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Could it be the case that out-of-court negotiations are taking place with Cineplex, and that CINE doesn’t want to reveal the full state of their trading as a means of leveraging their position in the talks?
Pure speculation, but remember that Mooky said ‘we are considering all options’.
Good morning @Hexam, I don’t see why they would stay silent too, but my assumption is just that because they already listed this outcome on the annual report, they find no need for it.
They may be waiting to do a large RNS all in one, where they update us on the RCF, dissenting payment and trading update too.
@mountainous - I agree with your logic and so agree that what you say is perfectly plausible.
Given though that they aren't shy to talk good news I'm surprised they just haven't told us. The argument that they want to downplay things because of the court case is I think far-fetched as the interims will lay bare the financial position anyway so Cineplex just have to wait for these before making any move ahead of the case.
I think it is more likely that things have just gone to the wire and that we will see an RNS soon.
But it's all speculation - we just don't know so little point worrying about it.
I was thinking about the fact that no RNS appeared may actually be a very good thing.
CINE already told us their projections/predictions for what they will be able to do with the RCF. They told us that they estimated BO to return to 85% and that they will be able to reduce the RCF to below 35% to avoid the test from memory. If this was any different, then CINE would have to update us. The fact that they didn’t release anything perhaps suggests that CINE has actually been able to reduce the RCF as projected, and CINE already told us that was their expectation, so perhaps they don’t need to release an RNS for it.
With the dissenting payment, if you look at the language of that RNS it talks about maximising liquidity. Not once amongst all the RNS’s for the dissenting payments does it mention them seeking the waiver so they will actually be able to pay it, it just talks about maximising liquidity. Therefore, it may be the case that CINE was able to pay these dissenting shareholders right from the very start of when they got the waiver, and there was never any concern about whether they’d be able to pay or not. Remember that CINE paid $170m on the spot already, and all they had to pay at this time was $96m, that really isn’t too much at all.
All in my opinion.
@Yuri.f Dépréciation and Amortisation are not a cash out expenses. In the income statement D&A are useful to lower the tax liabilities. As a way of update the Government owes Cine circa $160m in terms of negative tax. The amount of the D&A must be added up back to the cash flow statement in the operating activities.
Wages expense : $100m
Financial cost : $800m (it was at $786m for 2021)
Capex : $150m
So we need to have $1,050m of Adjusted EBITDA with a margin of 33.3% Cine needs a revenu of c. $3,160m.
Bloomberg forecast the revenu of Cine for 2022 at $3,700m. So we can easily break even this year. As I said before don’t be worried if you see a negative profit for 2022 they will increase the D&A in order to have a negative taxes again. So the government can pay back Cineplex!
The SP closed the day at 0.2505 € which is almost exactly where it started the day.
@cruis1 how 16% down on US Cine share price would have an effect on Monday morning. Are we expecting 16% down to start with. Very hard to see SP being hammered.
Their overheads for running office is around 50m a year (up to 100m once they scale back up through recovery),
Depreciation/Amortization are sitting at 600m,
then annual interest at current increasing rates should go above 700m,
With challenging margin of 30%-40% and significantly reduced filled capacity to break-even they would need 4b revenues per annum.
Liquidity is critical, equity is negative, there's court decision pending for 1b,
to justify current price they will need at least a decade of successful operations in a healthy markets
(but it will take couple of years to even get there .. after recession).
shorters are firmly holding positions here not just at random but knowing how inevitable obvious outcome is.
For the 2nd biggest Cinema chain for the IR depth to say they are short staffed is an insult to share holders, do we think it's Mrs Mooky working from home on the company laptop ?
Absolutely disgrace a lack of any information from the management .
Good evening @Chipstacker, thanks for copying and pasting this.
Yes, I did see it last week. It is simply not good enough. You’re a multi-billion pound company. If a huge prospective investor came and dropped an email to IR and they took several days to respond (or not respond at all) what appearance does that give?
Mountainous, as promised:
We very limited on resources and staffing at the moment.
We are happy to answer questions on financials /investment case / clarify information in our reports like we do with all our shareholders/debt investor on a daily basis.
However we will not comment or respond to questions we cannot answer such as if and when we will issue an RNS and why we did not, requests to issue statement/press release to reassure the market.
All material updates on the Company or the Cineplex case are always released as soon as possible via RNS (this is a regulatory requirement)
I hope this answers your question
Cineworld Group plc
It made a comeback but then dropped 16% (yahoo finance) i Wouldn’t worry about it, worry about Monday morning hopfully a up day
I did not see the SP drop 17% intraday today. Which website do you use to track US Trading hours pricing?
They know investors are going to sell when they meet their breakeven target .
I was going to pump in 46k this week and it bloody dropped even lower and lower.
Now I’m saying thanks god I don’t pump in massive amount. Just Because I don’t want to have another unsurprised Monday like 15th December.
This would allow me to take my all money out with only 3p increase . But it is so risky . I rather to lose what I have there then loosing it all .
But we need a clear answer from someone in the company. This isn’t the way business gets done .
I emailed IR to ask this earlier today. No response yet (nor to my email a couple of days back asking whether the Mooky article was legitimate). Mountainous, i don't know if you saw my post last week, containing the response from IR to my multiple prior queries about why they are so poor at communicating to shareholders; I'm on my phone at the mo, but will copy and paste it when I'm home. They basically said they're short-staffed, plus some other gumpf. I wasn't impressed, to be fair.
Metom if you're worried about the US price being down 17% well now it's down only 0.6%.
Like I said keep the faith lol
I can't see it going bust tbh.
Why would banks support you through the pandemic and give you counless loans and liquidity only to pull the rug from under you just when you are back at almost full capacity and revenue streaming in, movie slates being briiliant, revenue via all sorts of things like advertising, food, drinks etc,?. Hundreds of millions are pouring in from the likes of top gun and others before and after.
They won't or can't let it go under now at this stage when everything has virtually gone back to normal and the banks will be getting their money back and some. Everyone getting paid. Makes no sense for anyone to let cine go under. Only makes sense for thr shorters to grt their big pay day
Keep the faith, ignore the doom and gloomers
Mr Moshe (Mooky) Greidinger Chief Executive
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Agreed shazabo, this is just getting out of hand now.
They know full well that investors are aware of the RCF and dissenting payment deadline being today.
We need to contact IT and ask them what the fuk is going on and why shareholders are left in the dark about everything?!
@Metom, to be very honest today has been difficult for me to. It is just so frustrating that the company isn’t telling us anything. They know full well that investors are waiting to see what is going to happen with the RCF and dissenting payment today but we have heard NOTHING. It’s almost like the BoD are teasing us.
This is the issue with not keeping investors informed, it creates fear.
To be honest to you guys , we will go bust . I can not see cine to recover .
Another 17% drop in Us .
My investment worth 6k now down 9k.
Monday will be surprising Rns just like 15th December when we had one.
And if you wonder why I’m still not selling ? Well it is all ****ed up might aswell let it all go .
If there is a miracle something happens then happy days .
Let's be fair. You're not posting that for any reason other than the hope of convincing others to sell because of your short position. I have no issue of people with short positions, until they start posting doom and gloom theories in the hope of making money.