The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Thanks Color - Yes I see now. Issued May 12th.
But I can't get access to it, even through the CMET website, Maybe it'll become available later as all the previous notes were accessible. If they are saying fair value at 31p now, then that has decreased as it was at 33p.
Can't share it but google it; WH Ireland released a note about it; think they see fair value currently at 31p then much higher 70p+ on licence/production.
Of course this in the in-house broker so always uber bullish but 30mil a year EBITDA is many multiples of the current MCAP so makes sense.
I'm wondering if we can expect an update from WHIRELAND given the DFS or whether they'll wait until IML/OFFTAKE. According to their last analysis these events significantly derisk the project.
This has absolutely everything going for it, crazy low share price, financing seemingly in place, significant near term growth with massive upside, tightly held stock and not a large free float. I would imagine that there's lots of money on the side lines waiting for IML to be granted first. Once it is granted, you would expect there to be strong buying. I wonder if we will see institutional interest as well at that point?
I am happy to accept that GSMB have been impacted operationally due to the various issues in Sri Lanka, and that this is the reason for delay. (For example, Titanium Sands alluded to this in one of their recent updates to the market.) What we need in the meantime, is a positive update from MF about the IML process and the GSMB.
Yes seems that way. Definitely a pick up in activity; jury is out on whether this is just pure hope or whether this is the main event soon. Despite all the bad news about the condition in Sri Lanka, Frayne seems quite upbeat. The new PM wants investment and desperately needs FOREX. This would by assumption grease the wheels and stop any bureauacy holding us up. The moment production becomes a possibility, any discount model will put us at many multiples of the current market cap. 30mil EBITDA (thanks PFG) is a 2 bagger of current market cap just in year 1. This valuation is absurd. I'd be dying to enter at this level if it was my first buy in point but unfortunately it is not :(
The promotional activity is definitely being stepped up with these back to back interviews, and it does seem like things are stepping up here. We now just need a positive sounding update regarding the IML, which hopefully will come from the TMS interview. By the sounds of it, an offtake agreement, isn't too far away either. With the Govt in crisis, what better way to show its ability and actions in resolving the economic issues than to announce major projects like this?
Small technical correction color,
£30m is EBITDA
REVENUE is $70M, or I think he said £60m elsewhere
Yes agreed PFG re: land access issues. IT was asked whether CMET needed to speak to lots of individual farmers/owners and he said no, government was most of the owners and the EIA had covered a lot of it. Don't see an issue here.
A lot of PR over the weekend albeit small bits. Feels like a significant ramp up but then that's only because we've been starved of anything for ages. I hope the IML etc is very very close and this isn't just padding for time. When you've got a CEO saying 30mil a year revenue to start, costs being covered by offtakers and still no interest from the market; it's very disappointing. His credibility is still tainted by timeline sloppiness; when this becomes to good an opportunity to ignore as I hope it will post IML; the SP should begin to move quite rapidly.
MF briefly discuss on a TMS podcast I cannot remember which one but he basically said this was part of the iml process and a lot of the land they needed to access was government-owned so they didn't see that at the problem and the gsmb will help them negotiate with the remaining parts which were privately owned
Short answer it was discussed and doesn't appear to be a major issue
Just wanted to ask if any information has ever been released about land access negotiations? The EIA / IML won't mean much if CML haven't got permission to access the land either with any individuals or state authorities holding the land. Assume there would also be significant payments involved in any agreements?