- Divi ikely to be 1p to 1.5p this year, currently not a great deal of new floats since Brexit but solid repeat NOMAD etc business still. Also the new Singy venture and other careful global expansions could bode well if profitable looking ahead. Plus there is always a foreign bank that might want to take them over too and anything under 100p make them cheap IMO. I am sure we haven't heard the last of Cenkos they are run by a shrewd bunch holistically [did get sloppy on a couple of areas last year but internal processes have been tightened and checked now] So we should see solid rises that accelerate but needs a little patience I think. Also as shares are held by staff and institutions generally not a lot in free float day to day so expect wild SP swings as you correctly point out.
any ideas at what percentage the true divi is on this share? surely its not 21%?!
First time apology is always the hardest. It's called a calculator, really basic maths.. Let's hope they won't pair us together in the same ward, after all you would be pretty crazy to repost a completely pointless post, but you do that a lot here.
Your 1p dividend is worth nada! I can't believe you keep bringing it up when this has fallen more than 30% since the interims! Remind me how much SLP rose after you caused a fuss and sold, 25% lol. 1-2% divi and nursing a 30% loss VS 25% gain, keep telling yourself you are right. Project Echo costs are projected to be less than $1m per quarter. Cash generation is multiples of this, it was $5.6m last quarter alone, enough money to take care of an entire years worth of projected capital cost. Any revision I'm sure will be easily covered and then some. Wage negotiations seem to be going pretty well given reports and updates from the leading 3 operators in the country. The PGM basket price is looking solid, platinum lagging. But right now at current prices the company are generating plenty. Last two quarterly updates, production increased setting a new quarterly record. A decline to 15k per quarter for the remaining 3 quarters wold yield annual production of some 62k. Certainly no indications of a steep decline coming. Water shortages okay, grasping at straws. South Africa have long suffered from water shortages, the government has been taking measures for decades. They invested heavily in GM drought tolerant crops and rely on imports to supplement the deficit. They enforce water usage restrictions regularly in urban areas. I very much doubt the big platinum trio will be hit with the effects of water shortages but if any of them are the price of platinum will rally. In any case SLP is a small operation processing chrome tailings dumps, far from the places recently mentioned at risk. Steelpoort is 5km away from our operations. The closest three dams are one adjacent to the Kruger National Park which is running low compared to 2015 levels but the De Hoop dam still has very high levels, albeit a little lower than 2015 and the Grootdraai dam, Mpumalanga is seeing a rise in 2016 water levels in fact. I had not bothered to previously check but it seems the area surrounding is not completely cut off. In fact the De Hoop dam is just 30km away. http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/gauteng-stop-wasting-water-20161106-2
However you try to spin it SLPs share price is all that matters as that is what people trade to make their money. SLP's 52 week low came mid June when the share price traded at 6.25p (£18m). BREXIT effect simply makes this stock appear cheaper when earnings are converted, right now it looks excellent value. If you had simply done your homework and checked you would find the valuation in USD has also been lower before. On a number of occasions in the past 6 months in fact. It's not trading off some imaginary all time low equation whichever way you spin it. The exchange was 1:1.41 in mid June and the share price fell to 6.25 That's £18m which comes to $25.42m The exchange was 1:1.32 in the third week of July and the share price fell to 7.25 That's £20.91m which comes to $27.6m The exchange is currently 1:1.247 and the share price is 7.85 SLP's current market value is £22.7m which equates to a value of $28.3m
Lol give it up, you sold out right at the bottom of an upswing The share price dipped to around 7.3p and you sold the next day at 7.5 - 7.6 (August 31). You had no idea about declining production and from what it sounds like lost your nerve. The share price then surged higher in the following two weeks. It was made plainly clear why that would happen. Quarterly results due. And lo and behold the share price touched 9.75p 11 days later. It's in your posting history. You are fooling noone. I find it amusing you need to list your qualifications as a means of validation yet still choose to lie through your teeth. I wouldn't be surprised if you have bought back in now given the fickle nature you've displayed. For all your qualifications you lack a basic understanding of how markets work. Trading at all time lows in relation to the pound, and...? Have you opened your eyes and seen the devastating effects on miners since the election? SLP was down 10% at it's worst point but has regained some of those losses. Clearly plenty of support at this level hence why I am holding for the next set of results. Easy money to trade once again.
Monty888 - all I see here is a bounce off support. There is no upwards momentum. This has fallen throughout the year and further following the interims. Talk of a better second half is all conjecture at this point without any facts or figures to back up the claims. The SP has fallen substantially though so perhaps this will move higher. Personally I wouldn't put my hard-earned into something hoping for a bounce off lows. SLP deals with a basket of precious metals not just platinum which makes up around 62% of our sales. LMI is a pure platinum play I believe. SLP process palladium and rhodium and together they make up 38% of the PGM basket. I was invested in SHG a couple of weeks ago but sold all my gold plays in the lead up to the election. MARL have held up well but I cannot see the attraction given it's market value is already £88m and is years from production. Dilution will come back to haunt investors there at some point. Gold plays are not currently flavour of the month but then neither are most commodity stocks.
I think momentum is with Cenkos. If one reads carefully the interims talk about a good start to Q2, no more 600k fines. SP at real low. SLP is really a play on platinum. Better value in Shanta and Potentially MARL. Cenkos could also be prone to a takeover at sub 100p also. Especially if the Singapore set up gains good traction.
You would appear to be, quote "so f*cking dumb" as to sell SLP on the eve of a fundamentally positive market update though, 7.6p there or thereabouts I seem to recall. There have been swings since, the last peak I was able to offload stock at 9.4p for example. Not the very top but pretty close. The stock is still in an uptrend. Hence why I rebought 52k worth of stock yesterday. We did agree on something a while back, the importance of trading positions rather than standing still. The difference here is I'm surfing a rising wave where as you're chasing lower lows. You can talk about dividends until you're blue in the face. This what-if scenario has not hindered the company rising more than 60% from January lows to last months highs. When it happens ofcourse the stock will jump much higher! The cash position fell back to $6.7m in the prior quarter before surging to $11.1m. SLP are strengthening the cash position, which fluctuates from quarter to quarter and come January results will include the highest PGM basket price so far this year, likely the highest cash margins we've seen and even more cash generated. You posted here recently you bought some around 114 and were hoping for a 5p interim dividend. I hope you weren't already holding a higher average. You bought more at 92p when the update took you by surprise and again at around 75p. They're the buys you told us about. Anyway face facts, you messed up by blindly trusting management here, because you received a dividend previously. Chasing dividends has cost you here and missed gains at SLP. You didn't see the market was marking this down quite clearly because they were going to miss expectations. There has been no reason since to buy but you have done so twice. Meanwhile you rant on about another stock that is generating quarterly profits, building it's cash position and developing a long term stable production initiative that will see it reap huge rewards as PGM prices creep higher. This the stock you sold at the wrong time for reasons of trust. And you place your trust here? Still you talk about CNKS and 2011 but you miss the most obvious point. CNKS is falling now and has been for quite some time for a very good reason and it will keep doing so until the market gets wind of something positive here. That will come but from what low. I doubt 114p will come around anytime soon. More likely SLP will be touching double digits come January assuming no dividend. Still it's a good learning curve for others though looking in on our posts.
The political system is what it is. People complain the Tories won with only 33% of vote. Yet same would of been true if Labour had sneaked in and formed a coalition with 30% or less votes. End of day Labour needed to convince the voters that it was the right party to lead Britain. Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband failed to do this. Labour is currently 9-13% behind in latest polls. Not great!! To complain about schools and other services struggling is hardly comparable given the growing public debt. You can't continually funnel more money into a system and keep borrowing more. Something has to give. Is there a political will for either party to find a solution to reduce debt and encourgae more money for key services?? Seems unlikely given public unrest about any cuts. CNKS looks set to remain around 74-79p for now. Each time share tries to push up someone keeps selling more stock. I still don't think this is the low price funds will exchange millions of shares. If a fund decides to dump it's stock then the price will fall much harder. Still unclear what a fair price for CNKS is here.
The Majority voted for Brexit, so Why he old up?
Why did the Majority of the British people vote Tories in the General Election last year? was it David Cameron's promise of reducing Immigration? bringing in a Bill of Rights? or was it the promise he made that the Tories would give the people a Referendum on the EU if they won that General Election? The Tories won the General Election, including the Scots and Irish votes, The Majority voted for Brexit, so Why are the remainer's now saying they didn't vote for Brexit?
Brexit? I state what I said after the Brexit vote, We will have an Election next year, can we Trust T. May? I believe Not, Why wait six months to trigger Article 50?remember D. Cameron and his promises? remember T. Blair and why we went to war in Iraq? This Brexit is a joke, we are being lead down a long Murky road, with No ending in site.
In fact all the stocks you listed have performed worse than SLP since the beginning of the year, some more than others. Not that it matters, we all have winners and losers but it's curious given your disgruntled posts about SLP that you maintain CNKS looks out for its shareholders. CNKS has fallen 54% since January. You still believe management are looking out for shareholders? Dividends mean nothing if company value is whittled away!
Haha you think actually researching and calling a stock right is a 'moot point'? I could have jumped in below your average at any time and had I followed you in I would be 18% down and missed out on some 20-25% gains in SLP from a nice bit of swing trading. SIA and LLOY have performed worse than SLP since the start of this year which is 50% up but maybe compared to this junk they don't look so bad though. You misunderstood what 'objectivity' means lol, you need to take your distorted bias out of the equation. If you had done that and your research properly you might have stuck with a winner. SLP are not a marginal play, they are low cost, low output and all thanks to managements decisions. Other PGM plays have multi-bagged because they are marginal and surged as commodities rose, now we are witnessing them giving up their gains. Meanwhile SLP which reports its financial results some 3 months in arrears and actual basket prices 3 months after that is sitting pretty with $11.1m cash and another excellent set of financial results to come this January.
Seems to me the price is dropping so sell orders can be filled here. If Hargreaves Hale is clearing stock buyers will need to be found for this stock. Question is what is currently a fair price for Cenkos? What is the price that funds will bite and buy in here?? A lot of buys coming in at 76p now. 50k of buys is only a fraction of HH 7.9m shares. My guess is they will drip feed daily to reduce their stake. That or offer management a chance to buy up some of it in a chunk. Of course I may be wrong and HH were only adjusting their stock level. The continual fall in the SP makes me doubt this!
Oh come on, you can't see the wood for the trees. Your postings on SLP came across lacking any objectivity which is why I was curious as to how you splash your cash. SLP was due to announce significant increases to cash generation and profits. But I follow many 'leads' on these boards and gave CNKS the benefit of the doubt when I read your assertions this was cheap. However a little company research confirmed my suspicions. This has continued to fall since because those results were terrible as highlighted and I doubt this is bottom either. You can berate me or the stocks I trade, it matters not to me. I post here to remind myself of the decisions I make, so don't flatter yourself.
Well if you pick them like this then good luck to you! Down another 12% since I last posted because quite clearly the market has been spooked by those awful results. Meanwhile SLP are up nearly 20% on those stellar first quarter results I was telling you about, exceeding expectations.
Looks like Hargreaves Hale are reducing down here. Their holding has fallen by over 2%. I wonder if they intend to sell their entire stake or just reduce it?? Or perhaps just selling stock back to management? Either way short term this will have an impact here. The stock management is now buying back is becoming worth less and less at current prices?? Good money after bad? Hmmm.
Also in your tirade it seems you forgot to mention that CNKS recently choose to step up share purchases for the Employee Benefit Trust. This coming at a time when the company's business is drying up, you would think the BOD would be cutting back on spending. The guys in charge sure love taking care of their own don't you think? "On 28 April 2016 Cenkos announced that the trustees of the Cenkos EBT had launched a share purchase plan to buy up to £50,000 of Cenkos shares a month. 102,000 shares were purchased in H1 2016 under this plan at a cost of £142,571. The increase in the size of the Company's EBT reflects, in part, the potential future demand for Cenkos' shares to satisfy share awards under the Company's 2015 deferred bonus scheme." No doubt Zedra Trust Company (Guernsey) Limited will benefit from this arrangement and the employees but no recompense for shareholders sat nursing losses at these 52 week lows. Oh and it states the EBT and other related trusts currently hold 3,171,366 shares at last count worth more than £3m. Not enough for Cenkos who want to share their success through this 'bonus scheme'. In fact we only have to go back as far as March to see the Directors were awarded shares!! So that's SLP and CNKS that "fills its management's boots with shares from profits" to use your words. All Executive Directors participate in the SIP still I guess if you're blinded by a 1p interim dividend coming your way then it's all good.. Meanwhile in the real world net assets fell 38% from £40m to £25m and cash took the brunt of the hit down 58% to £20m. Before you tell me it's still £20m the company need an ever increasing percentage of this to satisfy capital liquidity. Now let's just look at the rest of those results of the company you're happy to hold Profit before tax down 91% to £1.7 million Profit after tax down 96% to £0.7 million Oh but that's okay because money doesn't matter and they were ranked number 2 Nominated Adviser by number of AIM clients and number 3 Nominated Adviser by client market capitalisation by Adviser Rankings Limited's July 2016 'AIM Adviser Rankings Guide'. Great for shareholders, they should be proud. CNKS are struggling to attract business as total funds raised by AIM companies only fell by 30% to £1,931 million in H1 2016, when compared to H1 2015. But even as they are losing business wit revenue down 71% what's really worrying is profits fell much faster. The only saving grace was mention of a number of significant fundraisings slipping into H2 2016. But I envisage a H2 way down on last year as there are no macro indicators suggesting otherwise. Which means further slippage in the weeks and months ahead