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100% confident
nothing has changed
When you have a seller all fundamentals are out-of the window , but what it does is create a buying opportunity
In terms of the drill , I'm not sure the average PI understands the drill, its not your standard wildcat exploration drill, these can be under 10% COS
With our drill yes it's exploration but the risks are proven in the basin
Seal
Trap
Reservoir
Charge
It's all in place
But the play here is there is a discovery downdip to Sasanof , which was filled to spill
So what that means, the structure at Mentorc was filled with gas and condensate and then the hydrocarbons spilled out of the Prospect and migrated elsewhere
Generally they migrate updip to the next trap
So with confirmation mentorc is downdip and filled to spill and sasanof is updip of mentorc , the theory is all the gas and condensate has travelled updip to Sasanof and trapped there
The risk is seal- if the seal isn't present at Sasanof the gas and condensate will have migrated elsewhere but as we have been told they know where the gas isn't as stated on the clon interview shared today, but could well be updip at sasanof
The data from Glencoe 3D that found mentorc and all the other discoveries close by, is the strong amplitutdesand DHI, which have also been identified at Sasanof on the data which suggests the gas and condensate has migrated there
Still stupidity cheap. Surely near done. Tick tock. Major drill in play :::)))))))
Dicko80
Excellent recap.
Mind boggles with the 88% success rate and 15 discoveries out of 17 wells at Equus Gas which sits just north of Sasanof.
No wonder North Western Shelf is becoming a HOT SPOT for all the Majors.
Agree. Staggering Upside from crazy low MCap currently. But that should soon change.
That whole area is full of recorded Giant discoveries all around Sasanof which if you look on the map is 10 x times larger than some recent discoveries. That area is now a HOT SPOT for Majors already present and NEW ones looking to get in.
No brainer. Even 1p soon would look cheap.
In it to win it...as they say.
Doubled up today. The scale of opportunity here is quite frankly staggering!
Also factor in the horrendous Russia/Ukraine situation and consequential stranded assets. IF this does land their could be a bidding frenzy given the price of gas and that it is more widely accepted as a transitional fuel.
Gotta be in with a chance to win!
There’s more chance here of 10 bagging in a short space of time than anything else I am aware of!
Usual caveats
Trek
"Majors in the area like Woodside/BHP, Exxon and Chevron are already investing heavily in their North West Shelf projects. Given the scale of the Sasanof prospect, a new discovery could lead to a takeover by major players already in the region, or alternatively it could be the “entry asset” for a major who is looking for a flagship project to get exposure to Australian gas.
In 2018, Japanese conglomerate Mitsui acquired AWE for $602M. AWE had a ~380 billion cubic feet (Bcf) proved resource, this transaction is a signal of the appetite internationally for Australian gas projects.
AWE had a net 2P resource of 410 petajoules (388 billion cubic feet), valuing the transaction at ~$1.5M per BCF of gas resource
Almost 18x the size of AWE’s resources, at the $1.5M per BCF number,
Sasanof would have a value of $11 BILLION p50(if it comes in)."
hxxps://catalysthunter.com/oil-gas/sasanof-companies/our-latest-investment/
Clon 10% share of P50 $11 billion
$1.1 billion
Current mkt cap ÂŁ13m
Recap what's on offer
"world class" prospect
"high impact" wells of 2022
High Success rate around the area -The Equus Gas Project has a historic exploration drilling success rate of 88%, with 15 discoveries from 17 wells.
4 way dip closed structure with structural stratigraphic trap
updip and on trend to next door discovery at Mentorc field
Mentorc is expected to feed into Sasanof and is expected to be "filled to spill"
Sasanof is supported by DHI (DIRECT HYDROCARBON INDICATORS) with strong seismic amplitudes
"Through the licencing and reprocessing of 3D seismic in the area Western Gas has developed an exploration
portfolio of over 20 leads and prospects from Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous in age. These opportunities range from low risk Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator (DHI) supported Triassic prospects similar to many fields in the
region."
hTTps://www.westerngas.com.au/sites/default/files/Western%20Gas%20Sasanof%20Announcement%2020210709.pdf
multiple 3D Seismic surveys completed, all of high quality but the most advanced is The Glencoe 3D, the most technically advanced and important to note the Glencoe 3D was used on over 20 wells in the surrounding Equs Block , which had a very high success rate, so the data is considered excellent quality..
to add to this further ...
the Glencoe 3D was used for the discovery next door to Sasanof on the Mentorc field...
the Glencoe 3D identified the Mentorc field on seismic by having strong amplitutde as per Sasanof ..
But what makes the Glencoe 3D even more interesting...
subsequent analysis of the Mentor discovery showed flat spot amplitude & GWC within 1metre on Glencoe 3D....
P50 in place
24TCF & 1.1 Billion bbls of condensate
recoverable
7.2 Tcf gas and 176 Million bbls condensate
filled to spill recoverable
• 17.8 Tcf and 449 Million bbl - High Case (3U)
..................
Its interesting to note that Westerngas gave the Sasanof a 72% COS back in 2019
please see page 6
hTTps://www.westerngas.com.au/sites/default/files/Will%20Barker%2C%20Western%20Gas%20-%20LNGA%202019.pdf
mean 4.2
risked 3.1
How do they get 72% GCOS ?
Reservoir 0.9 x trap 0.9 seal 0.9 = .729%
That's right 90% Chance for all 3
............
Looks to have a lot in its favour at what can only be described as a MONSTER at 505km in size
cross section , side by side against Mentorc discovery
page 3
hTTps://www.westerngas.com.au/sites/default/files/Western%20Gas%20Sasanof%20Good%20Oil%20Final%20070921.pdf
.........
Presentation by Alex Parks MD of one of our partners on the drill, prominence energy
"It's gona be huge"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUyihbF1D-g
.......
Event of success
If the drill is successful, we expect the plan will be to sell the project to one of the energy majors already operating in the North West Shelf - or potentially be an asset that would attract a new major onto the NW Shelf."
"Majors in